I think we can break his hand down into a few categories:

1. The nuts - He's not going anywhere and we're paying him off.
2. Really strong hands (sets, AQ) - He'd call a value bet on the turn and likely call a shove on the river. He also might lead the river if we check the turn and call a shove on the river. Regardless whether we bet the turn or not, this is our best chance of getting it in and winning.
3. Marginally strong hands (non AQ two pair) - I think he's only calling one street, and in some cases might fold to a turn bet, but call a turn check with a river bet.
4. Air - This is quite possibly the largest part of his range. He's not sophisticated enough to check raise the super scare card on the turn, so he's folding if we bet. But, he might do something silly on the river if we check the scare card back. Regardless, the only way we get value from his air is by checking back and hoping he goes nuts.

I hope I didn't miss any possible holdings, but I think when you look at it this way, checking back the turn leaves open more ways to get river value than betting the turn. It just looks to strong to call a check raise on the flop and then bet when the A shows up. It means you had something on the flop and you aren't afraid of the ace.

He could have air/weak hands that are drawing dead (like 63 or 88) or that have outs (like 44 or KT). Do you treat both groups the same?

I think that begs the question of which cards do we think are bad rivers? 4, 5, J? Any others?

In order for any of those to be bad rivers, the V has to have played 44, 55 or KT in a way that is pretty spectacularly bad. All the other bad rivers are those that take his sets and make them quads. If we assume that there's only a small chance that he's on KT, 44 or 55, then we're really only looking at 3 outs that bail him out on the river.

I'm willing to take that chance by checking the turn back. As we've stated, he could have 45, in which case we're hoping for the board to pair. A check back gives us the best chance of making a boat on the river to beat his 45 (as unlikely as that holding is).

A bad river is probably any card that induces him to make a large bet but doesn't give us a full house.

Okay, so lets break this down. If we check, what happens with each river card?

Ace - We love it, we just made quads.
King - JT is now the nuts, but how did he play the hand to get this far? Check-min raising with a backdoor straight draw? Seems highly unlikely. But KQ & AK are now two pair and he might stack off one way or the other.
Queen - Makes him quads if he's got QQ, otherwise it's a card we love.
Jack - KT is now the nuts, but see comments regarding the King.
Ten - KJ is now the nuts, but see above comments as well.
9-6 - All great cards for us. If we were ahead, we're still ahead. If we were losing, that didn't change either. Given that we all think we're way ahead when we spike the set, I think we're happy about all of these hands.
5 - 44 just got there and 4-6 is the nuts. Both unlikely holdings for V, so we're probably happy with that.
4 - 55 just got there and 56 is the nuts. See comments above.
3 - Makes quads if he has 33, otherwise we like it.
2 - Makes quads if he has 22, otherwise we like it.

In other words, unless we know he will only shove the river with the nuts (which we already know isn't true), a big bet on the river probably represents a good hand, but not something that beats our set. I think once we've hit our set, given the way the hand played out, we're probably doubling up or going broke.

I like how you say earlier that air is possibly the largest part of his range, then say that hands like JT/KJ/KT are unlikely. If a king falls on the river and he overbet shoves, I would not be surprised if his range is JT/54. While JT is only a tiny part of his potential air range, the combination of a king on the river and a big bet makes JT possibly the only part of his air range on the flop that would make a big bet on the end.

If he makes a big bet on the river, I am confident with the read that he bets nut and near-nut hands big on the river and doesn't bluff big, so that it becomes a matter of figuring out how likely he is to overplay a set or two pair. So far, it seems like he only shows down super-strong hands when he bets hard. If we don't boat up, I am not happy about facing a big bet on the river from this player (although I may still call).

Please God. Let the river be a Q.

On the only two rivers where we have info on V, he overbet the pot with a missed draw when checked to, and led for half pot with a busted draw when first to act. So to say that an overbet is automatically the nuts, or something better that AAA, is a reach. It's certainly part of his range, but because all of the sets and two pair hands that you can beat are part of his range as well, I find a fold difficult on the river without some other info (physical tells, etc...). That being said, the vast majority of his range is losing to us and unlikely to improve, which is why I like checking it back.

V is a level .5 drooler, who is tilted. Anything other than betting the turn is FPS. If V was a thinking player, then checking the turn has some merit. But he's not. We have a nutted hand. Let's keep shoveling money into the pot.

Bet $60.

V had rivered a straight when he over-bet in hand 1.

I bet here because of my aggressive image. $60 sounds good. I'd prob accidently make it $70-$75 but $60 sounds better. Sounds like on the overall consensus he is spazzing to aggression more than giving up to it so continue. If he tank calls then we can put him on some Qx or poorly played 55-TT and make a small value bet on the river

It seems opinion is quite divided between checking behind turn, and betting somewhere between $40 and $70 for value/to induce spaz.

Now, onto the next part...

V limps UTG, folded to hero in MP with A A who raises to $15, folded to V who calls.
Flop ($34): Q 2 3
V checks, hero bets $20, V tanks then check-raises to $40, hero calls.
Turn ($114): A
V checks, hero checks.
River ($114): 8
V quickly checks, hero bets...


