Check/call is really your only option here. Check any river except a ten and see what villain does. You might be able to fold if villain bombs the river as an ABC player is going to check behind with most hands you beat on the river.

The problem that your facing at this point is that villain probably has a better idea where they stand then you do. If villain has AK or some other hand you beat and you don't fold to this bet they have to know they are beat a lot. If villain does have QQ/QJ know they are ahead and you have a big hand. Only JJ/QT is uncertain.

There were 2 suited QJ combos we were ahead of there is 1 now and we are behind it. (-1)

There were 3 JJ combos that are still ahead.
0.

There was 3 QQ combos now there is 1. (+2).

I get the Jack thing but there are still 16 AK combos we were behind that we now are ahead of. (+16).

That's a net change of 17 combos that we were losing to that we beat now.

In b4 the river A and Johnny Buzz's 1 month self ban.


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yeah it's a great turn card overall for us - our only issue here is being oop; which is not something we could have avoided.

we can only hope

Call.

Gotta call obviously, but the bet-sizing has me a wee bit concerned. Hard to say though. It just feels like a spot where AK starts wanting to go on the smaller side, like $265 maybe, or might just check it back. Plus we thought AK 3bets pre a lot. However, QJ, after bombing the turn, is going to go on the bigger side a lot, I think, like $315-$350. I think villain either has exactly JJ or is getting out of line with a hand like KJs or KTs that still feels obliged to bet (but I know op said those aren't in his flop raising range, so guess not). If AQ made a "please fold" raise on the flop, I think $300 seems likely enough as well (again, op doesn't think this is in V's range though)... So I've got a feeling it's going to be JJ exactly, but definitely don't feel strongly enough about that to be folding a boat. Call and take a river.

Yeah and this is why I love it and hate it. Thanks for counting the combos. Something I need to do more often.

Obv call

Donk blank river 250 and pray he doesn't have a full house so that you can break even after sucking out :P

Lol.

I missed the ninja edit in my original response so: call

I think I agree with donking blank rivers. Gonna keep it at $300 though.

The $250 was mostly a joke about how bad our situation is that we're hoping to break even lol.

I do want to donk though, probably like $400.

Would villain think you could be here with AQ (tptk on flop) or KQ (tp+oesd on flop), so his straight would still be ahead of your now trips? I think so. Or even a stubborn AA or KK? Less likely, but I'm always surprised how light villains assume my holding is. I think he could be value-betting broadway here (or if he somehow showed up with AQ/KQ himself), so I'd c/call the turn.

Would love to him to check behind on river. I'm checking anything but a T.

Like to note our equity vs villain if he has ak Is really 14% because he's bombing the turn on any non pairing card and we can't call.

Also he probably checks back ak a decent % on these turns as hero's contuinng range is weighted heavily towards full houses.

Definitely confident my read to fold was correct. He needs qj,kq, qt, jt, in his range for this to be profitable and a tight abc player should never have those besides qjs after he bombed flop against a biG cbet

Cawl again please


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This is a call. We improved over a large portion of is range and I really can't see folding here.Sure We have the worst full house possible but we now beat AK and AQ. and have all the pair/draw combos drawing really thin.
Really were going to bet $300-$400 into a $1k pot and then fold to a raise? I'm content to call and let him bet the river too. It can be a call, raise, or fold at that point depending on live reads. (Probably a call, AQ could well give off strong reads here.)

Yah I've been on board with what you've been saying and would probably fold flop myself. Not to beat a dead horse, but this goes back to preflop and flop sizing. If we find ourselves in a situation 300 BB's deep HU in a single raised pot where there are insufficient implied odds available when we have a set then we probably made some sizing mistakes along the way.

The $550 we need to make back is just for our massively -EV flop call. When we miss our boat ~6/7 times on the turn we will be facing this $300 bet and need to make back $450 on the river for a 0EV turn call plus the original $550 from the flop for a total of $1000 implied for a 0EV expectation with a massively RIO hand when that kind of money is involved.

In thinking through the hoops we need to jump through I think dumping TT on the flop is best. If breaking even is our best case scenario then I bow out. JJ should be fine to continue with (though still probably not at this sizing).

This villain is never bluff raising, and only reason the flop call I'd even remotely reasonable is because we can extract value from ak when we hit. And I expect this villain to check back river most of the time with that.

Due to combos he should have ak most of the time. We need to try to get value now.

Jbuzz getting his post count up before his one month timeout obv.


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You want to donk the Turn?

Lol no, river. Assuming it's a blank

Obv only play on turn is c/c

Lol thought so...

Johnny I don't know why you're scrutinizing over the standard raise pre and a near psb otf. 10 or 15$ less otf doesn't dramatically change the hand.

On to river

$20 pre -> 25/40 flop dramatically changes the hand.
$20 pre -> 30/40 flop dramatically changes the hand.
$25 pre -> 30/50 flop dramatically changes the hand.
$25 pre -> 35/50 flop dramatically changes the hand.

It should be intuitive that larger sizings reduce implied odds. My previous post shows this as it relates to how difficult it is for us to even break even in a best case scenario.

Doug Polk adjusts his ranges in a tournament facing 2.2x vs 2.0x opens.