Button folded twice in the hand.

You bet small to encourage him to stay in with bad hands. Can't get too worried now about villain slow playing a monster. Another small bet to get his middle pairs to make a crying call is the best option. $55 looks good.

At this point hope you don't get raised because you just be guessing what he misplayed.

Yeah, that looks right. I’m probably on the light end there like $70–75

Yup

Being up against the case 5 is pretty much the lone reason for attempting to get in 4 streets worth of betting.

Expecting to get called for 4 streets by Ace high / pairs (plus somehow thinking that you're up against opponents who don't realize underpairs have been counterfeited) at a table that has seen 1 showdown in 3 orbits seems ambitious.

ETA: I'm in the Jay S check back turn camp for much of the reasons he explained (which also applies to pretty much the only drawing hand of 76 villain can have, setting up a trivial bluff catcher spot that will almost never call a turn bet but will often attempt to rep the fullhouse on the river thanks to our weak looking turn check).

GimoG

Sure. I’m not disagreeing, we can be beat here if our opponent has some tricky to him. And obv there’s the consideration that we can see 3 of the 5’s but only 2 of the 8’s.

But in general, very few players are capable of taking a big hand and playing it passively in order to get you to value cut or bluff too often.

Think about it, what’s a common weakness of live 1/2 players? Usually not betting the river often enough, as a bluff and especially for value. So instinctually, these guys don’t check their monsters OOP to induce a bluff or a thin value bet, because too often, the other guy just checks it back.

So when he doesn’t bet at any point, we have to start discounting 8x hands. Plus you never know when he’ll get heroic with a hand like 99 here. Hence why I think bet folding is pretty clearly a superior line


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I'll admit, it's certainly not a line I'd expect to see from 8x, so by the time he checks the river he certainly has done a good job of tricking us if this is what he has.

Overall I was more commenting towards our turn decision (where I think a check back is better than a bet).

GcluelessingeneralnoobG

Fair enough. I think checking turn can make a lot of sense if our villain isn’t straightforward on the turn.


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needle him and bet $25. Honestly he probably has like KJ high and thought he could outplay you by drawing to a pair.

I like a turn check back here because it is hard to get two more streets from worse. Check looks weak and will encourage payoff on river

I check turn, we no longer have a strong value hand, we encourage villain to stab river and if he doesn't, he will call our river bet with A-high.

Pre I raise. Maybe limp reraise it BU is the type who tries to punish the limpers on his straddle.

Turn is a clear bet I think given that we are IP. He shouldn’t have that many light flop floats that bluff river. His floats will mostly be hands like AT or KJ etc that won’t bluff river. Given that he won’t have many river bluffs, we should go for three smallish streets. If it was a broadway card that paired it would be different, but it’s an 8, which he shouldn’t have too many of. Yea every now and then we own ourselves against an 8 but that’s not really a disaster as long as we can confidently bet/fold.

If he’s only calling three streets with trips or better than he’s probably pretty exploitable there, and most people don’t exploit overfold live in these types of spots.

If you think we mostly can only get one more street then x turn and put in a small overbet on river.

If we are OOP I could get more behind a turn x at some frequency since he should have more floats and stabs.