Agree if he checks back turn it's a big problem but I only see him doing this with QQ, JJ and we can just pot it on the river to get him off those hands.

From the reading the OP I would say he doesn't get away from AK but maybe OP can help us with that.

I know he has a redraw but I'm not really concerned because lets say the turn is a K and the river is a T I just c/f. He is never shipping AK there.

I agree it's prob not lol straightforward but if you are folding this flop you should just fold pre flop

I don't mind peeling one off. Don't think it's that standard but I don't hate it. So we plan to check raise turns that give us more equity? Do we expect to have fold equity the times villan does same bet? Or are we just flatting to hit our hand with a plan to donk river huge? Doesn't seem all that great if we never expect to bluff villan off AK-AJ or KK-JJ.

Read is:

We have some options vs some of his range here IMO.

So the plan is...

• call flop
• x/shove turn if we hit
• x/f turn if we miss
• if we miss and turn is checked, pot river as a bluff
• if we miss turn, it's checked back and we bink K OTR. Pot? Overbet? x/shove?

Do I have that right? Interesting. Can we put some probabilities on these events?

Likelihood V checks behind if we hit?
Likelihood V checks behind if we miss?
Likelihood V folds to a pot on the river after checking back turn?

If we spike a Q or a J OTT, what's the plan?
If we spike a Q or a J OTR (after turn is checked behind) what's our plan? Still bluff? x/c? x/f?

I'm asking because I think the line may indeed make this a call.

I would add to your list some turn c/r on weak bets on some turns.

Don't think we can c/shove turn. Raising enough to set up river shove.

X/f turn is fine on blank unless he bets super small like commando said or if turn is spade, 9 or 8 can call again depending on villains sizing on the turn.

If we miss and river is a K as you said then most likely he has QQ or JJ so bet small 1/3 pot to get value from those hands. Hoping he has KK though as he raises and then we ship. If turn is a J and it checks though on turn then turning my hand into a bluff on the river to get him off KK and QQ.

But most of what you said is correct

Preflop is a raise, imo.

AP, I don't mind a call.

I think this should be a call. We are deep enough to call $60 getting 3:1 immediate with another $1k behind. It seems from the reads like this Villain will give us very good odds on the turn if we catch a spade, 9, or 8 (everyone forgot an 8 makes us a double gutter?) for a backdoor draw as well.

Huge IO if we bink a K and check, based on "monkey betting."

I'd call the flop and bet $120-$150 on Q/J/9/8 turn cards.

So...Hero calls (obviously)

*Putting V on a range of TT+, AK, 50-75% of AQ combos.

(~$240) Turn: 8

Hero checks, V bets $60, Hero thinks for 15 seconds and?

*Hardball suggesting donking. Did I err?

Obviously biased here, but yes you did.

Look at V's turn bet... Weak as ****. He could be doing this with JT easily.

c/r to 215. Donking here is going to look weird, enough so that he might call at least one street with KK. I think the c/r is more cost effective than donking turn+river, and is easier to get paid off if it hits.

also, A+ PAHWM formatting

*Grunch*
First time seeing this thread. Been away from 2+2 playing poker. I 1st want to note that, based upon my perception of kookie, I was shocked to read that he sat down with 1k & went 90 minutes without playing a hand.

I recently sat in on a 2/5 game for 6.3 hours & was teased for not playing many hands. I would have played more if I had been dealt QJs in the BB vs. this kind of lineup.

Anyways, I see PF as being an obvious call, because the raise came from a player who sizes his raises based upon the strength of his hand & we don't want to chase off the calling stations yet to call. I see great potential for great IO if we hit.

The bottom of my range to call in this situation [vs this lineup] is 54s & 64s.


I don't understand this.

Now I understand!

Whenever I donk, I think I get raised more often than not. Maybe my sizing is wrong. Maybe they can "tell" I bet my increase in equity. Idk.

I definitely call the $60 with 15 outs, but what about c/r? Is his small bet because he is praying for a call here? If not, why not c/r?

