I was trying to come up with a very rough approximation of EV. Does this make sense or seem logical to anyone?

1. 24% river club: [(0.60)*(700) + (0.40)*(-625)] = [420 - 250] = +$170 EV

2. 20% river diamond: [(0.80)*(1125) + (0.20)*(-625)] = [900 - 125] = +$775 EV

3. 6% river queen: [(0.40)*(1125) + (0.60)*(-625)] = [450 - 375] = +$75 EV

4. 50% river brick: [(0.75)*(-200)] + [(0.25)*(0.60)*(700)] + [(0.25)*(0.40)*-625] = [-150 + 105 - 62.5] = -$107.5 EV

[(0.24)*(170)] + [(0.2)*(775)] + [(0.06)*(75)] + [(0.5)*(-107.5)]
= [40.8 + 155 + 4.5 - 53.8] = +$146.5 EV

Assumptions:

1. 60% of the time when a club hits, V checks and we shove, he folds (+420) vs. 40% of the time when a club hits, V check/calls a shove (-250)

2. 80% of the time when a diamond hits we call/shove and win (+900) and 20% we lose to a boat (-125)

3. 40% of the river Q's we call/shove and are good (450) and 60% of the river Q's we call/shove and lose (-375)

4. 75% of the river bricks, we fold to a bet (-150 turn call), 60% of the remaining 25% V check/folds to our shove (105) and 40% of the remaining 25% V check/calls to our shove (-62.5)

You have omitted the part of villains range that bluff shoves clubs before you do (or actually has clubs) so I'm not sure 60% is reasonable.

True, that was a best case scenario.

If he shoves 25% of the time a club hits the river (and we fold, losing our $200 turn call) it lowers our club EV from $170 to $77.5 and overall weighted-average EV from $146.5 to $124.3.

If he shoves 50% of the time a club hits the river (and we fold, losing our $200 turn call) it lowers our club EV from $170 to -$15 and overall weighted-average EV from $146.5 to $102.1

the 1125's should be 925, and the 700s should be 500, you're including our $200 on the turn into the amount to be won.

EV can be calculated as:
-amt_at_risk * (1-winprob) + amt_to_be_won * (winprob) = EV
OR
total pot * (winprob) - amt_at_risk = EV

1125 and 700 are total pot type #s, but you're EV calc uses the 1st method

also minor edit - you're double counting the Q in #1 and #3

not sure it'll make a huge difference in the calc, but V will x/f some % of the time in #2 & #3.

^ S4, if we are counting our -200 turn calls when we fold river (or put in our last 425 and lose), we need to include them when we win the pot as well.

when evaluating a turn call of $200
some % of the time we lose $200
some % of the time we lose $625
some % of the time we win $500
some % of the time we win $925

your calc is working out all of the %'s in the decision tree such that we finally get to:
p1 * 500 + p2 * 925 - p3 * 200 - p4 * 625 = EV
where p1+p2+p3+p4 = 1

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr_Doomed View Post
Calling flop with the intention to fold turn if we don't pick up back door equity or bluff clubs seems bad.
Does it seem bad or is it bad? We are getting 3:1 pot odds on the flop call and our odds to hit a diamond or club on the turn are 2.2:1. To me, that is a simple pot odds call if we plan to steal later when clubs hit.

A big hole in that logic. Just because we pick up a diamond or club on the turn 2.2/1 of the time doesn't make calling ok. We are making an immediately unprofitable call on the flop and on the turn.

Your assumptions are best case which is not realistic. All arguments aside I wouldn't find myself in this spot very often if ever. I find it very hard to justify the flop call or turn call based on how this hand was played out.

In a thread you mentioned to me that we shouldn't compound our errors post flop just because we made a bad decision pre flop. I think there is value in that statement and it defiantly applies here.

Exactly wrong. You haven't called the 200 yet, so it counts as a loss if you lose it, but when you're trying to figure out how much you win, you can't include it since it began the calculation as part of your stack.

