Started to think the above means we should actually raise here, but given reads that his sizing pre and on flop is nuttish, think calling is best for us to stack him if we hit.

OP, what does he do with KK and QQ on this flop?

+1

I don't like check/raising with just a gutterball here unless we are prepared to barrel brick turns. OOP and 200 BB's deep, lets just use V's poor bet sizing to our advantage. I know Vernon says "never draw to a draw" but this seems like as good a spot as we'll get for that scenario.

He monkey bets.

Pay Off Wizard

Kookie, what is "POW" in villain read of op?

Flop: we have gutter to the stonies, bdfd and a 9 ball will get us in all sorts of trouble... Of course being handsome you'll prob turn the 9s.

We have our good relative position which allows us to be sticky since we aren't worried about action behind. He doesn't seem a great candidate to float since we likely have to leverage our entire stack to pry him of his likely underpairs. For same reason c/r bluff not considered either.

He's bet 1/2 pot so we are getting 3:1 ish and another 15:1 or so on his stack. so total 18:1... I'd say peeling here is ok since he has the sets in his range too.

Sign me up for $60.

Bonus question, meh I'm a sucker for this type of villain so something like 67s+ maybe S1Gs to T8+ although that's likely a leak.

I don't know what this means?

I'm guessing he bets without reasoning behind it.

Yes, but same sizing?

Calling here seems bad. Our 4 outs to the nuts are less likely since K's are heavy in our opponents preflop raising and calling ranges. Our 4 outs are more likely 3 or 2 outs. We are OOP, so if we don't bink, we should expect V to fire most turns and take it down.

It`s likely.

Let's just consider the GSSD, neglecting our backdoor draws and the chance he has a redraw to beat us. If we always double up when we hit, we stand to win $1150 or lose $60 for an EV of $43. That implies V calls a greater than PSB on either the river or the turn (or both). Perhaps we bet $300 into $240 on the turn and shove $850 into $780 on the river. I'm not sure that river bet is getting called all the time.

I think V is unlikely to have an overpair on the A high board. It's great that he stacks off with AK -- except that the K is our out. So if he's going to stack off, we're less likely to make the hand. Or, if we have all our outs, he's less likely to stack off.

I think the backdoor draws we have roughly balance the times V has a set and therefore a redraw to crack us if we hit.

Before analysis, I thought I would fold this. After analysis, I'm sure of it.

Given stack sizes and the read on V that he has a hard time laying down TP hands, I call here.

Check raising seems bad against described V because there isnt much fold equity. You need to be ready to barrel if you check raise here and miss, and I dont like it because theres a lot of As in his range and you say he doesnt like to fold them. Getting re-raised and having to fold would also be sad.

Call, we have 4 outs to the nuts and backdoor outs. Check/raising seems spewey against this sticky Villain. It sounds like we can get paid as well if we hit.

Yeah. I think it's just a fold man. If you were a few hundred deeper, I'd call. Here, we're like what, 12:1 to turn the straight? And the backdoor flush matters, but again, not deep enough imo. In position, it'd perhaps be a call; oop I think it's a close fold. Folding certainly isn't fun when we flop such potential. But I think it's correct.

Also, yes, V's AK blocks 25% of your nut outs. When V has AA/TT, he re-draws to straights / some runner spades are bad. I'm not saying those are a huge % of his range, but overall, you have slightly less than the full backdoor equity.

Close enough, but looking at 3:1 direct with around 18 bets left in stacks (so 21:1 total), I'm just not seeing it. Totally just going off of intuition, but I think I'd want at least 4 more bets left in stacks (25:1 total). And that said, sure you can call. It's definitely not "bad." I just think it's going to be slightly -EV rather than +EV. Doubt that it's a decision that matters that much. I peel here sometimes for sure, but I probably shouldn't.

I think c/r is a consideration, but you do block JJ and QQ. So we'd be targeting a pretty limited set of JJ-KK combos. AK is 12 combos, JJ-KK is 12 as well. TT, AA are 6. Per your read, I do assume the 30 sizing pre-flop is a strongish value hand.

