Saturday night at casino, 2/5 table just opened, this is 2nd hand dealt. We are 4-5 handed. I took down 1st hand raising pre, c-bet takes pot.


Hero: mid-40s white guy, winning reg TAG image, but don't play often anymore. Used to play a ton, but only about 1-2 sessions a month past year.

Villain: local grinder, always playing weekend nights when 2/5 goes, basically grinds 1/2 and 2/5 all week. Sticks to NL even though many local pros have moved to PLO. Clearly winning player, but tends to keep eyes in his phone when not in a hand, so often on auto-pilot until he's in a hand. Historically saw him as straight-forward / ABC-ish, but he seems a bit more 'tricky' lately, as noted below:

History: While we haven't played much together, we have had two big hands over the past few months. Both involved hands where I was preflop raiser, and he ended up running a large bluff on the river (which is not something I have seen him do a lot of). One involved a bloated 3-way pot where other villain and I were clearly not 'strong' by the river, he had missed FD and made a giant raise on a paired board - I called with overpair and won a $2500 pot). Other hand he raised me heads-up OTF with a FD, I called down 3 streets with top pair/good kicker.

We are friendly, he's commented how I have his number blah blah blah...


This hand (4-handed):

We both have $1,000 behind..

Villain raised BTN to $15, SB folds, I am in BB with KcKd. I 3bet to $55, he thinks for a few seconds and calls.

Flop ($105): 9 J Q

We are first to act: thoughts? (my thinking in the moment was split between c-bet and check.. hits his range pretty hard..)

I like X/C and I also like X/R. We block the nuts and can narrow his range quickly if he calls or puts more money in when we raise. We get put in bad spots when we lead.

I like:

bet $40 >>> x/c >>>>>> bet $70 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> x/r

Seems like a good flop to range bet small. You've got like 88+, ATo+, QJo+ here.

+1

All options have merit. Think I would prefer to win small pot here rather than big pot. I assume you have a tight 3bet range from BB. This flop just smokes that range.

So likely not check folding any combo.

Think I just lead small vs this villain.

Bet $60.

Trouble comes when he check raises. I think I would fold. Because his equity on his bluffs are so high. And fact that he likely doesn't feel like bluffing you in big pots.

But still leading $60

check call, evaluate

Probably worse then a flop with an ace on it for kings.


He almost never has k10 here but lots of two pairs and sets in his range.

The best way to get value and minimize risk is to let him bluff at it or overplay top pair.

4-handed raise/call range should be somewhat wider ip. I still like a C/C.

Don't like $40. Bet sizing tells are super easy to pick up on. Betting small with weaker hands, and betting larger with strong hands and bluffs is backbone of LLSNL.

Betting 50% with our whole betting range prevents tipping anyone off.

Yes, I believe it matters^^^^^

Standard strategy for this forum. Why is it everyone thinks this.

They will never call me with worse, so maybe I can induce a bluff.

There are a lot of worse hands that can call, add in fact this is not a board our villain is likely to throw in low equity bluff. So we are only inducing high equity bluffs on this board. Likely from hands that are going to call.

Trying to get max value out of 67s shouldnt be our priority.

You know that sort of sounds like that range bet thingamajig I mentioned.

I think that if he has a lot of two pair in his range then he also has a lot of pair plus draw hands. So, I do prefer leading here and planning to call a reasonable raise if faced with it. This board does hit both ranges relatively well, so I think we should be looming to get value for our hand and gathering some info. If we are raised we can look to check call most turns and reevaluate.

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Standard c-bet of up to 1/2 pot seems in order.

I'm going $45-50 here.

V sounds borderline spewy.

Reading comprehension is hard. Sorry.

Still don't like smaller cbet on this board. Since we are heavily weighted towards value. Prefer to bet 1/2 pot.

But ya, If you betting whole range $40. I can get behind that too

Thanks for the feedback.

Back to the hand:

Hero checks, villain checks.

Turn ($105): 9 J Q ... K (I originally said I held KcKd but that must be wrong as this K completed the rainbow)

So.. as long as he doesn't have a 10, I'm way ahead. And if he does, boat outs are there.

Action?

Small edit to OP re villain's history of big hands with me: 2nd hand I described - he was on button - I raised pre but c/c'd 3 streets with top pair (Ace-10 on A-Q-J flop). He didn't raise flop, just bet out 3 streets, small on flop and turn, biggish on river. Had missed FD.

Bet $80. Calling basically any raise.

Since we missed an opportunity to bet the flop I think you have to lead here. We are only losing to a ten and I think we have more of them in our range than V does. I agree with the post above: fire about 80 and plan to call a raise.

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flop i'd check.

ott i'd check again

check/call turn.

What do we think villains flop check back range is? Feels to me like 2pair bets for value + protection on this board, as do sets?
Villain might check back hands like JT, QT, 9T, 77, 88.. what else? KQ, although we block most of them? What about AQ? Can AQ and AK be in his check back range?
I think I prefer betting for value but if we’re raised I think we’re behind

Checking on the flop isn't bad, but for those saying he hits this board hard, so do we. I'm fairly often 3betting broadways in this dynamic. If you can't rep a lot of straights and sets on this board then you probably aren't 3betting enough. Anyway as played turn is a check.

I actually think most Vs are betting most pair + 10 combos OTF. Its just too "scary" of a board to most LLSNL players that it seems like a perfect semiblufffing situation. That's why I said I thought we had more Ts in our range than V does. I think this board does hit both of us very hard and his check back on the flop seems like he was getting trappy with two pair or trips. So I think we need to start getting some value on the turn.


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I decided to bet the turn...

Villain raised BTN to $15, SB folds, I am in BB with KK. I 3bet to $55, he thinks for a few seconds and calls.

Flop ($105): 9 J Q ...check-check

Turn: ($105): K

I lead for $55, Villain calls fairly quickly.

(my thought was to get some value if he happens to have 2-pair or lower set.. to be honest didn't think through what I'd do if he raised turn. I was definitely playing this hand a bit lost and without solid strategy in the moment)

River: ($215): 2



Action?

Keep betting. $70-80.

Keep betting. If you were good OTT you are good now. I would be looking to bet 3/4 pot and probably a crying call if you get raised.

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