I would define a "normal" live 3betting range as QQ+/AK+, maybe even tighter. I've been at tables for 10 hours and seen only a handful of 3bets and 0 have been light.

It appears his 3bet range is NOT "normal" but quite a bit wider. That's the whole point that we have to fight back somehow!

I'd model this situation preflop like this:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.812% 62.86% 01.95% 439164988 13622730.00 { TT+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 35.188% 33.24% 01.95% 232209584 13622730.00 { QTs }

Do we really like seeing a flop? Our hand flops okayish in that we'll have gutshots backdoors etc, but on a lot of those boards he's hitting pairs with broadways and it's going to be tough to make him fold. I certainly don't want to try to float then try to bluff the guy off a good top pair hand after calling his 3bet because I flopped a gutshot and now feel compelled to fight for the pot. If we flop a pair of queens or tens everyone ITT would want to fold to a DB, that's not a good spot.

Now let's assume he's only continuing to a 4bet with JJ+/AK. Our 4bet with ATC is immediately profitable. I'm not saying go out and 4bet all his small blind 3bets, but it would be profitable if he didn't adjust. If he continues with TT+/AQ+, we're still close to b/e on a 4bet and we have some equity postflop and our cbets should be much more effective because our range appears so much stronger ie contains a lot of KK+.



Let's look at another preflop scenario:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.045% 40.61% 05.44% 250323284 33511286.00 { TT+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 53.955% 48.52% 05.44% 299083584 33511286.00 { AQs }

We're doing quite a bit better in this case.

Even KQss has a 7% equity edge on QTss in this spot. That's a lot in the longrun.

Him 3betting T9s, JTs, KTs among others is not linear 3betting, especially from the small blind.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/56...59/index2.html

From my understanding linear and depolarized are similar terms. However, depolarized can sometimes mean only value or only bluffs, whereas linear usually refers to top x% of hands. Just semantics really

Anyways, I've posted a lot ITT, Gonna give it a rest for a few hours and let others chime in!

If we flat this 3 bet we will an SPR of about 4.5 with a reverse implied odds hand. A scenario hero does not want to be in, even in position. If we flat are we ever floating with air? Are we willing to semi bluff our draws(the times we are lucky enough to flop a draw)? I Just don't think calling is going to be the answer in this Spot.

Even if villan is 3 betting a debatable range of random broadways and 88+ we really don't fair all that well with Q high. I think we just end up having to fold the flop too often. Granted we seem to be in the dark about villan and how he plays post flop so we don't know if he is the type to just fire once and be done with the hand. We just have to be very certain or positional advantage as well as our post flop skills allow us to make calling profitable. I think it's debatable and I think folding can prevent us from compounding mistakes.

As far as the debate on this guys range goes I think we honestly have no clue what his range is. Your average Live player just doesn't have hands like 10 9 suited in there sb 3 betting range.

I say fold and either make smaller raises pre flop.... Oh yes and seat change from the one 2/5 player that seems to be giving us a lot of trouble.

Effective stacks: $775*
Hero is BTN, V ($1000) is SB, MP ($550) is a fit-or-fold rec player, BB ($800) is a nit

MP limps
Hero (BTN) raises QT to $25
V (SB) 3! to $70
BB folds
MP folds
Hero raises calls $70

I never really considered 4! here. I also didn't consider folding very long. I'm wondering if V is aware how much it sucks being OOP or maybe he just really does have a good hand. But I think he is 3! like 99+ at this point and maybe some Broadway's. I think we are deep enough to see a flop and I want to see if he takes the same line as before (leading for $75).

Pot: $145

Flop: 3 2 3

V thinks for a few seconds and bets $75 (same sizing as Hand 2)
Hero?

Just call. You're not representing much yet.

Let's call.

There are 16 clearly good turn cards. 3 T, 3 Q, 10 diamonds.

Other cards may be good, as well, tough to know which ones yet.

This is where we can own V in position. Calling flop gets us to a turn with a pot of 300 with over 500 left. We have some real maneuverability. We get to see a turn in position. We get to see if villain checks to us. I still think pre-flop is a limp, and I wish we were even deeper now allowing for even more manuverability and possible backdoor draw implied equity.

I think calling is better than raising largely because of position. Villain must act first again on the turn. Let's see what happens. I probably bet a diamond if he checks. I probably bet a club if he checks and plan to shove non-club rivers (V can c/c turn with a lot of club draws when a third club hits). If villain leads a diamond, I might consider shoving. There are so many permutations and possibilities re: card, villain action, bet sizing, etc; I feel good about our ability to play well.

