Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
PAHWM: 2/5 NL - Maximizing Value Flopping Top Set PAHWM: 2/5 NL - Maximizing Value Flopping Top Set

08-13-2015 , 02:37 PM
I'm a little on the fence with how I played this one. Not sure if I am being results oriented or just didn't maximize value enough but here goes. Will skip to the flop action because pre is standard.

Effective stacks: $950

V1 is UTG, mid-40's black man. Not a very good player (bad rec reg) but easy to talk to so I talk to him to nurture future action.

V2 is in MP, late-30's asian man. He just sat down 2 hands ago and I've never played with him before but he seems to be a 2/5 reg based on interactions with other players at the table.

OTTH,

V1 limps UTG
Hero looks down at AA and raises to $30
V2 calls $30 in MP
V1 calls $30

Pot: ~$90

Flop: A K 3

V1 checks
Hero?

I'm thinking - "it's hard to make money with top set and 3/4 Aces accounted for, but there's enough out there that I can start building a pot." Was weighing the merits of small vs. large sizing.
PAHWM: 2/5 NL - Maximizing Value Flopping Top Set Quote
08-13-2015 , 02:50 PM
I c-bet to ~60. Check/raise is too strong, and checking through would be a disaster.
PAHWM: 2/5 NL - Maximizing Value Flopping Top Set Quote
08-13-2015 , 02:55 PM
$75 seems good. Sometimes they just have nothing to call with. Obv their hands are weighted towards draws if someone does call...or raise, a raise would be nice.
PAHWM: 2/5 NL - Maximizing Value Flopping Top Set Quote
08-13-2015 , 02:57 PM
I'd bet $65 as I would most any c-bet given the pot size.

The A is out there though.

I can see going for big value: betting $100, hoping someone has the nut flush draw/blocker and is willing to call or re-raise. Like you said, most hand combos that involve an A are unlikely. Maybe V1 or V2 will see the big bet as a bluff and make a move.

Obviously checking is no good.
PAHWM: 2/5 NL - Maximizing Value Flopping Top Set Quote
08-13-2015 , 03:04 PM
Almost all the hands that are calling a small bet, will call a large bet. Flush draws, sets, Ax, etc. You're not going to get value from 88 or T9o by making a small bet.

Fairly draw-heavy board means bet close to pot. At least 75.
PAHWM: 2/5 NL - Maximizing Value Flopping Top Set Quote
08-13-2015 , 03:04 PM
I agree, I cbet 60 65 ish.
If you said V1 is not very good, hopefully he'll at least call thinking your just cbetting everything.
PAHWM: 2/5 NL - Maximizing Value Flopping Top Set Quote
08-13-2015 , 03:09 PM
I'm cbetting 50. There are still draws that they will call with, it's not only Ax. We have a hand that can either win a lot or lose a lot. Also a NFD may come over us which will be great. I am never slow playing or betting small in this spot
PAHWM: 2/5 NL - Maximizing Value Flopping Top Set Quote
08-13-2015 , 03:12 PM
Going on the larger side here, between $65 and $90 depending on what sort of bets people have been calling post flop at the table so far. Even if we don't know about these particular villains, when a table plays bigger, it tends to be a little bit contagious.

When they have weak hands like 76s/87s/98s (non spades), 22-TT, and a lot of Kx type hands they are not going to call no matter what you bet.
The weakest parts of the potential calling range include Axs Axo (non spades), JTs, QJs, QTs (non spades again) and maybe some KQ type hands. These will sometimes call for $50 - $65 and might fold for $75, but not all the time.

However, the KK (rare), 33, AK, A3o, K3s, and pretty much and XXss (esp Axss) type hands they have are likely not folding for any price. The AXss hands are calling up to ~1.5x pot. So we can get a lot of value from those hands esp the one that think they are way ahead but actually drawing fairly thin.

I don't think that his calling range gets that much bigger with a smaller sizing, and as a result we should bet larger.

If this was a Ax9s3s board I think I could get behind better smaller since TT-KK are far more likely to look you up with only one over card on the flop.
PAHWM: 2/5 NL - Maximizing Value Flopping Top Set Quote
08-13-2015 , 03:20 PM
I'm on the larger side with this cbet. I think his calling range is pretty inelastic, so might as well go for max value. $70-$90
PAHWM: 2/5 NL - Maximizing Value Flopping Top Set Quote
08-13-2015 , 03:37 PM
Yup, OP you're thinking about the right things. This is definitely a flop value bet.

I like 70.

