Try again...

limp pre
i like calling flop

the villains can make is pot size bet roughly 1:1. .....Assuming utg has no hand (because of his weak ass flop bet). He has deeper effective stack, but meaningless in this hand.

We would obviously be getting 2:1.

(Maybe my math is wrong, but pretty sure the pot is roughly $200 if everyone flats, effective stacks are $190 ish, I don't feel like browsing back through thread to double check)

Go on. Tell me how our draw equity will cover 2:1, when the 4 straight or flush card comes out.

They will have zero bluffs in there range, at that point.

Vs' ranges?

On a flat,

Wide as possible, any pair, flush draws, combo draws, even naked gutter draws (which is just terrible to offer them odds to draw)

No, after turn action.

Can Vs have non-nuted hands still?

Underset, 2p, P+NFD, p+SD?

IOW, hero has 22% chance of boat/quads.

Given he needs 33% to correctly call anr shove OTT.

Can we find 11% of V's range that we beat unimproved?

What about if V2 and V3 both shove?

The advice ITT is a disaster.

LOL at pre being a "pot sweetener." LOL at $15.

I slowplay probably more than anyone but I would just raise/gii on the flop. If they just call shove any turn.

Dont know what IOW means?

Shoving 100% of turns sounds like spew to me.

If V2 and V3 both shove turn we are roughly 3:1. Still not getting correct odds to draw. At this point, you most certainly behind if 4 straight or flush card hits turn.

Also why do want to wait to shove turn, not flop? What turn cards help us create equity?

Obviously you have to admit. Allowing all jacks a free turn is harmful?

Lap, what you're arguing is hypothetical since all the money went in on the flop. Both Vs' ranges look standard. (one FD and the other P+SD)

What happened to just getting value out of hand when the value is there to get? Flatting a flop bet just gives the other V's odds to draw if they had chosen to take them.

On a side note, I don't personally think either V was going to fold here based on what OP said. I think OP got a little lucky that both V's in position pushed and allow him to get the max that he could have gotten. I think the hand would have gotten real interesting had OP been in the position to lead on the turn. I think sizing would have been crucial there.

Okay, Lap you sucked me in.

If we slow play this hand. We risk allowing hands to draw for correct price. How do we make up that risk.

What ranges of hands, do we gain value from by allowing to see turn card for dirt cheap?

IMO, the point you are missing is the information available to Hero at the time of the decision at hand (1st time through the flop).

At this point, we know only:

1) V1 is very unlikely to have a FD or SD, and most likely has a PP. Hero's hand crushes V1's range.

2) V2's range is capped at something like [TT-, AK-, ...] but probably is on the weaker side since he did not chose to open raise pre. Hero's hand crushes this range.

3) V3's range is super wide. Hero's hand crushes this range.

Hero's hand, while not invincible, is a monster. It is strong enough that given stacks, folding at any point in the hand would be a tremendous mistake.

Also, Hero's hand has outs to the effective nuts.

Therefore, Hero can afford to take the line that allows V2 and V3 the maximum chance of putting more $$$ into the pot.

Individually, V2 and V3 have each about 23.5% chance of having a flush draw. That means that only 42% of the time are we facing a flush draw from V2 or V3 (this is roughly (1-(1-.235)^2)). Many of these hands will not call the action preflop (e.g. V2 is unlikely to call preflop with 72). So in effect, much less then 42% of the time are we up against at least one FD. (Of course, there is a small chance that V1 could have a FD too, but since he 3b pre, it is even more unlikely that he has a FD).

Same exercise can be applied to SD for V2 and V3. Obviously, there are many more SD combinations possible for V2 and/or V3 then FD combos (e.g. GS, 1P+GS, ...).

So at the time when we have to take a decision, we have all three opponents ranges completely crushed, the majority of those ranges will snap-fold to a raise, and we have a hand too strong to fold. IOW, when we raise OTF, yes we give the small number of draws a worse price, but we're also eliminating the majority of weaker hands that may still put $$$ in drawing essentially dead -- IMO, this means raising would be a mistake.

