The thought about 3 betting shouldn't even enter your mind. You can't just press buttons without thinking about stack sizes, position, and most important the villains UTG opening range.

You shouldn't 3bet as a bluff pre to hope and pray they fold. You need to expect they flat so you have a plan for the whole hand and you're not lost when they call (I actually prefer they flat pre, since I make more money post flop when they fold the flop/turn). In this hand I would have folded pre the first time. You're over valuing a junk hand just because it's "suited" (especially someone who's bankroll is so short you can't even buy in full - you shouldn't be making these moves or you will go broke fast).

read the stickies again

OK it’s a new day. Time for an update.

Shorty folds. Hero now rather disgusted with the way the hand has played out flats $100 because obv V not folding to jam right? Pot $208. Flop: 5x-6-x-7h. V ships $180. H?

I fold preflop. We don't know if we're going to get 3bet, we don't know if anyone else is coming along for the ride, we'll likely end up OOP to some opponents, the raiser doesn't strike me as a moron (are we really going to make money off a "TAG reg", if anything we're more interested in whether the first caller is a massive whale and yet that doesn't even matter given how short he is), we have one of our nutmaking outs dead, etc.

Like I argued for in your last A8sooted thread, in order for speculative hands to be profitable they most likely require (a) a cheap flop and (b) position, and we'll probably end up with neither.

ETA: I don't like the 3bet from MP at all as this is just far too early to be getting out-of-line (there's far too many people who can wake up behind you with a hand). Plus, I give EP raises from tight players (the "T" in "TAG") mad respect. Trivial fold at this point facing the reraise; yeah, it's a minraise giving us good immediate odds (and we might have to call if this was an all-in, I'll let the math guys figure out whether A4s is good enough against his range getting 3:1 and getting to see all 5 cards postflop), but with chips behind and only being able to see the flop and our RIO outweighing our IO, pretty horrible to continue here.

ETA: I remain unconvinced that we need a loose 3bet range at all at LLSNL. But if we really think we do, then we have to pick our spots *much* better (ex. a loose limp / folded to an active guy in LP with us on the Button).

ETA#2: Flop is just a math question. Getting just over 2:1, i'm guessing it's likely a borderline ~breakevenish+ call with our OESD + backdoor flush + overcardthatmayormaynotbegood.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Again, why are you thinking about jamming pre? A good player is one who knows how to fold.

Otf we're 30% vs AA and about 40% vs KK, AK and other over pairs. We're not getting good odds to call but I know you didn't get to this point to fold an OESD.

The pot is $208 and we're risking $180 to win $568. Need 31% which I have, right?

And for a 4! pot with a bluff, I think I kinda smashed this flop tbh.

Against AA/KK we have 40% equity, and we're getting over 2:1 on the call, so it's a actually a fairly trivial call against even the tightest of ranges at this point.

ETA: Actually forgot to include the fact that one of our flush outs was exposed, to that will bring down our equity a bit, but I doubt to the point where this isn't a pretty easy flop call.

GimoG

AA would be 30% which is what the hand looks like he's up against. There was also an exposed heart.

I'm blocking AA, so I discount it in his overpair combos. He's more likely to have KK, QQ, where our A is live. Probably closer to 40% equity against his range than 30.

Edit: Indeed, flopzilla says I'm 42% against AA, KK, QQ. The exposed heart represents a fraction of a percent in equity since we're talking about a bdfd anyway.

That's fair enough, although that is obviously the worst case scenario and it's still basically ~breakevenish. He doesn't have to show up with KK very often (or anything else) to push this to +EV.

Gstill,weshouldn'tbeinthisspotG

General comment, not on this hand in particular, but on the body of work, both posting style and hands posted: OP, you need to work on your patience. You force things too much.

vs AA w/10h dead
Win : 31.82%

Late to the game here, but I agree with pretty much all that has been said. Fold both times is optimal pre...you aren't deep enough to try and squeeze here as your SPR is going to be low when called. Save these plays for when you have at least 200 blinds so you can manouever a little.

AP, given that you may have as many as 11 outs vs a lot of his range, I think i call his ship here. But I am not in this spot like ever so maybe that is the wrong play.

Assuming OP has taken into account rake / BBJ drop / tip in the pot size, we need 31.69% to breakeven. So even if we're only shown AA (which given the way Villain played the hand is kinda likely as who min 4bets KK), we still have a breakeven call. Plus we might be able to do wonders for our image if after snap calling the flop we insta table it and declare "I had the nuts the whole way".

GcluelessNLnoobG

Trivial flop call.

I did call of course. He instantly tabled QQ. I tabled A4hh when the 8 hit ott. You should have seen the dealer’s face when I showed my hand. He was like wtf?

Definitely did wonders for my image since a few hands later I l/rr and a shorty jammed with 86dd against my AKhh.

SPR is under 1, we only need like 31.6% equity to get AI, flop is a trivial call.

KK or QQ made the most sense given how the hand played out and that you had a blocker to AA. Your best decision in the hand was calling the jam on the flop.

OP im just gonna say this - you are leveling yourself way too much for a $1/3 game. dont need to be thinking about your 4b bluffs and board textures in 4b pots when SPR is like 1, etc. this hand was a pretty massive punt and variance eventually catches up

Semi-Grunch +1 though with A4s it should be super sparingly/ situational IMO (so you should be folding most of your A4s...) we don't need much reason to fold and a heart being dead and a 30 BB cold caller are good reasons, fold. If the cold caller was over 150 and a fish and Hello Kitty was getting out of line from UTG I would be okay with it...

trivial flop call...honestly you don't need that many 3-bet squeeze bluffs (and with the shorty prob need none) and in the right spots can use hands like AxTx and KxJx and AxQy that have more equity to 4-bet fold (against a normal sized raise against the click back I still prob fold Ax4x...) and yes a few combos of Ax5x and (fewer combos) of Ax4x are fine just pick a better spot next time.

Congratulations on the winning hand! He got it in good against you but you hit one of your outs which is all that counts.

Poker will be great for a long time

I don’t see any reason to play this hand. By way of background I play a lot of hands and 3-bet almost certainly more than most on this board. To use online terms my VPIP/RFI/3bet% are higher than most 2+2 on this forum and I’m tossing this in the muck.

I’m going to be very tight vs UTG and +1, +2 openers from MP unless they are the biggest fish. 3-betting only QQ+ and AK+. Only calling with 77+ T9s+ and ATs+.

Only read OP. Other thoughts to follow.

Beat him into the pot, it’s about as good for you as it’s going to get short of a flopped flush.

You should have 40% equity vs KK here. You’ll have less vs AA but KK is the most likely hand.

I hate the way the hand has played to this point but folding now is bat ****. You only need 32% to call and you have that vs V’s range. Evan if he just has AA it’s about breakeven.

Pre is atrocious and has been beaten already, but seriously? Just snap it off.

Every decision in this hand is pretty evident and should be automatic. You arent a TAG if you’re playing A4hh like this given dynamics, and the exposed 10h

He will have AA at much higher frequencies than QQ, and KK at higher frequencies than QQ. I’d say if he has 3 AA here, he has 5-6 KK, 1-3 QQ. Still a trivial flop call though.

Not to mention sometimes he spazzes with AK.