Don't feel the need to get out if hand here.

$100-125/puke-call

$125 and probably puke/call if shoved on. Slowing down in this situation just invites bluff and semi-bluffs so no reason to slow down.

This, not a fan of bet/fold when we have redraw equity like crazy

That's not a bad outcome if we think V will bet this 100% of the time we check. That's not very likely in this described game, though.

We bet to charge draws and random worse hands, but against some V that's a smaller range than their betting range.

I still like to bet at this game given the described low level of aggression.

Bets are too large.

Pre-flop, most of your equity is going to come from set mining. $30 is too much. Better to raise to $20 or $25 and let more players call to increase chance of getting good action when the set comes. Yes, you are prob giving up any chance of a C-bet working, but with your image being so bad, C-betting ain't such a good idea anyway. So just set up the set-mining opportunity and keep it simple. Also OK to limp/call pre- IMO.

Flop: the question I have not seen answered is this: will either villain semi-bluff raise with a strong FD or combo draw here, such as Ad8x or Ad6x? If yes, I tend to bet more on the flop and your $75 is OK. If no, which I suspect to be more likely given villain info, then just bet enough to give the draws bad odds. $50 is enough.

What is happening here is SPR is getting too low b/c bets are too large.

Raise to $20 pre- and get one extra caller = 4x20 = 80 (rather than 90). Then $45 on flop and 1 caller = 80+45+45 = 170. Your remaining 835 gives you SPR of 4.9:1. As played, SPR after flop betting is 3.3:1.

Regarding the ranges, I would expect all flopped flushes weaker than A-high or K-high (and often the K-high's) to raise on the flop. Weak flopped flushes tend to play very fast, fearing another diamond falling on turn or river. His flat on the flop narrows the range.

As played, $130 on the turn. Enough to charge the draws, and OK if they call. Prob fold if he shoves, but hating it.

His range should also include some over pairs like 99, TT, JJ that would flat pre-. Also any Adx hands. As stated in another reply, most flopped NON-NUT flushes will raise the flop.

+1 to sizing flop a little smaller

Or a redraw to get ourselves stacked if villain fills up from his higher 2 pair or higher set. Not sure why we're so confident in our semi weak and semi obvious redraw.

Fast call to me means drawing. $175 -195, I keep it under $200 to get a call.

My read.

As submerged suggests I read villain as very draw heavy prob AdXx. Obv it's possible he could have flopped a flush but he never even thought about raising or folding otf so I think I'm ahead a substantial amount of the time here.

Hero bets $200.

Villain seems noticeably uncomfortable (legit or Hollywood could both be possible). He takes a minute and finally calls.

River:

($640)

(8d6d2d Qc) Ts

Hero?

If I follow right you have about $600 behind in a pot that is $640.

Two ways to go here:
1. If you are confident of the read he is on a draw, check and call almost any amount
2. If you go with the Mubsy read where you aren't sure if you are good or not (ie he is calling with an overset/2 pair), I bet like $150.

From most of what you said, I check.

+1

SUBMERGED: what are you doing here if you take option 2, bet 150, and he ships it?

With read that he is Mubsy, I can't see how he doesn't have the nut flush here and wasn't just making sure board didn't pair before putting $$ in. I try for a live read and then fold.

If I thought the player was good, then this changes and the $150 would be to induce the raise and I'd snap. That's not the case with Cam's reads.

I consider chk to bluff catch the busted flush draw but I haven't seen villain make any bluffs thus far.

If we bet small for value what hands are we expecting to call? We need to be good more than half the time when called.

Sometimes when the pots get big they will call with anything if the bet is small enough in relation to pot size. That is why my river bet is smaller than turn bet (if I bet, which I would still bluff catch), but you are mostly targeting AdQx and I guess AdTx and Ad8x.

Since I hadn't seen him bluff prior I elected to do exactly option 2 going for thin value. Keeping in mind that this v previously was observed flatting QQ and prob has JJ And sometimes KK in his range as well. As well as AdQx

Hero bets $150

villain sort of hems and haws then ships All In.

Hero?

how much more is it to call??

I don't think you can ever be good but if it's only like $50-$100 it's worth seeing what he called pre flop with

Probably fold now.

By the way, I think the turn sizing was really bad. If I'm going to bet the turn hoping to get called by worse here (and I am), it has to be a bet that worse will be willing to call. In my experience at LLSNL, when the flop comes out all one suit, most people play REALLY weak-tight. So the problem on the flop and turn is, even though there's not really a reason to think you don't have the best hand, getting worse to call you is actually pretty tough.

That's why I hate betting $200 on the turn. I want to bet, to be sure, but when you bet $200 you are basically letting your opponent fold everything that you beat AND you're making it clear that you're pricing him out of calling with the A. I would have bet less, as others said earlier in the thread.

I think it's very hard to imagine that the small river bet induced a raise from something we beat. Probably we're up against a slowplayed flopped flush.

Call is about 450 pot is now almost 1500.

I´m sure your plan was to bet/fold. So do it. Go with your read. I don´t think 3:1 is enough for a crying call against a guy like this.

I agree completely!

Hems and haws and then ship's, what more do you need?!?!

fold

This.