We also prevent either V2 or V3 from spazzing out and trying to steal the pot.

Now, you ask what hands could improve OTT that would put more $$$ in the pot? Of course, there are many hands that improve OTT which would have folded OTF.

We have to consider that once V2 and/or V3 call OTF, the new pot becomes $175-200 and they will have committed a good portion of their stack (≈25%) to it -- they're approaching commitment, even without a strong hand. Especially if V1 and Hero have not showed much strength.

IMO, none of this is FPS. Its playing correctly against your Vs' range.

Cuz we don't want to give them a chance to hit a 4 outer on OTT? 4/47 = 8.5% of the outcomes.

What about the other 91.5% of the time?!

Will respond later. What is your plan on turn cards?

Both good and bad

I've already stated my plan...

So whether we lead, call, raise or other will depend on the actual action OTT.

Goal is to get all villains to put as much $$$ in the pot as possible w/r/t their range.

But never folding.

I like your thinking Lapi, but I'm still not convinced. I do agree that we should never fold.

I ran Pokercruncher on my phone. Shows:

H [88]: 61.0%
V2, range for continuing to flop bet of 25 [AQdd, AJdd, ATs, A9s, A8dd-A2dd, KQdd, KJs, KTs, QJs, JJ-66, JTs-87s, 76dd, 65s]: 19.5%
V3 [same as V2]: 19.5%

This has them calling all the gutshots that get there (QJs, etc.), which they may not do. If they fold the QJ(not dd), then their equity is even better. I realize V2 and V3 will have slightly different ranges, but I thought this was a reasonable approximation. They might have AKdd in their ranges too, but not a huge difference.

Haven't added V1 yet, which will reduce our equity somewhat. Why not get them to fold their equity, or put it in bad? My main point, they have a lot of 9's and flush draws in their ranges, and that gives them enough equity that we should bet for protection/value. Actually lots of flush draws too. Finally, we are playing against all of them, not just one of them. So flush draws and straight draws of three people adds up. Raise it. I think I just convinced myself.

Anyway, what am I doing wrong? Too many suited aces in their ranges?

Has nothing to do with playing scared. It has to do with forcing them to make mistake, with majority of their range. Getting money in pot, before board kills action from hands we are ahead of.

At least 19 turn cards can scare them on turn, killing our action when we are ahead.

I am assuming your trying to target A-10,k10,q10,A-8,A-7, AQ, Few other 1 pair hands. Few over card hands like KQ, ...

Any over card hand that contains a Jack is getting correct odds to call.

Alot of there 1 pair hands also have draws, which will call a raise from us.

I am all for slowplaying. But not when the majority of their continuing range isn't folding to a raise. When we are offering huge IO.

Also your plan to shove turn losses value vs good players (although V2 does not qualify).

If they have a flush draw. They can easily fold turn. They get great odds on flop to draw. We get no value on turn.

Still like to know what IOW stands for?

I usually get the acronyms I'm unfamiliar with, but I couldn't get this one right away either.

It took me a mouse click and five keystrokes to find out what it means.

I'm screwed then.

Semi-Grunching, I don't mind the call pre- but if the V is squeeze happy it's not a bad spot to 4-bet especially if you have a clean nitty image from EP. I would go to 100 pre-
As played, I raise the flop to 125 and jam turn, as played GII

KookieMonster ran numbers earlier itt, didn't see that our stacks are so short just shove Flop IMO barely more than a PSB and let's be honest this is LLSNL ppl aren't folding a FD or any 9 here and if you would take this line with overs + FD or a combo draw you may get Vs to call with overpairs 2 prs etc.

As KMs numbers showed you could flat and call any non-9 turn and it be okay IMO but LLSNL players love to GII on the come so make their day and balance with monster draws and Jx9x

IN OTHER WORDS