Yeah, I like $80-$100 here.

Are you suggesting we fold a set when we started hand with 125bbs? I'm sorry, but I think if you never fold a set here, you won't even notice the blip in your winrates graph for the times he is actually ahead here.

Flop x/c range:
Hands that are ahead - AA much less QQ
Hands we are ahead - very few AQ, AK as I think he bets those mostly. Weaker Axs, KK, perhaps he peels KJss,hh,dd gssds + bdfd perhaps a few KQ.

So I see most of his dominated range as clearly dominated and quite elastic. We did bet last to act when checked to so there are certainly light peels in his range. I think Garrick had the right idea to keep it under 100 here. That still leaves just barely over a psb.

$90

9 combos of AQ vs 6 combos of AA/QQ

+ 2% change of being set over set + 125bb = not folding

Of those 3 hands I think a flop check is much more likely with AA than either QQ or AQ. A raise pre x/c x/r line would in my view heavily discount his AQ. I don't know what is the right amount but I think it should be discounted some. And his turn c/r range is going to include a few turned Aces up, turned GS+FD combos. Even heavily discounting AQ we aren't folding as we will have the required equity to call off.

But ibuom80k (and op by virtue of his question re: v flop checking range) is making a good point that a turn c/r AI following an EP open and flop check call is not all that consistent with a range that we are "comfortably" ahead of.

If hero bets 100 and v shoves it will be pot sized laying hero 2:1. Hero will need 33% equity for a break even call.

$80 sounds right. I'd like to be able to bluff these brick turns so I want some strong hands as well. Also, I feel like if we get to showdown after checking turn then players are gonna start looking us up on our double barrels (the new cbet) so we gotta either close up shop on double barrels or triple barrel. And I feel like 3barreling llsnl is no bueno...

semi-grunch, seems to be a lot of overanalyzing itt. Both flop and turn are situations where I'm looking to gii, betting about 2/3 throughout. Think its -ev to be considering a fold at any point tbh

What about checking? Don't we have a super narrow double barreling range? Also Isn't V's range not too strong here? Whats his flop x/c range?

Is it too early for results?

I may have misunderstood but I didn't think anyone was suggesting a fold. I thought the disagreement was that if v shipped it was more of a sigh call than a fist pump turbo snap.

I thought that V's range wasn't too strong here as well as having a really polarised turn betting range. I thought checking for deception would set him up to call maybe a river overbet, rather than calling turn and folding almost all rivers that don't bink his flush or don't already have us dominated.

Turn ($136)
4
Villain checks. Hero checks.

River ($136)
6
Villain insta bets $85. Hero???

I think the turn check back is really gross. By getting a bit more out of him on those times when he has nothing, you're losing the chance to get a lot more out of him on the times when he has something. In the aggregate, fast playing is almost always more profitable than trapping.

Great, he set up a decent sized pot for a shove after all. Now shove. The problem is that a river raise is much stronger than a river bet, so we'll probably get called less often than we would have if we'd bet turn.

Still, though, the pot is $306 and we have about $360 back. It's an overbet, but not a gross one, and V's calling range is pretty bet size inelastic. He's not calling any raise with less than TPTK, imo, and he's not folding any 2-pair that would have called a smaller raise when you make a suspicious shove. Only hand that you have to worry about losing because of the sizing is AK, imo, and I seriously doubt he checks that twice anyway.

If he was just trying to buy it, or get thin value, you'll lose him, but you will if you min-raise too. If he has us beat, we were losing anyway, unless he hit a 2-outer with 66 (in which case we really hate not betting turn, but meh).

Raise river to $265-$300.

Longest PAHWM ... EVER!

Results: op quit poker obv

LOL, haven't seen OP around card room much tbh

Haha sorry everyone, busy with work and uni:

Results

River ($136)
6
Villain insta bets $85. Hero raises to $200. Villain folds pretty quickly and shows AT.

Good read.