Now that we called we certainly can't just fold even though this is a pretty big Wiff. We are basically playing Our hand as a bluff. We occasionally pick up equity but we really don't love making a pair with a 3rd club. It's good to be in position but I think it's far better to have a hand that can be good by the river without improving. I'm interested to see what sort of maneuverability we have when turn is a blank and villan bets again.

I suppose when we are checked to we can bet as a bluff when we don't improve. My question is if we do hit a pair are we betting if checked to? I'd assume yes but I'm just curious.

The fact that villan is doing the same sizing is curious and is worth discussion. It seems as if he is almost on auto pilot. He may very well be auto c betting which could allow us to take advantage on the turn. The hardest thing is we have no clue how often he double barrels. If we call turn he will be but in a tough spot with all his Broadway's. Against the pp portion of his range I really don't think we have a lot of fold equity.

When it comes down to it I am more of an observer at this point as I wasn't particularly pleased to call with Q high. OP any thoughts on what you think villans range is here?

If V leads again on a blank turn, I fold. If we make a pair and V checks, I'm very likely betting. The bet is for value + to get V to fold hands with equity.

Also, I'm happy to make a pair with a 3rd club. A turn club gives V many more flush draws than it does flushes. We can get value from those draws, which likely have fairly low equity.

Are you willing to shove river if we are called if it goes check bet call? What do we do in terms of sizing? Are we betting 150-175 and jamming river for a 2/3psb or less? It just doesn't seem like we ever get through unless the board runs out really scary.

I disagree with every decision in this hand so far and that pre-emptively includes the hand not ending now.

"Drawing to draw" is pure spew, ESPECIALLY on a paired board. We can make the case that we have real outs and phantom outs, but our real outs might lose us more money, and in a 3bet pot, we don't know what we're going to have to do to push him out if we hit a phantom out.

Also, Villain's sizing seems designed not to charge us to draw, but to induce spew now or later.

Even if we were deep enough that I would have liked to raise/call preflop, this is definitely one flop I'd be folding.

EDIT: One of the biggest problems I have with continuing here is that no matter whether we call or raise, our most likely perceived range is heavily weighted towards hands like medium pocket pairs that Villain can beat if he wasn't 3betting light. Plus Villain already has seen that we can get out of line, because of Hand 2. How wide do we think Villain is that we can win enough off the weak part of his range to compensate for our losses against the strong part?

We didn´t call pf to fold, so call...Let´s all be spewy LAGs together! Weeeeeeeeeee!

FYP

really can´t imagine almost everyone! would continue on on this flop in real time. i guess 90% would call pre and fold now. which actually might be the correct play.

One thing I don't get is OP references V having same sizing in hand 2 as if it is perhaps a license to make a move, but V had a hand he was willing to stack off with there. There was a post above explaining how the sizing is indicative of a value hand. Even more evidence is it is the exact same sizing and board texture of a previous hand where hero got owned.

We called preflop because we think V is likely FOS.

Nothing has changed.

But the flop also misses our perceived range too, so raising will have a low likelihood of taking the pot now. So be patient.

Let's see the turn, and see what V does.

Keep enough behind for a big bet otr.

oh hey look, it's a flop that puts us in the same exact situation as preflop...

there is literally no great option on this flop.

raising is wacky because why would we raise this flop with any value hand? because we're afraid of the ~10 combos of FDs V might have if we had a better hand?

folding, well, we didnt call to see a flop to fold on the most ridiculous board ever

i guess floating is best here.

i'm really not thrilled about this hand. i'd be asking for a seat change button, possibly a table change, very soon.

I mean, we have 2 overs and a backdoor flush draw. No, it's not the best flop, but we're possibly as strong as 30/70 against some of villain's value range. With a sample of 3/3, I also think we need to consider the possibility we have the best hand sometimes. I disagree with OP's range for V; I'm seeing a possibility, though not a certainty, of a wider range with some airier hands. I'm not suggesting we call down with Q-high, and like I said, I fold to another lead on blank turns. For now, we have position getting 3:1; let's peel one.

Didn't call preflop to fold one of the better flops for our hand and range that he'll cbet a ton.

Now we're in the awkward spot of floating or doubling floating q hi to try to win the pot against a seemingly good agro player. Bad spot. Much rather have sdv eg aqss or TT.

