Quote:
Originally Posted by 8ballJunkie
Is it really a mistake for draws to call if they can get the rest of the money in on the turn when they hit, and just fold when they don't?
I don't like jamming either, per se, but it might be the least worst option given the stack sizes...
Often it will be a mistake. If V has a flush draw, he has 8 outs (Tc no good). With one card to come, he's about 18% to make it. Let's neglect our boat redraw and consider only the larger stack.
18% of the time he's going to win the 200 in the pot along with our 400 for a total of 600. 82% of the time he's going to lose 140.
18% * 600 = +108
82% * -140 = -115
This is a simplified analysis. Obviously if the first V comes along, second V is going to be getting the right price (at least for the NFD). Similarly, he might have a combo draw that gives him more outs. Straight draws don't have any chance to hit and boat us simultaneously. But, OTOH, we do have our boat redraw and there's one card that makes a flush but gives us our boat and he's going to have a hard time getting away from that. The smaller stack stands to win less and so would be making a bigger mistake.
Let's say only the bigger stack calls and the flush misses. Pot will be 600 and we'll jam for 200. He might call again figuring the 4:1 odds are close enough and we might have some bluffs in our range, giving him extra outs. He'll once again be making a mistake, especially since he'll actually have only 7 or 8 outs.
Of course, there are also scenarios where he picks up additional outs with a straight draw, meaning he wouldn't be making a mistake to call on the turn or he might already have a combo draw.
Raising less than all-in is tricky and I might be over- or underweighting some factors that turn this into a clear shove. It's certainly higher variance. I just think the significant overbet shove is going to let some hands get away that we'd really like to keep in (including draws, if we can charge them enough and even some 2P that fear the nuts, a set or a higher 2P).