Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr_Doomed
In a thread you mentioned to me that we shouldn't compound our errors post flop just because we made a bad decision pre flop. I think there is value in that statement and it defiantly applies here.
Yes, let's compare raising KJo UTG and then blasting away on the flop into three other players with no pair and no draw, a certain -EV proposition, to trying to turn a -EV spot into a +EV spot with bluff equity. That's definitely an apples to apples comparison!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr_Doomed
Your assumptions are best case which is not realistic. All arguments aside I wouldn't find myself in this spot very often if ever. I find it very hard to justify the flop call or turn call based on how this hand was played out.
I think the assumptions are fairly reasonable considering they result in Hero losing the pot 65% of the time on the river, even with position and 85 BB's behind to pressure V with.
Using the updated math from Vernon and suitedfours, the EV of calling $200 on the turn strictly hoping for diamonds or a Q is $175 (before factoring out the initial $200 turn call), and that is with the stipulations that we lose 20% of the time when we hit diamonds, either to a boat or a higher flush, and lose 60% of the time when we hit our Q and attempt to bluff catch.
Meaning, all we need to do to make calling +EV is be able to extract +$25 EV out of a pot with $700 in dead money in the 74% of rivers that are clubs or bricks (24% clubs, 50% bricks)
Using my reasonable (in my opinion) assumptions, that means winning ~25% of the remaining pots by bluffing, easily doable in position with a 60% PSB behind. I said I was playing this hand with hand equity + steal equity in mind, accepting the fact that the hand equity alone was not enough to call the preflop 3!.
[PHP]1. =[(0.75*((0.6)*(700)))+(0.75*(0.4)*(-425)))] * 24% clubs = $45
2. =[((0.8)*(1125))+((0.2)*(-425))] * 20% diamonds = $163
3. =[((0.4)*(1125))+((0.6)*(-425))] * 6% queens = $11.7
4. =[((0.25)*(0.6)*(700))+((0.25)*(0.4)*(-425))] * 50% bricks = $31.3
EV: (45 + 163 + 11.7 + 31.3) - 200 = +$51[/PHP]