Checking back.

f this guy, bet smallish/call

?? So check flop

+1 to mikko and SABR so far. This would be a massive leak.

On the 3 turn I'm a nit so I check and call any river. Bet/call is either genius or spew.

Personally, I wouldve limped preflop and then bet this flop, but if I did raise preflop I think I still have to bet the flop. You have the best hand most of the time and you have to protect against over cards that will beat you.

If we knew he was going to check raise, we could check the flop but that's not realistic. If you kept track, my guess is that you would get check raised maybe 10% of the time on this flop.

+1
as played now that we're here lets get to the river

That turn check is a glorious gift from Jesus. Check it with thanks, call a bet on most rivers and show this one down.

Sent from my LG-M150 using Tapatalk

So your PF raising range is even more heavily weighted to Broadways. And your Cbet is even more weighted towards air. You likely have 1 combo of any 7 in your entire range (77).

You are getting raised at higher percentage than 10%. Even in my OMC, Rock, passive fish filled game I play.

You are playing 2/5 mostly. I guarantee even average players see you are over c betting dry boards, and are opening up their semi-bluff range vs you. Granted, there are not many semi-bluffs in this runout. Defending with just JJ+ isn't sufficient.

Calling flop, and folding turn is completely reasonable. As you can see. They are not betting turn 100% of time.
We likely lose this hand (as winners rarely make threads). But it doesn't change fact, your line is super exploitable.

true, true, and true

i think any ace is a call on the flop we really should be discussing if we are flatting our decent king highs, 88 is super high up in our range imo

is your villain psychologist alex?

Untrue. I can have T7s,97s,87s,76s,75s. I raise those hands in spots like this all the time. I probably wouldnt do it with this guy limping in, but he doesnt know that.

I know that 100% betting flops like this is exploitable. There are just very few people who try it against me. I rarely ever get raised. There just arent very many good aggro players trying to exploit anyone.

I agree that against this guy you have to defend much more often.

Don't think I'm allowed to say, so I neither confirm nor deny

So I did consider a bet but ultimately just wasnt in the mood to stack off with pocket 88s which I figured I would have to do reasonably often if I bet the turn, so I just check it back.

River (410) 7723T

MP 225. I feel like this sizing could be anything but leans towards value. This guy is capable of a thin value bet with some random T here or he could have 72 or 22 or nothing whatsoever. I don't love the T because I think it hits his limp range a little stronger than an A or K and he may play a hand like T9 exactly like this. I say to villain "I know you like that 72" to which he laughs. Seems genuine. What do we make of the laugh?

Fold/call/raise?

We checked turn with plan to showdown. Nothing has changed besides we lose a little more often.

Call,

Well played sir.

call river
if I had a better read on V I may raise to blow him off a 10 if I thought he could fold
other wise I call only

I'm not quite a DNeg payoff wizard, but I can get behind calling the river getting 3:1.

As played, you absolutely have to call.

sigh, prolly getting to showdown cheaper by betting the turn yourself, also raising to 320 on the flop is just a little less, now we have to pay villains price

well played hand so far, i'm fine with the check on the turn, river is on you bro, it's safe to fold now, calling is fine too

guy seems like a pretty crafty player, his sizing is solid, you are probably good about a third of the time and he's giving you indifferent odds so you have to use all the information you have and try and guess right

The way you wrote this makes me believe his limp-calling range pre includes premium pairs and this is one of his go to value lines against his better, tighter, trying to win opponents.


This may not come out right, but basically I almost want to puke in my mouth a bit when I recommend folding river. Especially because I want to say it lol 'feels' right. Really though, by feel, I just mean that everything you described above tells me that we should not rely on the usual reasoning here - In other words, if he has more hands>88 pre then we are no longer doing well bluff-catching his big river bet because 'he might have some random airball spazz' and/or 'he's just repping too thin' and/or 'we fooled him checking turn'. I've just seen this line too often from 'smart' whales as value with OPs that are too easily removed preflop (from his perceived range) and he knows it. I suppose there are some gameflow reasons to call all the way down to 88, but less so if he's winning/isn't out to get you tonight/etc.

...and I'm betting flop always against these two and checking turn is standard with everything less than trips.

...and generally speaking, you don't see a guy like this checking his super-fat value hands ott after raising flop. Once the cat is out the bag, it's hammer time, not double-check raise time. Moreso, when he checks turn, I think he can then bet JJ/QQ here for any amount he wants otr and feel real good about it.

...and I have no problem w 30 pre and 60 otf against these two since you are dealing with inelastic, too wide calling ranges. Stomp away this deep.

Amana hitting the slopes tonight?

I think flop and turn are pretty standard. Betting turn is reasonable but I would check.

River:

Yuck. Really close spot. I probably call. We checked turn, he’s probably overbluffing in general, we are supposed to call here with most of our pairs against a balanced opponent, let’s toss in the call.

We do have the best 88 combo to call with. We want to have the 8s to not block backdoor draws like 89hh, 89dd, 68hh, 68dd. We want to also have the club instead of a heart or a diamond to block 78cc.

Obviously that’s crazy nit picky but when it’s this close against an opponent who we don’t have a good read on that’s just as good a reason as any to call.

How many overpairs do you think he has given the preflop, maybe 6 combos?

If only we had A2 here for that all important 72o blocker

Please don’t tell me you called and lost to 72.

I'm the villain in this hand.

Preflop: I was playing nice and limped. You should have limped along as well. You're lucky I didn't limp raise. If there were more callers pre and if my cards weren't so pretty I would have limp-raised you right off those snowmen.

Flop: This is a check on the flop unless you want to play your 8s for stacks. I told you before we were gonna play a big one and I don't just say that sort of thing without meaning it. I was in a gamboolin mood at the moment and I know you cbet practically every time and even if you don't cbet, spazzy annie is gonna bet all her 1 pair hands so this is a great spot for me to get free moneys and if it checks through then I'm potting all low turns.

Turn: Good check. I just made a decision at the last second that I was gonna check/raise all in on the turn.

River: You can't fold here in a million years. My range is so wide on this river that you'd be crazy to fold given the pot odds. I didn't even think about my decision to bet, I just bet and the sizing doesn't matter because I'm just as likely to value-bet bluff as I am to over bet bluff. Easy call.

BTW, my laugh actually wasn't genuine but that had nothing to do with the hand. The money doesn't matter to me so I could care less if you called or folded. I just like to keep the fish happy and will laugh at just about any jokes they make no matter how lame they are.

this post made me laugh