I did a big math problem, but realized something was wrong with it. But if something was wrong with the number that I got (it was too low), then it definitely means that we should be calling. We have 18 cards (not counting the Ts, since either the Ts is bad or villain has AK) that either give us enough equity to not really be able to be blown off the hand or win it outright for us. And we're getting 3 to 1, so we might even be getting the expressed odds assuming villain checks the turn.

If villain bets a normal sized bet ala $100, I think it becomes a fold. Not raising or betting myself unless I actually make a flush or straight.

This is the easiest flop call ever unless you have a deadon live tell of weakness... In which case I would CR.

Call flop. Consider quitting poker if you decide to fold here.

yes, I mean if we check raise flop and he calls, we have to be prepared to bet all turns to get him off his AK and AQ type hands and any KK and QQ that call our flop c/r

then, my plan would be to bink the river

Looks like I might have to give up my favorite hobby.

Curious why you see this as such an easy call. Could you provide some more detail behind that?

I think that's a pretty silly comment.

Based on hero's read and villain's pre-flop sizing, the 18 combos of AK, AA and TT are actually a decent % of villain's range. Those block our outs and/or have re-draw equity when we bink. Villain can also have the 6 combos of KK, which block 50% of our straight equity (at those times, instead of being around 12:1 to turn the straight, we are more like 24:1). We block half of JJ, QQ, but thing is, we'll never win enough chips vs those hands, anyway. And if we bink a turn Q or J, it's not always the case that it increases our equity.

OP, is TT+, AK an appropriate ranging for villain given 30 pre? Is he much wider? That's roughly the range I'm thinking based on your read, villain's pre-flop sizing, and his c-betting flop 4-way.

Calling 60 getting 3:1 with most of our immediate equity coming from the straight, we need to win on average 500+ when we bink a turn K *just to break even.* Position really matters here. It's going to be much more difficult to build pots.

You must have an incredible amount of confidence in, among many other things, our ability to build huge turn pots oop at a significant frequency and to have all 4 K outs available to hero very often despite the fact that it seems quite possible > 50% of villain's range contains at least 1 K.

Like I said above, I don't think calling is "bad," I probably do it too more than I don't... but I think it's going to be a small leak and more likely to be slightly -EV than +EV.

Bottom of the range I'm always calling? AK/AQs/Any pair. The borderline hands AQo/AJs/ATs/strong unsuited connectors are no go in this hand because they are likely dominated. The suited connectors are worth the occasional call this deep. With two deep calling stations any pair is a mandatory call.

Not a good flop for hero's hand. The normal line is fold. If you have a solid read that the smallish flop bet is weak and/or that villain makes a lot of once and done c-bets then calling occasionally is OK.

A raise is only workable if you have a solid read that a half pot bet is a probing bet hoping nobody plays back. In which case you can raise and your cards don't really matter.

+1 to this.

Folding here is so weak tight.

We have a GS to the nuts and a BD flush draw against a 1/2 pot bet.

Sure if we had no BD flush and Villian fires pot then yes you can fold but I would never fold here.

Yep. I´d add some AQ too. I discounted more in game but in hindsight we should give him 50%-75% of combos.

Cool.

With an A on board and Q in hand, 1/2 combos = 4-5 combos.

Adding it doesn't alter the math too much.

OK cool.

How much do you think we win on average when the turn is a K?

And do you lead turn K's? Or check them?

Well since OP said he will stack off with TPTK we get his whole stack unless he has QQ, JJ (maybe AQ) which we block.

No I wouldn't lead turn. I would check raise huge because he's not getting away from AK here ever.

I agree that's usually going to be the best way to get in the most chips.

But villain will check back the turn some % of the time.

Him checking back is very troubling to the EV of a flop call.

I also agree he won't get away from AK.

But when he has AK, we lose a K out and become a 16:1 dog to turn a straight - that really has to make it nearly impossible for a flop call to be +EV getting 3:1 direct with 17 bets left.

Worth mentioning, when he has AK and we turn a K, he has 4 river outs.

When he has AA or TT, he has 10 river outs.

It's not like this is a straightforward lol spot.

It might be marginal enough that you can do w/e. I still see a close (but not super close) fold.