Kookie, Vern thinks it's a tarp. Would villain try to induce here in your opinion?

Vern I may be jaded by read in OP.

I'm not saying I definitely think it's a trap. But I am saying that before we get all gung-ho about check/raising, we should figure out the range we are targeting to get a fold out of and then figure out if that's even in his betting range.

By the way if we were in position I'd be raising this all day long because it would look like a blocking bet to me. But with Villain in position he has no need to make a blocking bet when he can just check it back. That's what I think is weird.

From the op.... Perhaps I am too focused on the bolded


So to Vern's point re: opening the action rather than checking behind... V does "monkey bet" which I interpret as button clicking or betting without serious thought.

His value bets were observed to be 1/2 pot.

If his opening range was TT+ AK he's got 12 TPTK, 6 Sets, 12 underpairs QQ,JJ,KK.

If 88+ then 3 more sets and 6 more underpairs.

As I said I may be misunderstanding the whole monkey bet thing but I interpreted the read to be that he would make silly bets with those underpairs sometimes but would likely valuebet 1/2 pot. Thus I was putting a lot of underpairs and some scared AK but lass sets in his range.... Other than occasional slow played monsters.

Kookie,

Can I presume by capping the range in our read of smaller opening raise size at AJ possibly AQ that AK is a "premium" and is Fully in villain' range here based on PF sizing tell?

I don't think he is that sophisticated. Maybe he binked OTT and is slowplaying??? Still, seems far fetched with the two flush and straightening cards on board, decent amount of $$$ behind.



I have specific notes on him raising much smaller with KQ,AJ in similar spots pf and comparable sizing with KK, big opens w. JJ. No notes on AK.

But "POW" tho? For the third ****ing time????

Calling is fine, raising big and hoping to take it down but getting the odds to call a shove is ok (we obv want him to fold though) only bad option is raising small and folding to a shove as you give up your equity.

I used to be confused by "POW," thinking it meant "prisoner of war," and wondering what kind of sketchy place you must be playing in to be around them. It actually means "pay off wizard," which I guess is similar to a calling station.

Not directed at any one person:
Raising specifically with the idea to price ourselves in against a shove is really terrible poker. I don't see how this should be a factor at all in our raise sizing. We artificially increase our EV when we get shoved on, but we had to put more money in bad to get there.

So you want to raise to like 400? I mean when he shoves we will be like 30% vs his range of sets+ AK.


Edit Pow ldo....

Grunch-
Pre- call/ maybe like 5% squeeze with this hand but call is better deeper and multi-way IMO
flop caw (I can see the merits of raising but really only against weak regs who will fold to sustained pressure...against a fish who overplays this would be bad so calling is the only option IMO)
Turn: donking doesn't rep many made hands here so I think checking is fine, the small bet really is polarizing his range to middling As and AA,TT. I would like raising (potting it on the turn) banging it off on all rivers if he will fold a weak Ax to pressure (so poor hand reading regs)(don't try against good regs as you are value repping pretty slim with a c/rai on this turn) but reads don't seem to support this idea so calling again isn't that bad, IMO.

I have to agree with most people here
Call the flop,decent hand and gdtting good odds.
Flop
I can go either way here, i can see the merits of folding but i dont mind peeling here. We have some good back door draws and could bink the K for the straight.
The turn is where the real big decision is.
I dont mind calling but i just cant see you getting good value even if you hit the river as you will have to bet big on river and he might fold if he has a weak holding.
Check raising looks a lot better option but you are committing yoursellf to shoving just about any river. I like this play as you might just end it right here and get him to fold.

What is MAWG? Also, if you ain't calling with QJs multiway to a 6x and super deep then you playing nitty as ****. Might as well print t-shirt that says, "I'm tighter than 86 yr old OMC" Call and play some pokerz post-flop. U not stacking off with pair of Q's, but you certainly shouldn't be folding pre. Only tight dolts here with no roll telling u to fold pre.

And I'm having a hard time believing this villain would shove 200bbs over a check raise with AK

Remember OP hasn't played a hand in 90 minutes or something

It looks I was a party of one in favour of the turn lead. Can somebody please explain how/why donking the turn is bad? It seems to be the least popular choice.

Anyway, now that we've checked and villain's made that sad bet, raise it up to $235-$285. I want to note that there is a close to 0% chance that this an inducing bet. That move does not make sense to be in this V's arsenal.

Middle-Aged White Guy.

The more I think about this, I think we should flat turn and lead all helpful rivers big. We're getting direct odds to call vs his entire range and I just hate having to fold out all my equity if he shoves

Just read HH. I'm c/r turn then betting big all rivers. Putting max pressure on other guy. Really sick if you backdoor 2s otr and I'd probably 2-3x pot otr just in case he thinks you full of mudd.

Doesn't that become a simple equation:

What is greater, our FE % or his shove %?

Popular sentiment seems to be that the x/c is being a pussy, but I'm inclined towards the x/c after realizing that there are a good number of rivers we can lead out and rep heavy (or at least, moderate). Any broadway card and any board pair (V doesn't have an ace, btw).

Yup that and the relative pot size won and lost with each scenario. Comes back to a ranging issue and his is where I get confused by he villain description, what his bet sizing means etc.

My answer is lazy. Will try to put some numbers on this later when I get home

I'm in a similar spot. Now that I realize he is a POW LOL which I didn't get in initial read.

This much for sure:

Calling is +EV

Raising an amount to commit to calling off which was suggested in 2 spots seems bad to me. It's nearly equivalent to shoving in that you are getting folds or getting it in 30/70.

I agree That whether the FE of a raise is more EV than flatting needs to be worked out with some additional combo work and maths.

Depends on other factors like how often you will make a cinch on the river, how often pairing will be good, and how often you can bluff successfully on the river when you miss. This is an excellent hand for discussion. Great posts too.

Actually I wrote a little program but I probably need to revise it to model the situation better. Came up with about 18% FE with a $210 CR but even that FE may be too high.

good price to call, we know he'll pay us off, so i'm leaning towards call here.

trying to get MAWG rec fish to fold top pair/second pair and inflating the pot before we hit our hand is not my favorite line

So, I'm gonna bring this up once and then leave it:

How much, when we are computing things like our equity, implied odds, etc., do you think we should factor in AK into Villain's range?

That hand actually makes perfect sense for Villain to have. It explains everything: the large raise preflop, the half-pot value bet on the flop, and also the suck bet on the turn--he's no longer betting to protect his hand from draws when he has the nut draw.

It may be the case that Villain has other hands in his range such as KK-JJ that make check/raising worthwhile. But I think that if we check/raise and don't get a fold, we have to be concerned that a large part of his continuing range is AK. And out of position, we will not know what to do if our turn raise gets called, unless we hit an offsuit K or 9.

In game I think I'm calling as There's no way it can be bad. The read suggested that "same bet" is part of this guys value betting repertoire, and I'm not sure a raise will get him off AK. If I was more sure about that, I'd be in the raising camp, but I don't think we're targeting a big enough part of his b/f range to make a c/r obviously more profitable than a call. His small bet is a mistake with just about any hand, so let's exploit it and see a cheap river with great odds.