The other correct way to do the calculation would be to just assume you've called and treat the entire river pot as dead money, so that sometimes you win the river pot plus your stack, sometimes you win just the pot, and sometimes you lose your stack, but when you fold the river your EV is 0...but if you do it that way, you have to subtract 200 from your final answer to account for the turn call.

Yes, let's compare raising KJo UTG and then blasting away on the flop into three other players with no pair and no draw, a certain -EV proposition, to trying to turn a -EV spot into a +EV spot with bluff equity. That's definitely an apples to apples comparison!

I think the assumptions are fairly reasonable considering they result in Hero losing the pot 65% of the time on the river, even with position and 85 BB's behind to pressure V with.

Using the updated math from Vernon and suitedfours, the EV of calling $200 on the turn strictly hoping for diamonds or a Q is $175 (before factoring out the initial $200 turn call), and that is with the stipulations that we lose 20% of the time when we hit diamonds, either to a boat or a higher flush, and lose 60% of the time when we hit our Q and attempt to bluff catch.

Meaning, all we need to do to make calling +EV is be able to extract +$25 EV out of a pot with $700 in dead money in the 74% of rivers that are clubs or bricks (24% clubs, 50% bricks)

Using my reasonable (in my opinion) assumptions, that means winning ~25% of the remaining pots by bluffing, easily doable in position with a 60% PSB behind. I said I was playing this hand with hand equity + steal equity in mind, accepting the fact that the hand equity alone was not enough to call the preflop 3!.

[PHP]1. =[(0.75*((0.6)*(700)))+(0.75*(0.4)*(-425)))] * 24% clubs = $45
2. =[((0.8)*(1125))+((0.2)*(-425))] * 20% diamonds = $163
3. =[((0.4)*(1125))+((0.6)*(-425))] * 6% queens = $11.7
4. =[((0.25)*(0.6)*(700))+((0.25)*(0.4)*(-425))] * 50% bricks = $31.3

EV: (45 + 163 + 11.7 + 31.3) - 200 = +$51[/PHP]

Next action:

Effective stacks: $775

Pot: $295

Flop: 3 2 3

Turn: 5

V thinks for 20 seconds and bets $200
Hero calls $200

Called here to stick with my plan of value betting diamonds, bluff catching Q (may not have included in tree) and bluffing clubs



Pot: $695

River: 4

V checks
Hero shoves for $425

Results

Raise/fold pre, fold flop, fold turn, shove river. Don't attempt to educate the player pool even if you're just trying to defend your pride.

What about any of that hand educated the player pool? How to not win at 2/5?

Sounds like you got extremely lucky--you called the flop with almost no fold equity and what amounted to a naked backdoor flush draw--and you did indeed play this pretty badly.

That said, if he's gonna berate you, he deserved it.

If he's check hero'ing bricks you're losing a lot of money in this spot

i believe Havax is referring to:


he might not necessary be hero'ing all bricks. the 4 gives all Ax a straight, which considering V was muttering about 64s leads me to think he had at least 1 A

How much do we adjust our read on V for saying "There's just so much in the pot already." That seems like a pretty fishy thing to say.

The speech seems to suggest AA. I'm not folding that hand on any river card. If Hero can have 64 he can have 54.

Read the spoiler.

I thought the 4-6 comment was fishier myself if he thinks I am BTN raising and 3! defending with 64.

I interpreted his "worst card in the deck" comment to imply I was floating with AX and lucked out with a runner-runner straight instead.

He kinda grumbled something like "that's not the point / that doesn't matter" when I asked about my Q outs being live so I think he had JJ or something. Pretty sure he is snap calling with AA getting 2.6:1 on the call.

LMFAO...

4 literally the single best card in the deck. Guarantees a call by 100% of V's Ax range.

Also, LMFAO at the lesson...

Mumbling about a 6 seems inconsistent with JJ. Doesn't sound like a guy who understands he needs nearly 30% equity to call. Unless he viewed you as completely FOS

I mean, I can see the raise if he's trying to induce a shove...

FYP

Rofl

Yeah, V had Ax almost certainly. The only doubt in my mind about it is because I would have expected him to ship the river himself rather than c/c.