OP, what set/2-pr combos does V have when he checks back flop? We also block KQ/KJ.

River - AP, since V did not raise turn, $75ish/fold. His hand looks more like AQ/AJ.

Bet up to 1/2 pot on the river (as much as you feel he'll call)

It's not just about being good. It's about being good >50% of the time when he calls. We want to bet an amount where his weak two-pairs are forced to sigh-call. I don't think a 3/4 PSB accomplishes that.

We want him to think we are thinly value betting something like AK where he has a profitable call with hands like KJ/QJ/J9. If we bet an amount where he thinks we're never worse than KQ+ then he is going to be folding his entire range that doesn't contain a T.

That's fair. Half Pot is probably the better option.

Ok with checking the flop.

Love the turn bet, as a 2nd check OTT screams we do not have a straight. Turn bet keeps our range wide and makes it less likely Villain will try to blow us off the hand.

I'm betting 3/4 pot OTR, and expect to be called by 2p or a worse set.

If we get raised, it's pretty gross but depending on sizing you may need to pay it off.

River action: I lead out for about half-pot, $110. Villain shuffles chips for 5-10 seconds, then throws out 5 black chips, raises to $500 total.

My thoughts at the time:

1 - yuck

2 - the 'meta' perspective is that he has run two rather large river bluffs on me in the recent past, and I've picked them both off. They were much 'easier' to spot vs this hand, though (in that his combos of bluff cards were high relative to value hands that played the same way). I would *think* this would make him less likely to bluff me on the river, and more likely to raise me for value.

3 - However... I ranged *myself* to not have very many 10s, opening up the possibility that he could turn a value-ish hand into a bluff. I don't play short-handed very often, and my 3bet range preflop was a little too narrow towards higher value hands (AQ+, 99+). I 'felt like' he would have me on this narrower range with fewer 10s in my hand (besides 10-10).

4 - He should have plenty of 10s in his preflop calling range... OTOH, a 10 will often raise turn (or flop) to build the pot.


#2 makes me want to fold... #3 makes me want to call

Call or fold?

If my hasty math is right you are getting about 2:1 on a call. I think you are good 33% of the time for sure. I just don't think he has as many 10s as some think he does. I think you cry a bit and call.

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Bet flop ckc turn ck decide riv. AP don't level yourself into a call.

I tanked for 30-60 seconds.. really thought about it. As noted earlier, our history made me question it - would he *really* run a 3rd river bluff when I've called him light twice before?
But - I knew he knew I was unlikely to have a 10...

I folded, he didn't show.

Later on, I asked if he had the straight, told him I folded top set. "You're too good, man..." in a tone that I interpreted as legit frustrated that I called him twice correctly, and folded correctly also. Of course, he could be completely bull****ting me, too.

Thanks for the feedback. One thing I didn't do, that I normally do and should have was analyze the pot odds at the end. Might have pushed me to a call given his raise was only half-pot.

I know that I got lost in the hand, being out of position on such a dynamic board. Should probably default to more passive play in those pots against trickier and/or competent villains...

Don’t tell him what you had. I would have folded as well as played. Part of the reason I prefer a smaller bet is we can call reasonable raises.

Thinking a little more...

If he has a 10, he played the turn wrong, yes? Should've raised to build the pot, charge me for potential full house draw. Then, I may be priced in to call bigger bets on the river when board doesn't pair...?

It's certainly possible he slow-played the turn.. just feeling like maybe I should've called river.

(but OTOH, not to beat a dead horse... I've called him light on his only 2 large river bets in our history of playing together, he was caught bluffing both.. so therefore less likely to bluff 3rd time.. argh i dunno)