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PAHWM 2/5 bellagio 99 in SB PAHWM 2/5 bellagio 99 in SB

05-04-2017 , 05:00 PM
raise to 30 is prob my norm especially 100BBs deep, limping isn't the worst play in the world OOP, I just would like to be deeper effective to start mixing in like 50% raise 50 % limp, 100BBs deep you should be, IMO 90% raise 10% call (not really random but more of game flow dependent on when to limp).

As played on flop call, keep the spot in the hand, and see a turn IMO. Also I like your pot size lead
PAHWM 2/5 bellagio 99 in SB Quote
05-04-2017 , 05:58 PM
I think I want to reraise here. "Limpy" V1 should have 2 pair combos I can get value from now, before scare cards come. V2 seems like he'd have a lot of draws here. It's unlikely anyone has top set, or, for the most part, a made straight (unless it's us, having completed the SB).
PAHWM 2/5 bellagio 99 in SB Quote
05-04-2017 , 06:27 PM
We're getting nearly 4:1 on a call and may well be ahead. I'm not folding.

Raising doesn't seem all that useful.

I like a call to keep things from getting out of hand and gather some more information before we start getting all up in everybody's grille.

My general plan is to spike a boat and stack off to the higher boat. Fallback plan is to make a boat and actually win. Other than that, I think we'll prolly have to play poker based on turn card.
PAHWM 2/5 bellagio 99 in SB Quote
05-04-2017 , 06:40 PM
Aside from the turn card itself, information will be limited since we will just be first to act on the turn anyway.

And how exactly does seeing the card help us? If it's a blank, we stack 2p and 77 just the same as we would have OTF, but fold out draws that could have called there. If it's a J, 6 or 8 we miss all the value from 2p/77.
PAHWM 2/5 bellagio 99 in SB Quote
05-04-2017 , 06:46 PM
V's range:

FD's = combo draws (10-8, 8-7, SFD's, 8-9 mostly, and plenty of weird stuff) = 10-X (Q-10, K-10 & A-10) >SD (QJ & KJ)> 6-8 > two pair (hero blocks)

He should have pocket 10's just about never.

Reraise to $200 (a pot bet) and look to shove turn. It sucks to knock 10-X out of the hand most of the time, but much more of V's range is draws. RIO's of letting V draw cheap and stack you are punishing. Hero doesn't have any reads to let him get out of the hand easily if he checks the turn and faces a big bet and a scare card. (1/2 of deck comprises scare cards.)

Stronger combo draws will call. Maybe you get a call from A-10 sometimes. In any case, I think you are rarely behind on the flop, and you have a nice redraw against a flopped straight.

A FD hitting the turn will be ugly without reads and will lead to a tough decision but prolly a c/c.
PAHWM 2/5 bellagio 99 in SB Quote
05-04-2017 , 06:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Case2
We're getting nearly 4:1 on a call and may well be ahead. I'm not folding.

Raising doesn't seem all that useful.

I like a call to keep things from getting out of hand and gather some more information before we start getting all up in everybody's grille.

My general plan is to spike a boat and stack off to the higher boat. Fallback plan is to make a boat and actually win. Other than that, I think we'll prolly have to play poker based on turn card.
We would be raising because we are ahead of both players ranges and will be very ahead of vs calling ranges. the second one assumes the spot plays J8o,T8o,98o for the limp in position...the arguments for seeing the turn are that v1 has value heavy and will bet blanks again if checked and letting the spot act to a single bet, before we jam on good cards for us. we should be okay on non-clubs, non-sixes or jacks and prob even can c/call most clubs action dependent, our only always folding cards imo are the Jc and 6c where everything gets there. thinking about it we are only 100bbs deep do raising is prob better but deeper calling is something to think about.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
433,440 trials (Exhaustive)
board: T97
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
9h9s50.12% 215,3675,603
Tx9x,Tx7x,9x7x,Tx8x,77,88,15%-30%:*c*c,Jx8x22.44% 87,73020,870
Tx7x,9x7x,Tx8x,20%-30%:*c*c,Jx8x27.44% 109,42220,819

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
1,638,945 trials (Exhaustive)
board: T97
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
9h9s49.64% 809,44912,008
Tx9x,JxQx,Tx7x,9x7x,Tx8x,77,88,15%-30%:*c*c,Jx8x22.96% 341,13674,135
Tx7x,9x7x,T8,20%-30%:*c*c,J8,98,JdTd,JQ27.40% 413,95574,009

Last edited by kimoser22; 05-04-2017 at 06:55 PM. Reason: added JdTd for fish and JxQx for v1 JQ for p2
PAHWM 2/5 bellagio 99 in SB Quote
05-04-2017 , 07:22 PM
Gotta raise it up. We're ahead of both their ranges and half the deck is bad for us, and we're OOP against 2 opponents. If he has j8/86 either hit a boat or slap yourself for not raising pre.
PAHWM 2/5 bellagio 99 in SB Quote
05-04-2017 , 07:36 PM
3-bet to $175. AI on most turns. Not folding middle set for 80 bbs effective.

Can't flat flop b/c the drawing part of his range may check turn. Alternatively, u could lead turn but building a pot otf is optimal.
PAHWM 2/5 bellagio 99 in SB Quote
05-04-2017 , 07:56 PM
nice dude, you flopped a set. give them the business imo
PAHWM 2/5 bellagio 99 in SB Quote
05-04-2017 , 08:43 PM
Shove
PAHWM 2/5 bellagio 99 in SB Quote
05-04-2017 , 09:49 PM
$200 to go.

