Fair, but there it is again too...You're assuming he's thinking of you as 'a good reg,' instead of just 'that random dude over there in seat x.' I just think you're giving him credit for being more of a thinking player than he probably is. Projecting some of your knowledge and understanding of the game on to him.

But then again perhaps I'm not giving him enough credit. I used to give my opponents more credit as well back in the day, until I realized that they are pretty much all just idiots and terrible at poker.

Anyways...

I will admit that in my previous posts I somehow completely brain farted on 89 all together, somehow.

Now that I have remembered that 89 makes a straight on a TJQ board and that's a hand villain could very easily have here that he would not have 3-betted pre, I must say I suddenly can start to see an argument for folding here.

For me though it still comes down to how often villain actually has QQ and AK here. If the answer is not very often at all, then I still feel like a fold here is probably wrong, but the existence of 89 does make folding more valid for sure.

Dude, I've obviously played with him enough times to have a solid read on him and his tendencies. You really think he hasn't got a read on me? Any reg, even the bad ones, have reads on other regs.

He is not flatting 89 after everyone folds to him.

And... I think you should check your ego at the door.

You're giving him way too wide of a range.

OK, well, as I said previously, you didn't mention that he's someone you have a lot of hours logged with, obviously that does change things...But I couldn't have known that until just now when you said it.

As for 89, I assume you mean post as you already said he doesn't have light 3-bets in his game pre.

Yes, I also agree he would be raising 89 OTF here, I didn't say I thought he would just call, I with it, I was commenting on how I had somehow just completely forgot to even include 89 in his range at all...Like I had temporarily forgotten that hand even existed in the game at all.

As for the last part, unless we've played together before, I don't see how you were insulted by it...But anway it's not based on ego actually, it's based on data accumulated over years of showdowns seen and 'strat discussions,' overheard, that when put all together does make a pretty strong argument that almost all of them indeed are pretty idiotic and pretty terrible at poker.

Ego has nothing to do with it really.

Think I'd just 2/3 pot my whole flop bet range (which includes TT basically always) and either call or fold vs a raise, and checking all turns. His flop raise range should be very strong so I think everything plays better that way.



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What decent pretty tight pre reg flats a 6x ep open with 89 after everyone else folds to him? A bad reg sure but no decent reg.

That statement about everyone being idiots feels pretty ego driven but whatever.

^ you said 6x is standard open at this table - you don't think villain can have the four 89s combos 300bb deep on the button here?

or are you just saying he doesn't have 89o combos (which I would agree based on your description)

I don't think he has any 89, suited or not. It's a bad call , even deep, unless other players have come along.

Well you are 300bbs deep though, and he is in position, so there are those two things going for him.

If he doesn't call with 89 here what sc's do you think he will call with? If your answer is, none of them then I guess we are in disagreement once again.

Do you think he's calling with JTs and JQs pre?

Anyway, if he folds 89s pre then that is in favor of my original argument which is, don't be folding TT here on this flop.

Honestly I think it all comes down to what villain will do with AK pre.

If he 3-bets it most of the time I'd call here.

If he flats it most of the time then I'd probably find a fold here.

so his range pre is as narrow as 22+; ATs+, AQo+; and suited broadways or what?
Is he folding QJo/KQo?

I think the bottom of his calling range pre for suited connectors is J10s and QJs. His range would become more elastic if more players had called and he was given better pot odds.

I think this is reasonable except eliminate QJos and maybe ATs.

+1.

Just to be clear are you saying that you believe 89s to be a long run -ev call in his spot there?

I'm not a huge math guy, but I'm pretty sure that would be incorrect.

Or are you saying it's -ev because he can't turn a sufficient profit with it against specifically you in the long run?

In which case I would ask you...

What happened to checking your ego at the door

so this guy seems pretty nitty.

I've never folded a set on the flop and don't think I'm necessarily doing it here, but I could see myself pretty easily check/folding brick turns based on his sizing

I'll quit posting for a month if this guy ever shows up with AQ here.

This was my point about preflop sizing. If $30 is a standard open then 89s is a standard call.

You opened too big preflop and bet too big on the flop and now we are faced with a pot committing raise on the flop.

Jeez, alot of fixation on what would be such a small and near trivial portion of villains range even if he does have it at all.

I never said I thought he would always do this with AQ and KQ, I would heavily discount the combos of those hands, probably only one combo each, maybe even half a combo of each only one combo in total.

I just think it should at least be counted as some tiny portion of villains range and think you guys are wrong in dismissing the possibility so absolutely.

I already responded to your first post about my open and flop bet Johnny.

I don't think 89s is standard to call with preflop when facing an ep open and almost everyone else has folded. Think the gap concept. I'd love to hear an argument as to how calling with 89 pre here is profitable when every hand that raises pre has us dominated.

It's -ev when he's playing fit or fold, which he is. A more creative player who will use position.. float and steal pots may be able to call here profitably.

Dude you are 300 BB's deep. 89s is a standard call vs. any standard open.

It's completely irrelevant, but you are MP as your title suggests and not EP.

But what if villain hits a TJQ flop and we have AK?

Idk man. I pitch it unless at least one other player has called. Maybe I'm a secret nit.

And you really think this guy is a decent player? Starting to not sound like it.

Anyway, I'd still like to know what percent of the time you think this villain will 3-bet QQ and AK pre and what percent of the time he will flat them pre? Especially for AK.

Because the answer to that question is what really decides if this can ever be a fold here or not imo

Then he folds when you 3! flop and/or bomb turn and shove river.

89s is 100% a call preflop.