OTF and turn I was putting him on air. Even on the river, I never thought he had a hand. I believed there was a leveling war going on (and there was).

I also agree that checking behind is weak. A lot of the Bart Hanson/Ed Miller/Dusty Schmidt I read talks about the bet/fold in lieu of the check/call. In this case, however, I felt villain was easily creative enough to turn all of his value/air hands into bluffs by c/r the river, so my thinking was to make a small bet on the river, one so he may be tempted to c/r super light, but one that also wasn't so big that it would make his c/r a jam. I have read abou this play and I'd like to get some feedback.

Folds to Hero on the button who opens to $15 with the 77
Villain calls from BB.

Flop 743 [pot = $30]

Villain bets $20. Hero calls quickly.

Turn 7432 [pot = $70]

Villain checks. Hero bets $50. Villain calls quickly.

River 7432K [pot = $170] Stacks = ~$800 (puke)

Villain checks. Hero bets $60. [pot = $230] Stacks = ~$800

Villain thinks for > 2 minutes (remember he was in tank for > 5 minutes on the prior hand). Entire time he's in the tank his body language and demeanor are leaning toward a fold or a crying call. Then, out of nowhere,

Villain raises to $220 [pot = $450] Stacks behind = ~$580

$160 to Hero to win $450.

Hero ?

Flop is a raise imo always. Your hand is much stronger than your perceived range and you guys are playing deepish so you need to start building a pot. I don't think he is going to donk/fold the flop given the board texture. He definitely has something.
Villain's range is over pairs, sets, and flush draw w/overs, and less likely a made straight
As you can see almost his entire range is at least calling a raise here and not folding

I can't give him credit for KK. He could easily have a flush, straight, or smaller set here, but You are being offered ~3:1 on the set. I can't find a fold here based on the way the action went. Raising is dangerous because we are including flushes in his range, and there is a small chance of a straight.

I also agree with the previous suggestions of raising the flop and 2/3 - 3/4th pot on the turn.

Summary: Call, expect to be good somewhere around 50%.

Turn action from villain eliminates sets from his range. He still can have some some overpairs in his range, but I think he has alot flushes with the 7

River is a clear bet/fold....river ch/raise is the nuts about 99% of the time

The body language of weakness you were seeing is just your subconscious subliminally swaying you towards calling, because that's what you want to do

relative hand strength FTW

in general it's a bet/fold, but i think given the weakness of your bet and the manner in which he raised, it's a call, but it's close.

it's gonna be hard for villain to have the 7h if we have it also.

oh I missed that..yeah I can see how this is a PAHWM now...lol

This is a tl/dr, but this is how I would break it down:

1) Villain's ch/raise on the river is either a nutted hand or it isn't

2) if it isn't a nutted hand, then it's either be a pure air ball bluff or a hand with good to weakish value that he is turning into a bluff.

3) For him to have a complete air ball, his range would be composed of missed draws. hands like non heart 5-8 or 6-8 are the only obvious missed draws..But then, you have to consider the weight of these hands in villain's range?Considering villain's profile as a strong player, as well as his action of donking the flop and check/calling turn, the only 5-8 or 6-8 type hands I see him continuing with are the suited ones. Conclusion: very low chance of a complete bluff

4) So let's consider villain merging/vbluffing his range here because he may have perceived weakness from hero, given hero's anemic bet sizing on the river...the hands in this range are exclusively composed of sets, twopairs overpairs and straights.. All of these hands are raising flop or turn or leading turn..Again it isn't consistent with villain's actions....furthermore, these hands would bet/f river for value or be turned into a bluff by leading river

5) it's $160 to win $450. We want to call because we think to be good here >25% of the time

So, the only plausible explanation for hero to call here is villain may have chosen to check/eval river based on hero's bet sizing...But usually when we analyze HH, we say check/call a small bet or ch/fold to a bigger bet. So, villain can easily have chosen to call with his value range, which lessens the chances of him turning his hand into a bluff. Villain can also consider hero's action as an inducing bet and would choose not to fall into the trap by bluff raising.

Given my long explanation, my conclusion is that we are not good >25% of the time to call here

cliffs: fold

I don't think flatting is bad because realistically, people who say "we can't bet big anymore when bad cards come" ignore the fact that we're not really getting called by many worse value hands to begin with aside from draws. We're unlikely to win a big pot either way.

That said it's tough to rep too much air by flatting so I still go with a raise, but the goal isn't really to get stacks in, just charge draws.

Also I'm never betting that small on the river; your villain literally only beats a bluff even with very strong hands there, and you can't rep a bluff very well by betting small.

Folds to Hero on the button who opens to $15 with the 77
Villain calls from BB.

Flop 743 [pot = $30]

Villain bets $20. Hero calls quickly.

Turn 7432 [pot = $70]

Villain checks. Hero bets $50. Villain calls quickly.

River 7432K [pot = $170] Stacks = ~$800 (puke)

Villain checks. Hero bets $60. [pot = $230] Stacks = ~$800

Villain thinks for > 2 minutes (remember he was in tank for > 5 minutes on the prior hand). Entire time he's in the tank his body language and demeanor are leaning toward a fold or a crying call. Then, out of nowhere,

Villain raises to $220 [pot = $450] Stacks behind = ~$580

$160 to Hero to win $450.

Hero calls. Villain reveals the J2.