Notice if we 4b and cbet this board our hand looks insanely strong qq+ maybe some ak. As played our hand looks like 77-jj. Expect barrels on Broadway cards. He can even barrel bricks if he thinks you'll fold some of the weaker pocket pairs

I guess if you are going to play pre-flop this way, you need to call. I hope something good comes on the turn, but if he fires big, you have a real decision to make.

This line strikes me as making a lot of assumptions.

Speaking of assumptions...

The thing literally no one has said (but maybe has implied) is that it kind of appears that V is on auto pilot with these plays. He's 3! a button raiser thrice in an hour, and on two of those he's same betted the flop. I interpret this as a player who believes he has a trick to win money in these situations and just falls back on it, maybe a little too often.


As for the flop, it's an easy call. Our hand is what our hand is, and we've got pair draws and backdoor flush draws and we can rep the club draw. But to a point our hand doesn't matter. V will either barrel or will check, so call and figure it out. If he'd bet even 100 I'd be a lot more inclined to fold.

also jfc at how we played hand 2 in OP.

That depends on whether V thinks we are making adjustments to him or not. 3 in a row BTN vs. SB 3!, he should expect at least some type of adjustment. How he responds is unknown at this point.

Why does our range have to be capped? Against a totally random V, our raise/call 3! could cap us at AKs-AQs/QQ-88. Against the described V, we aren't capped. We can easily have AA-KK. If I posted a question: "How do I exploit this villain?" The responses would be to flat his 3! in position with AA-KK and let V value own himself, calling him down 3 streets and expecting to win ~80% of the time while occasionally losing to some strange sets and two pair hands, and to take the pot away when he shows weakness.

I actually made a thread about a year ago, My 3! Getting Flatted By AA/KK and I Overplay My Overpair (QQ-TT type hands). Because that exact situation was happening to me.

If I had AA-KK here and chose to play that way, the order of the hand would go:

1. Flat 3! IP
2. Call villain until he stops betting
3. Bet once villain stops betting

With 150 BB stacks and a 3! pot, we would easily get stacks in by the river and crush V. And being in position, we can see how often V fires a second barrel or third barrel. If would go like this ...

1. Hero raises BTN
2. V 3! from SB, Hero calls
3. V bets flop, Hero calls
4. V bets turn, Hero calls
5. V bets river, Hero calls and mostly wins

or

1. Hero raises BTN
2. V 3! from SB, Hero calls
3. V bets flop, Hero calls
4. V bets turn, Hero calls
5. V checks river, Hero shoves, V mostly folds, sometimes calls

or

1. Hero raises BTN
2. V 3! from SB, Hero calls
3. V bets flop, Hero calls
4. V checks turn, Hero bets, V mostly folds, sometimes calls
5. V checks river, Hero shoves, V mostly folds, sometimes calls

Well a lot of those hands are going to end without a showdown, meaning our QTs has the same value as AA or KK (assuming we pick up good equity along the way). Yes, I can accept sometimes we will get owned when he check/calls two streets or does something weird, but there's no reason to think he is going to reverse-trap us if we don't even think he is adjusting in real time.

QTs may not have been the hand to make a stand here, but now we are in the thick of it and can't simply play fit-or-fold. Ed Miller talks a lot about hands being profitable by combining showdown value/equity and steal value/equity. Well by playing QTs here we are cooking up a healthy portion of steal equity to make this hand profitable. But position should allow us to do that (I think). Ideally, yes we would want deeper stacks.

Overs + BDFD + Dynamic isn't much, but it's enough to see a turn I would think.

Regarding V's bet sizing, if he is smart, he is c-betting 1/2 PSB with his entire range: AA-99, AK, AQ, KQ, KJ, whatever the hell else he is showing up with here. There is nothing inherently "valuey" about a 1/2 PSB, especially with a straight draw and flush draw on the board and 90% of effective stacks still in play.

Also, my PF 4! range might be exclusively the bottom of my range here. I'm inclined to believe that V is FOS here, so 4 betting the top of my range makes no sense at all, because the most likely result is a fold. 4!ing with the middle of our range makes no sense because on the off chance V has something, we're making grumpy noises to ourselves. So 4! with the bottom so that if he sticks around we're not going broke (unless we hit a miracle flop) but if he doesn't, we can show the 7d or whatever if we're so inclined, or just be smugly satisfied that we rule and he drools.

Ah, excellent point.

I previously suggested a polarized 4-bet range, but your way is much better.

We should 4-bet only with junk and call with all playable hands.