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PAHWM 2/5 PAHWM 2/5

01-27-2018 , 07:22 PM
$125 looks good. Going from $50 to $150 is a pretty big jump.
PAHWM 2/5 Quote
01-27-2018 , 11:29 PM
Pot is $180
Board is 8c7d4cAh

Hero leads for $100
V2 calls

I figure either the ace helps villain or he has a draw or he is done with the hand. No reason to slow down yet after I donk flop.

Pot is $380
Board is 8c7d4cAh2d

River is a total brick. What is the best way to approach this?
PAHWM 2/5 Quote
01-28-2018 , 12:14 AM
Flop a coin I feel like you can make arguments for bet and x/stuff. When they bluff busted ’s you look like a genius. When they x back a value hand that would call a large value bet you look dumb.

Whatever made hands he has is not very strong in my opinion. I don’t think he calls a large bet so I’d go small here like $125 again. Gives him a chance to call with his weak SDV hands and a chance to bluff shove busted ’s still. And if he’s got two-pair he can still raise.
PAHWM 2/5 Quote
01-28-2018 , 01:16 AM
Shove, but you should have stacked off on this run out far better than this - win or lose.
PAHWM 2/5 Quote
01-28-2018 , 03:30 AM
I'm V2 & you donk the flop & then continue betting OTT with a bet 2x that OTF; I'm thinking my over-pair is no good. You're not a LAG. V2 is on "entitlement tilt" I do believe, unless he's milking you. I'd bet whatever you think in 'real time' that he would call. He's not folding QQ, because you raise KK pre & he 'deserves' to win a pot.
PAHWM 2/5 Quote
01-28-2018 , 04:05 AM
I had to come back to this, because V2 is either totally blind, playing only his card strength, or is on entitlement tilt. Or, he has a set of his own, or got out of line with 65s.

Anyway, if he has an overpair, you have, by the size of your bets, slowly warmed up his tilt without ringing any alarms [if he has any] to the point that OTR, he's invested $170 & is not going to fold to a reasonable bet. It's like the frog that is slowly warmed up in a pot of water to the boiling point.

What's the guy thinking? You donked $50 into a raked pot of about $73 into 3 players. The 1st one limped in MP which could be any pair, many of which fit that flop & the 3rd calls with some kind of drawing hand & then there's V2 who made it $20 to go. And you, well you had the nerve to donk into 3 players OOP!

I guess he doesn't think what the other player has when he has an over-pair; unless you're known to do this with a draw. Then, OTT when the ace comes, you bet 2x what you bet OTF & he still calls! What does he have? Has to be AK, or a guy on tilt with QQ/KK. You may be losing a lot in this hand, but it's most likely he's tilted.
PAHWM 2/5 Quote
01-28-2018 , 06:31 AM
CHecking the flop is tooooooo risky!!! coupls lags in there too many draws bet flop try to bring it HU on turn.
PAHWM 2/5 Quote
01-28-2018 , 06:50 AM
I think if he had a hand like JJ, he's done hero calling but who knows. Doesn't seem worth sizing down just so that medium pairs might hero. If I were you I would be targeting an ace. All things considered, he got a pretty clean run out, you can have a lot missed draws here.

I would bet about $200. I don't like checking since a lot of his club draws will either give up or they have an ace and will check back. I think anyone who isn't clueless knows you are probably value heavy when you donk and 3 barrel which is why I don't love a shove but that's probably fine too. Maybe you are actually balanced in these spots but that's pretty rare in my experience.

If the turn had been a K instead of an A I think checking has a lot more merit.
PAHWM 2/5 Quote
01-28-2018 , 08:47 AM
At this point, it is useful to think about what he could have.

FD: He isn't going to call anything. Doesn't matter what you do.

TP: Pretty unlikely. He would have had to float a donk with an ace. Most people won't do that in a MW pot. Maybe he goes there with FD combination. He won't call much of anything. Maybe calls a suck bet.

Two Pair: He's loose enough to call with Ax and a pair on the flop. A shove looks too strong, but a solid $250 would be in line with how you've been betting the rest of the hand.

Set: Most of his sets beat you. Clearly he's calling or raising you. You'll want to check.

Straight: Want to check, he's been trapping you.

So your value bets are targeted primarily at 2 pair hands and 44. I think that's too narrow a range to focus on. I'd rather X/C here. He's a LAG and may decide he can push you off the hand with a river bet. If you are going to bet, bet $250 and fold to the raise. I don't care about the odds, he won't be bluff raising the river. You're beat all the time then.
PAHWM 2/5 Quote
01-28-2018 , 08:49 AM
Since he is playing more passively post, I think leading may be better. Earlier in the session, I'd opt to check hoping to induce.

Let's go $190. He called turn, so AcXc in that calling range, and he may even call with QQ/JJ given our line. If he has A8 in his PFR range, then he's not folding now, though I would've expected a turn raise.
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01-28-2018 , 10:02 AM
C/R flop.

As played, stuff river.
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01-28-2018 , 03:26 PM
Ok here I would act based on the villain. Re reading the op he's passive post flop so I don't think he'd bet his missed draws so I would target his weaker made hands and bet like $110


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PAHWM 2/5 Quote
01-28-2018 , 03:31 PM
The hand is played well except that you need to size up flop and especially the turn. You are trying to felt this hand and you don't want your river bet to be disproportionally much larger than your turn bet.

Shove river now. You're repping a polarized range so there's little reason to bet less. Checking is meh since he'll check back most of his range that can't beat a set. Most of his flush draws are Acxc which have a pair.
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01-28-2018 , 06:34 PM
Jamming is fine, it's like ~425 into 380, the FD missed, but maybe it missed for both. His AcXc might even get a hero call.
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01-28-2018 , 10:06 PM
I thought about sizing here and bet $150. Villain thought for a while and finally folded. I think the river sizing was a mistake also. I should have gone with $100 to get crying calls from middle pairs or just shoved to try to get a hero call. If he was bluff catching a shove probably looks more like a possible bluff.
PAHWM 2/5 Quote

      
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