I'd start leaning towards bigger bets now in order to get in stacks by the river. Card is kinda good/bad, in that it's possible someone improved to two pair, but this card will also scare off a lotta hands, and of course the OESD got there (although I think we're going broke against that). Buncha scare cards for the river that will shut things down. I would PSB it here a lot.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Hero got 2 calls on the flop and the board is now more dangerous. Some middle pairs that called flop are done but they are pretty done no matter what. Hero is hoping somebody floated with an ace or now has a draw. Just nope neither has 54 because your probably committed once you make a bet. I like $90 with 2 in the pot.

I figured turn action would be where I'd catch the most heat, but I was hoping at least one person would call for a check/raise with the A turn. During the hand my thought process went like this: The A is a great card in the sense that if either villain was floating with x2 or x3 it would probably be A2 and A3 so they just made two pair. Obviously the A completes the only draw on the board but there are hopefully only 4 combos of that. If I check and the 6 combos of sets, the 4 combos of straights, the 12 combos of A2/A3, and the 1 combo of AQ bet then I can reraise and we're probably getting stacks in. That isn't even counting any Ax hands that decided to float or turned flush draws that would now take a stab or a villain deciding to rep the A and bet out as a bluff. Obviously in this situation I lose value vs the Ax by blowing them out of the hand, assuming they fold to c/r, but I make value when a hand that would've folded to my turn bet decides to bluff. I also felt continuing to bet with then A turn reps extreme strength and I didn't quite know how to feel about that. I'm still unsure about the play.

Flop: Q32 (pot=~$45)

Hero bets 25, V1 thinks for 10 sec and calls, V2 calls.

Turn: Q32A (pot=$120)

Hero checks, V1 thinks a bit and checks, V2 checks.

River: Q32A7 (pot=$120)

Hero?

Obviously, plan didn't go according to plan. What's a good value bet size here?

Lmao why the **** would you check turn? Bigger every street and don't stop betting.

Pre: agree
Flop: agree
Turn: bet 75-95
AP river: 75-95


You're in a single raised pot, every combo of AQ is in their range, not just soooted. It's only 3 total combos, so 2 more than you said, but just for correctness

turn check hurts my head and my heart. bet 70-80 on turn and bet big on river.

Flop: Q32 (pot=~$45)

Hero bets 25, V1 thinks for 10 sec and calls, V2 calls.

Turn: Q32A (pot=$120)

Hero checks, V1 thinks a bit and checks, V2 checks.

River: Q32A7 (pot=$120)

Hero bets 80, V1 tanks for 20 sec and raises to 160, V2 folds, Hero?

Hero shoves although I have no idea stack sizes

V1 started with $500 and there's a 3bet max rule at this casino which basically means if I 3bet to any size that doesn't put him all in then villain only has the options of calling or folding.

All in.

Sorry he had 54s

Checking the turn is criminal. So much lost value.

River bet size is fine. Now shove

Just jam it in. You say he has TAG image. He's not cold-calling 54s from MP vs a 5x open with no other callers as often as he is calling 33/22/77.

Turn has already been hammered down by most everyone else - now on river stuff it in

your hand is undervalued but I think i would make it like 280 just for value but dont see him min raising on the river without AQ or better and he probably would have raised AQ on turn.

If they are playing about 22% of hands preflop that's 260 combos of hands. If their calling range is A5s and all pocket pairs Jacks and below, that's 46 combos of hands that call that we beat.

I think it's too dry a board to lead, I'm checking.

OTT why aren't we betting? To call on that flop their range has to be either a draw or top pair or a hand like A3s that just made two pair. No point in giving a hand Like A5 a free card. AQ is calling a decent sized bet here, and sets are going to get it in. If they have the unlikely 4-5 we are ****ed regardless of what we do on the turn.

On the river it's an easy bet shove. Villain is virtually rarely up with AA here, we effectively have the 2nd nuts. Villain is calling with two pair, set of 2's, 3's, maybe even 7's.

I also really don't like a turn check from villain with a straight and while it's possible he played it that way, it's not likely.

I already posted my reasons for checking, but to put it shortly I believed all the hands you listed that would call a bet or raise would bet if checked to, and possibly call/jam if I reraised. It also added a bluffing range to either villain that would be simply a folding range if I had bet out.

After giving it more thought I think the obvious reason my check is a mistake is because most players will call more often than they will bet. I shouldn't depend on other players to bet their hands for me when I can be the one doing the betting. Pretty much a standard rule in LLSNL is to play straightforward and bet your own hand and my mistake in checking highlights why this should always be the case.

Thanks for the responses all. Reaffirmed in me that turn should be a bet. I think I had a bad case of the MUBS this hand because the board was so dry and the only draw came in on the turn. I think if either villain had actually bet I woulda just called instead of raising out of fear, which is very dumb.

Results:

Any good player is going to see right through this kind of play (checking top set on a dry board and going nuts on further streets or x/r'ing flop).

You lose so much value by not betting flop. A5s isn't likely to float turn if we bet turn on a blank. Any pair is going to float this flop. "Oh he must have AK, I haz pair, call." You'd bet all your bluffs/gutshot wheel draws like A5s/A4s/two overcards, so why all of a sudden are you checking the nuts? You can't rely on people at LLSNL or at any stake to bet for you.

I don't like the turn check.

It's been a few days since I've looked at this thread and I can't recall our stacksize, but unless we have like 10xPSB left, I just open shove whatever we have on the river and hope for a hero call.

ETA: As played facing the river raise, I shove (again, unless we have uber PSBs left).

GcluelessNLnoobG