Quote:
Originally Posted by mikko
We're going to possibly lose value vs other Jacks. Give all diamonds a free card.
Against weaker opponents, I think this is a clear bet for value on the turn.
But against a solid pro, I think we're better off giving the free card. Is he really calling with a bare jack oop? If he is, do we really think his plan is just to check-call turn, check-call river?
If we bet turn, I assume it must be with the intention of bet-folding.
If we bet turn and he calls, what's our plan on the river? If it bricks, do we call or fold to a donk bet? If it bricks and he checks, do we go for thin value from a jack? What about if the fourth flush card comes? Or if the board pairs?
I just don't think we extract a lot of value from the bare jacks in his range. He knows there are a ton of semi-bluffs in our range when we raised the flop. Virtually all of those semi-bluffs just got there. So if we bet turn, our range is weighted towards hands that crush his bare jack and hands that chop with his bare jack.
If we check behind, then we can expect him to bet most rivers with his bare jack. It gives him a free shot at the fourth flush card, but it also controls the pot size and induces a bet from hands that we can beat.