lol no

i probably fold pre. possibly 3b

RaiseAnnounced: Nice posts ITT.

Are you able to think through your entire range like this in play? If so how did you go about speeding up your thoughts? Learning off table or just tons of experience? Please don't tell me it comes naturally - I like to maintain some hope I can improve by working at it!

I keep intending to start a longwinded project of running through a lot of model flops for all my ranges (and some generic villain ranges; read: looser than mine!). Just wondering if that's something you've done?

The short answer is work at it.

Even things that feel like they come "naturally" isn't some innate, god-given ability to reckon that 9-high flush draws interact poorly with multiple ranges. It's really just stuff that's been studied and confirmed so many times over such a long period that now it's become intuition.

I'd also say that you'll always feel like you suck at the tables relative to where you're at mentally off the tables. That's just study lag. Anything that I've started to get a grasp on in the last several months is still in beta mode when I apply it, to the point that anything I've been working on the last few weeks is probably doing me more harm than good.

But think of the stuff you were working on a year ago that seemed really complicated to you then. You're pretty much crushing at that part of the game now, aren't you?

It pretty much has to become second nature (or all the caveats of the various heuristics have to become so well-oiled to get the overall heuristic humming along) before you actually feel like you don't suck at that part of your game when you're only given 30 seconds for each action in a hand.

This applies to my posts ITT. The range I naturally would have guessed at would have been really heavy on r/f hands, and that would have had very real effects on how I would have played it in-practice (I probably would have flatted QJdd in practice, just as one very moderate example). If I don't look into what factors contribute to that tendency, then I'll probably find out by getting owned a few times in a row and bleeding USD at the tables. That is, assuming I'll run into someone who's aggressive enough to exploit that in me, which is luckily not super common at my stakes, which probably contributes to my blindspot in this area.

Anyway, yeah, definitely worth working on it. And you know how you are with recognizing good flop cbetting textures and things like that? That's eventually how you get with any part of your game you study.

Although I believe this, I need to actually try & grow a set & do it. See how it works out. I believe my passive line led to my demise.

Now this I learned long ago.

I don't know if I already mentioned this, but I saw a hand go down [in a 1/2 game] where a 2/5 Reg flopped the nut str8 draw & 2nd nut flush draw with his KJs.

When the turn paired his king, he went all-in for $325, which was ~125% of the pot. Both of his 2 Vs called. One had about 75% of the $325, the other had about 40-50% of it.

The river was a dud & he announced his hand as he turned it over. Next player showed AQs with a pair of Qs & the nut flush draw. The other guy didn't show.

Anyways, in this hand, I'm sure there is nobody here that thought I did anything other than fold on the turn.

V didn't show. He didn't look back at his cards, as if he had just pulled off a bluff, and he didn't smile. He just raked in the pot & gave the dealer a conservative tip.

There was a lot of great feedback in this thread.

Good thread Zune. I don't know what your physical demeanor is like at the table but my only advice would be use that image to your advantage when situations like this come up and you can wield way more FE than someone like a 25 year old Asian raising here.

Not sure if you were referring to me, but I would have a near nonexistent flatting range on this flop. The bottom of my value raising range is KJ, so hands like K9s and worse I may flat, though I may still raise them in real time based on live reads if I think I'm good. QJ with no diamonds I'll peel a street as well and maybe some Tx with BDFD's but that's about it.

I'm not trying to push the thread past its usefulness here, but could I follow up on this?

Can you help me understand how KJ might be a value raise while 98dd is a semi-bluff? If we can *value* raise with KJ, that means KJ beats a decent % of villains' calling ranges. So villains call with lots of hands worse than KJ? Like lots of worse Kx? Draws? Pairs + backdoor draws?

If so, how are we also getting enough hands to fold when we semi-*bluff* raise with 98?

Do you think a raise with KJ serves a dual purpose of getting value from worse made hands *and* getting villains to fold draws?

Permutations dude. I have no idea what the future may bring. If I raise KJ I am not expecting to get called often by a worse made hand. The most likely outcome for raising is folds in my opinion.

If I get called, I'm expecting to be up against mostly draws and occasionally better hands, but once again, the times I get called are a pretty small subset of the total permutations.

I think we have tons of FE in this situation, so much so that it sickens me to see anyone advocating to call considering the circumstances mentioned in pages past which I'm not going to repeat ad nauseam.

Wow, OK, I got it - it sounds like you're seeing there really is a HUGE amount of FE here.

Do you ballpark we get folds like 50%+ of the time? 75%+?

Short of pulling numbers out of my ass - with the PFR checking, a semi-weak stab bet of $30 into $50 and a weak call, I think a pot sized raise elicits folds at bare minimum 50% of the time with a legit possibility of 75% depending on villain tendencies. I can't speak on behalf of how bad these villains are, but I am licking my chops that I just got an opportunity to steal 55 BB's versus a weak and capped range.

Obviously this is assuming the PFR plays fairly straight forward and his check means he likely missed or has an underpair rather than doing some FPS check/raise BS.

The corollary is I don't often expect us to get called when we have a value hand like KT, TT or 66, but we are forced to raise anyway to protect our hand. 66 probably gets us the most calls due to lack of blockers, but yah, sad face when we have 66 and the table folds which happens quite often. Just think of all the times you raise your sets on dynamic flops and the entire table folds. Kind of soul crushing. So use that to your advantage with a hand like 98s here.

I very rarely disagree with you so strong Willy, but it looks like it just boiled down to our estimation of FE. Interesting how that causes our arguments to diverge so strongly. Good discussion.

OK cool man, and thanks. I appreciate the good discussion.

Nice thread, Zune.

How do we reconcile this with your previous post about how raising flop in Hero's spot thins the field to primarily made hands, meaning that if we hit our draw it's usually good?

^ I was about to ask the very same question

Also I still disagree that we have a tons of fold equity at any point in this hand beyond preflop. Maybe my game is just super stationy though...

Blockers. When we have KJ we don't block any of the draws. When we have 98s we dont block any of the made hands.

Fair point.

Yes, I don't think enough about blockers myself. There is a COTM on blockers that's wrtha read. I'm going to try to incorporate it more into my thinking I'm future.

Anyway, thanks for a good PAHWM ZuneIt (and other posters too!) and congrats on the good run. I hope it keeps running and I'm sure a good % of it is down to your improving game