Quote:
Originally Posted by QuadJ
I don't think another bet here is total spew, but I'm not doing it very often. When villain calls the flop bet, I expect his range is fairly strong, a lot of Ax along with some other hands that didn't want to give up on flop. You can get some of the non-Ax hands to fold. Possibly even a really weak Ax if he raised with AJs or worse but those where bluffs preflop and should be a really small percent of his range. Countering that, the fact that villain's range is so strong here make another bet that much more scary.
A lot of this depends on image at this point. Is your image tight enough and aggressive enough that villain is going to put you on Ax here? If your image is more passive, villain is going to wonder what you are betting here because passive players are check/calling flop or turn a lot with Ax. If your image is loose, villain may be planning a call down bluff catching line if they have KK/QQ themselves.
One of the big reasons I would treat this as a one shot buff is that if your bluffing turn here, you need to be ready to bluff river also. Villain's range has to have a number of decent Ax hands that call flop and turn but might give up on river to constant aggression. That is the high risk/high reward line, and I'm not taking it very often and only with a better feel for villain's range and play.
Like this a lot. I usually don't try this type of line OOP at 2/5 for those reasons, people's ranges are so much stronger than at 5/10. But I sensed weakness from this villain on the flop call and was planning on shoving river if he tank called the turn.
Turns out he should have just flatted the turn, because instead he took 15 sec, shoved over top and blew my bluff range out. He didn't show but later said he turned a set of kings. I actually like his shove since I can easily call with strong Ax.
Didn't want to be results oriented, so wanted to post, thanks for all the replies.
Clearly the biggest mistake was my flat to his 3bet preflop. It's definitely a -EV play. The rest of the line isn't completely awful, but the preflop was. Whether it's a clear fold or clear 4bet pre seems to be up in the air -- I'm going to land on 75% fold, 25% 4bet against this villain.
Thanks all.