Hes got TT about 0% of the time, so your up against draws, combo draws, 2 pairs, and maybe flopped straights (because you didnt raise pf). Your ahead of all except 86 and J8 (in that case just bink your fh imo). half the deck is an awful turn card. shovel the monies in now.
PAHWM 2/5 bellagio 99 in SB Quote
05-04-2017 , 10:32 PM
Say, let's gamboooool a push all chips in the middle.
PAHWM 2/5 bellagio 99 in SB Quote
05-05-2017 , 12:03 AM
Yeah, what I said was stupid.

With our call there's 200 in the middle and either 335 or 410 behind. I don't love shoving 1.5X to 2X the pot here. Flush and straight draws are about 3:1 dogs if they see both cards. I think we can make it 200 and perhaps allow a draw to make a mistake by calling. It might also help 2P come along. The rest goes in on the turn of course.

That said, shoving can't be bad. It just lets draws and maybe some 2P get away.
PAHWM 2/5 bellagio 99 in SB Quote
05-05-2017 , 03:56 AM
Is it really a mistake for draws to call if they can get the rest of the money in on the turn when they hit, and just fold when they don't?

I don't like jamming either, per se, but it might be the least worst option given the stack sizes...
PAHWM 2/5 bellagio 99 in SB Quote
05-05-2017 , 04:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lapidator
Just flat. Position is a thing.
def. an option on certain tables and with your image.

If i feel i need to bet something like 50 to get this within reasonable players post, ill limp instead.
PAHWM 2/5 bellagio 99 in SB Quote
05-05-2017 , 09:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 8ballJunkie
Is it really a mistake for draws to call if they can get the rest of the money in on the turn when they hit, and just fold when they don't?

I don't like jamming either, per se, but it might be the least worst option given the stack sizes...
Often it will be a mistake. If V has a flush draw, he has 8 outs (Tc no good). With one card to come, he's about 18% to make it. Let's neglect our boat redraw and consider only the larger stack.

18% of the time he's going to win the 200 in the pot along with our 400 for a total of 600. 82% of the time he's going to lose 140.

18% * 600 = +108
82% * -140 = -115

This is a simplified analysis. Obviously if the first V comes along, second V is going to be getting the right price (at least for the NFD). Similarly, he might have a combo draw that gives him more outs. Straight draws don't have any chance to hit and boat us simultaneously. But, OTOH, we do have our boat redraw and there's one card that makes a flush but gives us our boat and he's going to have a hard time getting away from that. The smaller stack stands to win less and so would be making a bigger mistake.

Let's say only the bigger stack calls and the flush misses. Pot will be 600 and we'll jam for 200. He might call again figuring the 4:1 odds are close enough and we might have some bluffs in our range, giving him extra outs. He'll once again be making a mistake, especially since he'll actually have only 7 or 8 outs.

Of course, there are also scenarios where he picks up additional outs with a straight draw, meaning he wouldn't be making a mistake to call on the turn or he might already have a combo draw.

Raising less than all-in is tricky and I might be over- or underweighting some factors that turn this into a clear shove. It's certainly higher variance. I just think the significant overbet shove is going to let some hands get away that we'd really like to keep in (including draws, if we can charge them enough and even some 2P that fear the nuts, a set or a higher 2P).
PAHWM 2/5 bellagio 99 in SB Quote
05-05-2017 , 09:18 PM
WTF @ completing pre. Raise 100% of the time. So nitty. As played, ship. Nut low position, hard for them to realize their equity, etc. etc.
PAHWM 2/5 bellagio 99 in SB Quote
05-05-2017 , 09:19 PM
Also no limps from EP makes this complete incredibly bad and indefensible. And i'd still raise if first two players limped.
PAHWM 2/5 bellagio 99 in SB Quote
05-05-2017 , 10:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Case2
Raising less than all-in is tricky and I might be over- or underweighting some factors that turn this into a clear shove. It's certainly higher variance. I just think the significant overbet shove is going to let some hands get away that we'd really like to keep in (including draws, if we can charge them enough and even some 2P that fear the nuts, a set or a higher 2P).
Another thought is that making it 200 with just another 200 behind makes it so easy for most Vs (?) to correctly conclude that we are never folding, and thus that we have a nutted range that's milking them. All-in lets them put us on a semi-bluff with a draw, and maybe even level themselves into calling with 1P.

Against the type of player who only looks at absolute bet size, the opposite would be true. I think we need a read before assuming that, though. Most 2/5 players are at least looking at pots and stacks.
PAHWM 2/5 bellagio 99 in SB Quote
05-06-2017 , 01:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 22dueces22
Thinking back, 99 and 88 prob should be raises nearly every time from SB after 2 or less limps.

If there were 3+ limps, would this change our desire to make it 30$?

If we make it 30$, I feel like if the BB or first limper then calls, then it "prices me in" for all the other limpers...which kinda sucks for us unless we bink a set.
The more limps there are, the happier I am to raise a mid pocket pair preflop. More dead money for us to win, and if we do set off a cascade of calls we just end up set mining which is fine too (and when we do flop a set it's somewhat disguised)

Always raising 99 preflop over limps from any position.
PAHWM 2/5 bellagio 99 in SB Quote

      
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