It's all about what hands continue. You do block 75% of Ax, but that means 25% still remain. Ax is out there, and it will call. Flush draws will call. Kx and gut shots may or may not call. However, if you really want to target those, I think you have to bet so small... and even then, you might get folds... and if you do get calls, there's actually a good chance villains who call will also call somewhat larger bet sizes, anyway.

Lower pocket pairs probably aren't worth considering. They will likely fold always on the AKx board, and, if you want to target those, you have to bet like 1/5 of pot, and that just doesn't make sense considering V's full range.
PAHWM: 2/5 NL - Maximizing Value Flopping Top Set Quote
08-13-2015 , 03:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch
Going on the larger side here, between $65 and $90 depending on what sort of bets people have been calling post flop at the table so far. Even if we don't know about these particular villains, when a table plays bigger, it tends to be a little bit contagious.

When they have weak hands like 76s/87s/98s (non spades), 22-TT, and a lot of Kx type hands they are not going to call no matter what you bet.
The weakest parts of the potential calling range include Axs Axo (non spades), JTs, QJs, QTs (non spades again) and maybe some KQ type hands. These will sometimes call for $50 - $65 and might fold for $75, but not all the time.

However, the KK (rare), 33, AK, A3o, K3s, and pretty much and XXss (esp Axss) type hands they have are likely not folding for any price. The AXss hands are calling up to ~1.5x pot. So we can get a lot of value from those hands esp the one that think they are way ahead but actually drawing fairly thin.

I don't think that his calling range gets that much bigger with a smaller sizing, and as a result we should bet larger.

If this was a Ax9s3s board I think I could get behind better smaller since TT-KK are far more likely to look you up with only one over card on the flop.
+1
This post describes my thoughts more clearly than I could have.

When we flop this strong on a some what wet board multi way we want to target the strong parts of villans ranges. No sense in checking or betting half pot. Let's go for fat value bet 80.
PAHWM: 2/5 NL - Maximizing Value Flopping Top Set Quote
08-13-2015 , 03:56 PM
Well I clearly effed this one up...

Pot: ~$90

Flop: A K 3

V1 checks
Hero bets $55
V2 calls $55
V1 calls $55

I didn't want to spook anyone off and thought slightly more than half would entice callers. With my raise from UTG+1 and barreling for $90 I would think I am highbeaming AA, KK or AK pretty much not wanting to get drawn out on which would likely fold out all the non-nut draws, although looking back, that's exactly what I should be targeting as that is all that will continue.

Pot: ~$255

Turn: 3

V1 checks
Hero?
PAHWM: 2/5 NL - Maximizing Value Flopping Top Set Quote
08-13-2015 , 04:05 PM
I think I like another bet -- about half pot is good. I think it actually looks weaker than check/calling, but I doubt they are betting with much. I guess you could check and then bet (or raise) river if you think you will get only two streets.

I'm not sure you get much more unless a spade or maybe K comes on river, unless someone miraculously has A3. (I hope nobody has 33 -- such a cooler.)
PAHWM: 2/5 NL - Maximizing Value Flopping Top Set Quote
08-13-2015 , 04:06 PM
stacks are ~$865, so we want to get everything in vs at least 1 V. it's going to be very hard to get both AI.

i'd like to go 175-225 here. if 1 calls, then we have just under a PSB, but praying V2 shoves and V1 calls.
PAHWM: 2/5 NL - Maximizing Value Flopping Top Set Quote
08-13-2015 , 04:06 PM
Grunch...

If there was ever a spot to not Cbet, this is it.

Sure, V's with FD are going to call all bets. But that's the only draw out there that will come along.

Otherwise, we're targeting the 1 AX hand.

I check and hope to call a bet.

If it checks through, then lead the turn for 1/2 pot.
PAHWM: 2/5 NL - Maximizing Value Flopping Top Set Quote
08-13-2015 , 04:08 PM
Grunch OTT.

Since we were able to get two calls from our flop bet, then we should keep going. 1/2 to 2/3 pot.

$150.

Obviously never folding.
PAHWM: 2/5 NL - Maximizing Value Flopping Top Set Quote
08-13-2015 , 04:10 PM
Checking is really bad. Turn is 150 at least.
PAHWM: 2/5 NL - Maximizing Value Flopping Top Set Quote
08-13-2015 , 04:12 PM
Don't be afraid to wait more time before posting another street.
As you can see here, we have someone who strongly disagrees with what other people think, and it would be nice to let us discuss, argue, debate, whatever with each other before we see more action.

Having said that, I'd bet ~1/2 pot here. We don't really want anything folding here.
All Ax two pair just "improved" to 2p with a K kicker.
And all flush draws/straight draws are drawing dead.