My reasoning for checking behind the turn:

After V min check/raised flop but failed to barrel turn, I believed that he almost never had air. This is because V seemed aware of pot size, and as such would rarely be expecting me to fold on the flop to his bet, even with A-hi. It seemed he had any sort of hand from low-medium pairs to Qx all the way up to 22/33 (I didn't consider QQ in his range).

-On this specific turn, I expected V to be folding his Qx or lower hands to most turn bets.

-Additionally, given his river action in hand 1, if he was attempting to check/raise turn with a set/2P, I would expect him to bomb river, allowing us to raise AI regardless.

-From hand 2 I deduced that there was also a non-zero chance that he might turn a low pair into a bluff on the river, thinking we have a 99-JJ type hand.

-From hand 2, I also believed that if we checked behind a street he would think we're FOS and as such be more likely to pay off a river bet if we check the turn.

-I largely discounted 45 from his range because of how passively he played his draw in hand 1.


Now, on the river it's a simple sizing question.

V has Qx at best after checking turn and river.

I throw in 3 green chips and hope he pays us off with a queen. If he spazz bluff c/r river I don't see why a smaller bet would be much more inducing.

Meh... His quick action OTR makes me believe he's not calling any bets. I almost want to check it back just to see what he has.

I tend to do one of two things here:

Most often I just bet pot and expect it to be called like never.

Sometimes, I pick up 1 chip, and tell the dealer, "all in" and toss the chip out there.

I guess you can always bet small and see if he'll call anything.

In real time I probably get frustrated and pull the "1-chip-all-in" angle.

I'll be amused if it turns out that hero bets, villain tank-shoves, and hero calls expecting to see either 88 or 54.

V has Q9-QK most of the time after the river check, bet something you think gets called. $70 feels right.

$15-18 pre, $20 flop, call the c/r or click back to $60 since he can't fold anything to that. Turn I'm betting an lolsmall $15 since the board is so dry, gives him a chance to spazz for the double c/r, and creates a pretty cool spot to make a big overbet on river which will make no sense. If he calls your $15 turn bet and then you go $175 on river, he's going to think that's a pretty weird line. It's going to be hard to get two streets of 2/3 pot type bets on such a dry board.

I think $45 is the right amount to get looked up by Qx.

This is FPS at it's finest, bet $75

OP, even if you turn the effective nuts, make it consistent with an aggressive image and bet. Although checking the turn gets us value from all his Q's on the river, we are essentially getting value from all his Q's a very high % of the time by betting the turn, with a decent chance of making a good amount on the river. There is merit to checking and betting the turn. I think in this instance, betting the turn is slightly more favourable.

Do you honestly think he'd fold a Q here. And do you think he's check/raising the flop with air that we'd be scared to fold out on the turn? I doubt it.

He's almost always got air and dumb one pair hands now so just "sell your hand" now as Doyel would say. Not much value to be had. I would bet something really small. Like $25. He'll call often with whatever junk he's got and occasionally do something stupid. Maybe even lower. Like $15-20.

Thinking about how much to bet on the river, I decided to put myself in V's shoes as best I could and end up with 45. So here goes:

Pre-Flop - I limp with 45 UTG. This 20-something Indian kid raises me to $15 like he's been doing all night. I call hoping to see what the flop brings.

Flop - I flop open-ended and check to the better with the intention of check-raising him. As expected, he bets $20 and I min-raise him to $40. After all, I only have a draw right now. If he's just cbetting I'll win right here, if not, I can hit and win more.

Turn - Gin! I just made the nuts and he'll never see it coming. He's bet all the way and even called my check-raise, he must have something. I check, hoping he'll bet some more and then we can get it all-in either now or on the river.

River - Brick. Didn't even pair the board. I'm good. If I check he's bound to bet the river and we'll get all-in and I will a big pot!

Everything to me makes some sort of sense up until he checks the river. If you run the same exercise for his other possible hands, they make a lot more sense. So I'm betting for value here thinking that I'm way ahead of his range. Obviously its a pretty gross spot if he check-raises all-in, but I think you're leaving way to much value out there from his two pair hands by just checking back on the river.

I'm doing this from my phone, so the results won't be presented as neatly as previous posts...

Hero bets $115, v tank calls with... KK

I bet so large on the river because I thought he would call with almost any pair given my read that he thought tags were fos after checking turn.

In the end he showed up with the one hand which nobody in the thread, including myself, put in his range.

I really wasn't expecting to see him show up here with kings, and after reading the comments i dont believe anyone else was either. After you raise his limp pre you'd expect to see a reraise out of him if he thinks your raising his limp pre with ATC. I would also think the c/r would be bigger due to the fact your not folding much for 20$ more getting odds to continue with anything. I still feel like a Bet of 60-80$ would have been best otr, but you know your opp better than I do. All in all well played and nice pot.

Villain is just pushing buttons. Probably thought he was getting cute and trapping and just got sooooo unlucky on that turn.