gotcha.

If you agree the flop is a fold, I think that should move the needle for pre toward fold for you as well. Asking an awful lot of your flops otherwise.

No need to over compilicate this spot. Is V sophisticated enough to flat the flop raise then flat the turn with 66/33 and will he take the same line with AT/JJ/1-pair hands and fold the river are the two questions we should be asking ourselves. Still leaning towards giving up rather than fire 500 getting about even money.

He never has 66/33 based on preflop sizing and my read is he would have raised TT on the flop or turn, so he is capped at one pair hands from AT-AA.

so how do you plan on stacking him with the worse hand?

Is V going to assume we 3-bet JJ+? If so, then AT is pretty much the same as AA given the run out.

While we are waiting for results (did anyone call clock on op btw?) I was looking at the ranges you posted.

You didn't include a preflop range but I would note that if 74s is in your flop raising range your pf defending range is way wide in the neighborhood of 60%.

If you start with a more realistic pf range you will not have such an abundance of bluff raise candidate combos on the flop.

Ok to get you off my back

Results



What is a realistic preflop range when 500 BB's deep, 60x implied and a good read on villain's range? I would think we are going to be super wide here with our hand distribution skewed toward low-medium cards including all of the PP's, SC's, SG+1's and SG+2's, A2s-AQs.

Intuitively, if we don't have a healthy number of bluff raise combos on the flop then we will arrive at the river completely unbalanced towards value hands only.

If A2s is the bottom of your range here, that suggests about 20%ish VPIP in this spot. I don't know what the right number is, but 20% seems way too high. We need a really bad Villain and/or a very wide range from Villain to consider it, I believe.

Bluff combos will present themselves on the flop. We don't need to be packing in extra preflop.

This to me is a backward statement. Why exactly do you feel that you need to play more hands preflop just so you can use them as bluffs later?

Vern you have a way with words.

There has been so much good discussion I feel like I need to follow up

this is obv IMHO

Having balance and bluffs and math and all is cool. But llsnl is largely about timing and using your tells in that manner for your advantage

You stated the the V had sizing tells and he was strong
you stated that the V wasnt really good at "relative hand strength"

These 2 facts combined outweigh everything. I am not going to be able to blast a player like this off his hand -as evidenced

I made my statement b4 seeing the results...and having thought long and hard the past several days about this hand (congrats on checking the river by the way SERIOUSLY) - this hand looks a lot like entitlement tilt justified.

I mean this in no way to call out or be a tool to johnny buzz - I do sht like this too. But lets just take a minute and think about everything

we are oop
we have a v that is obv strong
he doesnt understand relative hand strength
we try and blast him off a hand with minimal equity

this does not make good business sense

I'm not; or perhaps the comment was taken out of context. I was asking what a reasonable preflop calling range would look like given the following criteria: 500 BB's deep, 60x implied odds and a strong read on villain's range.

My guess is we will be very wide preflop in this specific spot, and because we have between 9-11 very strong value combos that can x/r the flop we will have quite a bit more bluff raise combos that can turn very good equity.

Now the last few pages were getting more theoretical in nature and not as specific to this villain, but how we would play our entire range vs. villain's range given the combo counts listed previously.

There are a lot of good nuggets of wisdom in here and I think the entitlement tilt is one that I am probably going through and struggling to deal with.

Even though I have exited the downswing, or more accurately, ended the break even stretch from peak to peak, I am still not in a good place mentally. I'm barely playing 2/5 right now, maybe 20-30% of my sessions, because I am in a prolonged mind**** of a variance **** storm that seems to never want to end.

My bankroll is at an amount where nearly everyone on 2+2 would tell me to be playing 2/5 full time but I know my mental state is just not right because for whatever reason Murphy's Law is in full effect whenever I play it. So I'm cranking out volume at 1/2 and 1/3 just stocking the coffers so that eventually I'll be able to just say "**** it" and play more 2/5. I don't know if that number will be 35k, 40k or what but this prolonged run bad has altered my perceptions, entitlements, confidence etc. greatly.

/rant unrelated to hand in question

Dont worry about tells until you get your math right.

At this stack depth you should NEVER fold the flop. Thats the only thing to learn about this hand besides the fact that people who make the game a dick waving contest get humbled quickly

Post a better PAWHM dude this one sucks

Fold pre
Call flop as played
C/r this turn

/thread

I believe "call flop as played" is only correct if call pre was correct. Here it may be good money after bad. First of all, Hero cannot profitably do a passive chase here (I'm not suggesting you're arguing for that). So, hero will need to find FE on some turns against a sticky Villain with a strong range to justify a flop x/c.

The math will never work without enough FE to make a semi-bluff more +EV than chasing. And I would argue that it may be wrong to think wielding 500bb like a club will scare a rec player sitting on 1100bb.

You don't need $35-$40K to play $2/$5 but I agree you should play the game where you mind is most comfortable.

I will say, if you are going to play $2/$5 right now is the time from what I have been told due to the Big Stax going on. To quote a friend 'games are great.'

I'm def with Squid here. There was some interesting discussion along the way and I think that's what makes these valuable but in the end I go back to my original statements.

While squid eluded to more global issues I'd reiterate an important point within this session...

Edit: oh and Murphy's law not a real thing.

The deeper you get, the more it favors the in position player, which I think you fail to realize that.