I think donking ott could probably give you more options otr if you want to bluff when you miss. Would be a shame, though, if V holds AX & a spade came otr.

I'm clueless..............

Just kidding ... bump this bitch up to $225

Interesting hand, wouldn't need to much FE too make this play but it would depend on how often hero gets re-raised and can't call because pot isn't laying hero enough.

Think the xr is better than a flat. Flat gives us a gross feeling on the river when we miss and have to xf. Xr to like 250 gives us about a psb left on the river to empty the clip. We can have A8, 44, TT that play this way. This is the perfect bluff hand to have in our range to balance.

Now if he jams over our xr, we're getting 2 to 1 and we probably have 14 outs. So mathematically it's a fold since we're not getting the right price. If he jams. So we could make it 300 to go and artificially give us the right price to call a jam.

We really have to be careful if he calls though otoh. What is he calling with? Ax? So it's just a one street bluff since we already deemed this guy as sticky with top pair. But we get that fold equity along with our outs equity.

Based on his "same bet" sizing I am going to assume he is more likely weighted to AK than AA. So he should only be jamming on us with 3/15 combos in his range, or 20%.

I haven't run any math or equity calculations but raising seems better than calling. It's just an intuition/feel thing for me.

Calling certainly can't be a mistake since we are getting better than direct odds, but I have a feeling raising is greater +EV.

Based on your description this is a value bet to this guy.

Based on your description it seems he can lay down marginal hands. Who knows if he's holding anything marginal. V made is $30 pre which, again, based on initial description, means a fairly big hand.

So I think we are behind here - AA and Ax being most likely. And I haven't read enough to tell me this guy is folding this turn.

It's $60 to win $300 and we are totally live unless he is AsXs.

It may seem weak but I'm calling this turn all day and I won't feel bad about check/folding the river if we brick it.

As long as we have a plan I like a call. Some said an easy call but gave no reasoning as to why. Those who said fold gave plenty of reasons. So the same bet should indicate he has a weakish hand. KK-JJ and some weak Ax. If we have fold equity I like a check raise to 300. I pan to shove all rivers that we bink and some of the time shove when we wiff.

Kookie that's a handsome turn my man

At this point that 60 looks so weak I think we have to go for the c/r here with very decent equity when called and size it to get max fold equity and set up a turn shove when we hit. I'm thinking $275 ish.

If we are committed to emptying the clip on bricked rivers we may want to go a tad smaller to keep the river a full psb. I don't know that I'm committed to that yet.

Raise 245-275.

$60 on what looks like a brick turn is super weak and your hand actually improved. So not folding now, should hero call, raise or shove?

Shove is too much, it would be more then twice the pot. Risking too much for the situations when villain shows up with a nut spade draw or set. Call is too passive. Looks exactly like hero is drawing to something and hero won't get paid on the river or bet able to bluff villain off a better hand. Call might be right option if villain's same bet isn't weak. This is a minority of villains but some will make these small bets with moderate-strong hands that want to get to river cheaply but won't give up if raised.

Mostly raise to what ever you think gets you the most FE vs this villain. $250-$300 looks right. No reason to go bigger vs a villain who looks at absolute dollars rather then pot size and it sets up a reasonable river shove.

Raise to $300.

He obviously has KK-JJ with such a weak bet unless he has AA and is scared you will fold.

Respectfully, can someone point to something in the description that makes us believe we have any fold equity in this hand?

OP said after the flop his range includes JJ-KK. AQ should fold some of the time too.

I am really confused as to why we think the described Villain would re-open the betting with KK-JJ instead of just checking back (I mean, yes, I agree that if he has those in his betting range, we could raise him off them...but why do we think he bets those?). Our hand should look like Ax to him. Also this looks like a suck bet. It is not sized big enough relative to the pot to look like he wants to end the hand now. I have a feeling we are not going to induce a fold with a raise here. It is tempting to raise this bet because it looks so weak, but I think I would just call. He is giving us incredible direct odds, after all. Calling (instead of raising) can't be a big mistake here.