The 3 pairing pretty much gives us a stone lock on the hand, so it would be basicly tragic if anyone folded anything at any point now.
$125 here I think.
PAHWM: 2/5 NL - Maximizing Value Flopping Top Set Quote
08-13-2015 , 04:17 PM
If Hero had the A in his hand, this would be a 100% certain check/call OTF.

As it is, I'm more interested in harvesting some value from the marginal hands that either take a stab at the flop, or catch up a bit OTT, at the risk of not charging QJ or to hit their draw.

V1 limp/called from UTG, but we don't have a read for his range here.

I presume V2's range is 50%+ of hands.
PAHWM: 2/5 NL - Maximizing Value Flopping Top Set Quote
08-13-2015 , 04:19 PM
I'm going about half pot on the turn - I want flush draws to think they are getting a decent price. I don't see much merit in a c/r to target 3x because 3x is probably raising our bet anyway, and I don't believe Vs will bother bluffing on this board multiway.

I'm undecided on the flop. My default is to bet, and I think that's probably correct. But I'm seriously considering whether c/c is better; I think that if Vs check this flop through, they likely didn't have a hand that would call a bet (T9 non-spades, for example, or 88-).
PAHWM: 2/5 NL - Maximizing Value Flopping Top Set Quote
08-13-2015 , 04:29 PM
If we only get 1 caller we would need to max our bets to get our stack in if no one raises. If we can get 2 calls on the turn we can set up a shipable river. They called flop with something so I like $175. If they both call we can jam river with just under a PSB. if we only get one call we can still get a large part of our stack in.
PAHWM: 2/5 NL - Maximizing Value Flopping Top Set Quote
08-13-2015 , 04:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz
Well I clearly effed this one up...

Pot: ~$90

Flop: A K 3

V1 checks
Hero bets $55
V2 calls $55
V1 calls $55

I didn't want to spook anyone off and thought slightly more than half would entice callers. With my raise from UTG+1 and barreling for $90 I would think I am highbeaming AA, KK or AK pretty much not wanting to get drawn out on which would likely fold out all the non-nut draws, although looking back, that's exactly what I should be targeting as that is all that will continue.

Pot: ~$255

Turn: 3

V1 checks
Hero?
I'm probably checking turn with both of them involved. Yeah sometimes it gets checked through, but an ace is betting, it's possible someone could have a hand like 34dd/35dd, and someone might stab with a flush draw but FDs often fold on these AK paired boards facing a second barrel from the PFR. I think it's going to be pretty tough to get three streets here and if you lead three times it just looks incredibly strong. Also if a spade hits the river, I'm definitely checking or betting really small (like $30) to induce a raise.
PAHWM: 2/5 NL - Maximizing Value Flopping Top Set Quote
08-13-2015 , 04:30 PM
Decent turn card, OP.

I like 200.

That actually creates a river pot of precisely 1 PSB if you get 2 calls.

It can also create a huge pot, which gives you options on the river (bet yourself vs. check).
PAHWM: 2/5 NL - Maximizing Value Flopping Top Set Quote
08-13-2015 , 04:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94
I'm probably checking turn with both of them involved. Yeah sometimes it gets checked through, but an ace is betting, it's possible someone could have a hand like 34dd/35dd, and someone might stab with a flush draw but FDs often fold on these AK paired boards facing a second barrel from the PFR. I think it's going to be pretty tough to get three streets here and if you lead three times it just looks incredibly strong.
I prefer to check the flop, but generally agree, we're not getting three streets.

Having said that, the 3 pairing like this isn't scary to most villains, who will still draw with SD and FD, even though they are likely drawing dead (or at least wicked thin) now with the A and K out there for hero's [KK+,AK].

So I still bet here expecting calls.
PAHWM: 2/5 NL - Maximizing Value Flopping Top Set Quote
08-13-2015 , 05:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lapidator
I prefer to check the flop, but generally agree, we're not getting three streets.

Having said that, the 3 pairing like this isn't scary to most villains, who will still draw with SD and FD, even though they are likely drawing dead (or at least wicked thin) now with the A and K out there for hero's [KK+,AK].

So I still bet here expecting calls.
Im never checking this flop. Max your value and fire 70.

OTT 150-180 is where id be.

River depending on 1 or 2 calls comes down to your sizing. I play it large and what is the guy saying betting $30 dollars looking for a raise? lol who does that
PAHWM: 2/5 NL - Maximizing Value Flopping Top Set Quote

      
m