Why is $120 better than $90? Villains behind are passive/scared players. Rather call then bet. Type that check/back TPTK on every runout.

Flop Qd-10s-9d

V1 bet $30
Hero raises to $90
Fold, fold
V1 quickly calls

Turn $250
8d
Qd-10s-9d-8d

V1 checks
Hero?

Check and call any river bet (or bet if checked to)

Terrible card because villain has a fair number of flush draws in his range when he calls flop and it's hard to get value from less then a straight now. With 4 to a straight on board and the flush coming in even a set might fold unless you bet weakly and you don't want to open yourself up to a raise here. I would check and evaluate on river. If river is a blank call any reasonable bet and mostly bet if villain checks, other cards are more complex.

These PAHWMs are always like "Hero makes a speculative move PF, flops a dreamboat cruise, runouts a trainwreck, can we Hero call/Hero fold river under extreme pressure? .. Tune in next week to find out!"

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Heh. So true.

Check turn and call most river bets. I'd bet a river blank if checked to. I think you risk getting blown off the hand if you bet the turn. Pot control became the priority over extracting value. I'm not sure what else worse calls two streets of value now anyway.

I'm going to say we should still fire out a bet here. A check-raise does not seem too likely to me as we are checking back a lot of our range on this turn card. Still bunch of hands we can get value from. Don't want to give free card to potential flush or full on river.

Great insight!!!
Thanks so much.



We're going to possibly lose value vs other Jacks. Give all diamonds a free card.

Against weaker opponents, I think this is a clear bet for value on the turn.

But against a solid pro, I think we're better off giving the free card. Is he really calling with a bare jack oop? If he is, do we really think his plan is just to check-call turn, check-call river?

If we bet turn, I assume it must be with the intention of bet-folding.
If we bet turn and he calls, what's our plan on the river? If it bricks, do we call or fold to a donk bet? If it bricks and he checks, do we go for thin value from a jack? What about if the fourth flush card comes? Or if the board pairs?

I just don't think we extract a lot of value from the bare jacks in his range. He knows there are a ton of semi-bluffs in our range when we raised the flop. Virtually all of those semi-bluffs just got there. So if we bet turn, our range is weighted towards hands that crush his bare jack and hands that chop with his bare jack.

If we check behind, then we can expect him to bet most rivers with his bare jack. It gives him a free shot at the fourth flush card, but it also controls the pot size and induces a bet from hands that we can beat.

He doesn't have many combos of flushes, AK, AJ,A10, 10J, may 56, 76 highly unlikely.

Discount KJ because he is raising flop alot. Discount AK, I think he raises larger pre. Possible, but very unlikely a few other suited Aces.

Get value from all sets, all combo draws, with a J, possible 2 pair (it always tough to fold 2 pair to my image)

how do you think the pro reacts to a $100 bet? Would he see that as weakness and raise with a d in his hand or think you want a call. (At this point, how many diamond combos does he have in his range and how many other combos with a diamond does he have)

I'm assuming you bet the turn and V in position folded since you didn't give description before the flop. So did the pro raise or flat?

Yes, 2 others folded flop

I would've raised much bigger on the flop since he's calling 110ish as often as he's calling 90 and this board is really draw heavy for his range.

Can't imagine he checks the turn with a flush since you're checking back everything but a Jack and lower flushes which are giving him action when he bets. And since he's good, he likely considered this, so I like a 2/3 pot sized value bet to target his sets and overpairs with diamonds.

If board pairs, and he donks. It is easy fold. I assume he would ship most of his flushes on turn. So I would fold.

Can't see him check raising turn as a bluff in this spot. Unless he held AJ, with Ace of diamonds. So I highly doubt bet/folding is very exploitable.

He is never turning a set or 2 pair into a bluff here.

Was hoping to get in discussion of my raise size. Nobody took bait. But I put a bunch of thought into it. You are correct. My sizing should have been much bigger.

Honestly think with 3 players to act. Board absolutely crushing all our ranges. I can get away going very big with my image. $150 ish is what I came up with.

MP still insta shipping all his flush draws, combo draws (just type player he is)

Button may fold some of his flush draws (but that is okay here). Nobody is ever folding 2 pair or a set to me. If they do, they should just stand up and leave.

It is a trade off here between giving him a free card and the risk of getting raised. I'm more worried about getting raised because if hero bets villain can raise with flushes or with JX with a single high diamond. There are enough hands in the second group hero is likely to have to call a raise on the turn but will be drawing dead an annoying chunk of the time.

Plus, if villain only has a JX straight he isn't likely to go broke once the flush draw comes in but he will pay off a good sized bet on brick rivers. So checking here probably won't cost hero much value. The real ugly case here is hero checks and the river pairs the board. Now hero is flying blind and villain may or may not be also.

No idea how he would react. Puts him odd place for sure, but it puts me in very spot if he re-raises.

This last statement is worth digging into a bit, I think. You say this is a pro player who thinks he can outplay people post flop. Crucial question here is: is he correct?

Even with a lag image, I think this turn card should make it easy for a solid player to fold to your bet. He's oop, pretty deep, and he knows that two pair is now little more than a bluff-catcher. If he's check-calling a turn bet, he has to be ready to call a shove on most rivers. It's a terrible board for him to call down that light, and a solid pro ought to know that.

Same goes for his sets and combo draws, unless you bet small enough on the turn to give him close to direct odds.

Basically, if you think he's good enough to fold two pair, and good enough to put you in a tough spot on a lot of rivers, then I think max value comes from checking the scariest-turn-card-in-the-deck. If you're sure he'll call down wider, and also play straightforward on the turn/river, then I think max value comes from betting the turn.

There aren't a ton of flush draws in his UTG opening range, and the ones he could have would be great combo draws right? What is he doing with AKdd, AJdd, or even JTdd on the flop? OOP you would think he'd 3bet these.

But this is preparing for a turn c/r that hasn't happened yet, and there's plenty of value to extract in betting, so do that.

I agree that $90 is too small, but I also think $155 might fold too many hands out. I think $130 is a good number as "$100 on top" gives players a way to rationalize the raise amount without thinking that it's too big.

As for the turn, I think it's close and pretty much agree with QuadJ, but the pebble weighting the scales towards a bet for me is the need to protect against the 4th diamond. I'm guessing his range has plenty of AA, KK,AQ,KQ,QJ,TT hands with diamonds that could get here and would love to just see a free card. I agree that getting raised sucks hard, but If I'm going to check Im probably feeling obliged to bluff catch the river if it pairs or flushes out. Obviously we also get the benefit that he bluffs the river a lot more when we check behind he turn. Think it's really close but I'm likely betting around $175 because I really don't want to have to check behind a worse hand that got there on the river because I couldn't bet thin enough on the turn.

Grunch- honestly at this stack depth I would just muck it in EP, but since this is a PAHWM call (don't think a call is horrible or anything just me)
Moar Grunch- call seems bests unless you have a good aggro dynamic going with V while him C-betting that board is strong, you raisin with two over callers is pretty strong

Well, in game I put way to many Diamond draws in his hand. Knew he would insta ship 3 combos (also was think 4 combos, forgot I blocked 1) of Ad-Jx. Plus was thinking he is capable of bluffing Ax. Maybe other holdings.

Was going to have a real hard time bet/folding. Didn't think I was losing a ton of value by checking back. Would just snap call all rivers except a Q. Value bet if checked too.

Turn: 8d $240

V1 checks
Hero checks

River: $240
Qd-10x-9d-8d-4x

V1 bets $300 after some thought

Hero?

His sizing is rough. Does he have enough bluffs to even call here?

Too late to edit my above post but if everyone thinks that you are Laggro (from reading some posts) I don't mind the flop raise and I think the sizing is fine and now I think the turn is an interesting decision against a reg you have history with...I would check back as it makes our range appear to be 2pr/ str8s + A-high made flushes, honestly I prob check back the river but with your aggro image you are prob good to value bet somewhat thinly IMO

Do you know if V sees you as thinking player? Cause we both know what an over bet on the river is 95% of the time.

I'd have a hard time NOT calling here. (mostly cause I suck) I would think he most likely has a J. The question would be is it the Jd with another diamond.

Yep, rule #1 in llsnl. Over bet pot on rivers with Nutted hands. Honestly can't remember last time someone folded to an overbet.

Put me in suckered club. To my defense, I didn't snap call, would have folded sets and 2 pair. Without a problem. I would have snap folded to anyone else on table (although, I wouldn't be in this spot...I would bet turn with the other droolers)