You were making a lot of sense until this

Also I'd consider checking behind a LOT of high card rivers if he checks to us, in case he hits a straight and checks to trap us, which would seriously dent his implied odd.

Not shoving river would seem vey mubsy to me. Villans range is flush draws and 2 pair plus. Why wouldn't we shove vs that range? Because of the fear that we got super coolered?

No, because some Villains will have already gotten it in before the river with a lot of the non-draw hands. If we expect 2 pair to only call us down, then yes, shove every river.

300/shove.

Checking back on a non-spade K J or Q is just absurd. Losing immense value by not shoving. Mid set in a huge pot is not the time to be scared of spades w/ a gutshot, such a small part of his range.

I think the short answer is bet the most he's willing to call.

$500 is a pot sized raise on the turn, which would leave you with $310 and a pot of $1370. Will he call $500, but not $800? If shoving the turn was the plan, then should've overbet the pot to like $200 or so on the flop. Shoving the turn looks more like a semibluff than $500, so if I thought he'd call, more likely to shove. It's gross to overplay the hand, but also gross to not stack AK if you could've, but AK finds a fold on a scary river. So minimum bet is enough that pot is so large AK won't fold river, maximum bet is whatever is the most he'll call. But don't choose an amount where you'll be unsure what to do if V shoves a scary river card. Somewhere in there, comes down to the read.

So you think spades is a small part of his range. His range is weighted towards drawing hands with his bet sizing and given reads. I'm assuming he can have two pair plus some of the time but I'd imagine draws ou weigh that quite a bit. That's why I'm interested in getting as much money in the middle as possible and why shoving seems like an on play sense villan has called PSBs with draws.

Thanks a lot for the input everyone.

Hero bets 250, V thinks for 20 seconds and calls.

River J

No flush. V almost instantly shoves.

Hero?

Snap it off.

Yeah, must-call. KQss is the only hand in his range that you need to worry about.

Wow. Have to soul read for KsQs and fold.

I'll say, he's polarized to AA, JJ, KQ or air.

The fact you have a set is fairly meaningless. Your relative value is weak.

If you call here, OK, but you also have to be calling with AK, etc.

In fact, AK is a WAY better hand to have here than TT.

With AK, you'd block AA and KQ.

Willy, I generally like and agree with your posts, but I think you're way off here.

V can have many 2p type hands here. AA should be heavily discounted if not excluded due to PF. V should never ever show up with JJ here. KQ should only show up if its exactly KQss.

V can have AT/AJ/66 quite easily and be "putting you on AK." His percentage of his range that's air here is much higher than his percentage of nutted hands, IMO.

Calling. If he has kqss so be it. That's 1 combo... if he has aces nice hand sir

Also I don't agree ak == TT. Rather have the set all day. People do weird things all the time. He might decide aj is the best hand and jam putting hero on an AK that's not folding.

We block AT quite a bit, and either way, I don't think AT or AJ shove river.

66 isn't impossible, but the bet small/call line on flop and turn followed by the river shove doesn't really make any sense.

I don't see 1/3 villains take this line without a monster. I also don't see them make 200BB bluffs on rivers. I don't see a read suggesting V hugely over values or is a maniac, either.

I know it's a bit of a soul read and it doesn't take a huge number of worse combos to make it a call. And there was a time when I would have called in this spot too, but I started to realize how much it hurt my win rate.

snap. V doesn't have AA/KQ/JJ if your description is good. A6/A5 I am guessing.

I mean... if you're calling, well OK then - but please never, ever "snap" in this spot.

It's a 200BB bet. You do not "snap" 200BB bets. You take some time.

Potting the turn would leave Hero with $310 to win $1680 when V shoves,
instead it's $560 to win $1430. Can V play AJ,66 or AT this way? Is he sick enough to play missed spades this way? Is he good enough to realize how
unlikely it is that Hero is folding. Poor bet sizing has created a tough spot, because this shove looks a lot like KsQs, and we're now at risk of an expensive mistake. The raise to $250 offered him implied odds of 205:1225, which made his call not a mistake with the nut flush draw if we're paying him off.

To call we've got to be good more than 28% of the time. If I can't find a hand other than KsQs that I believe V would likely play this way, then that's an awfully large spazz assumption. I don't see how it's an easy decision.

Snap calling the river, AJ easily in his range and all sorts of worse hands that a rec thinks is the nuts ie Two pairs or lower sets and spazzes with missed flush draws. I am only CONSIDERING folding spade rivers


As for Preflop, I love the sizing, I want as many calls as possible with the likely best hand. Trying to isolate or win the pot outright is focusing on winning the hand, and not winning the most money

Lol to snap calling. That is a super weird line and villains range just became air or the nuts. If you snap call a 200 bb river shove with the 4th nuts you best have a supreme read. As played when a villains line doesn't make sense I am more likely to call. It's just really sick that a calling station just got Agro on the river. All that said I think I am calling river. People love spazzing in Live low stakes NL.

Wow, super gross spot.

Super odd line for AA and JJ. So he has 66 or KQSS here alot,

I can't find a fold. Just don't see him calling with JJ. Don't see him limp calling AA. Then leading out.

With 66. I can see him taking this line.

If it is 1 thing I have learned recently. Is alot of guys are never folding a flush draw. They are willing to pay any price.

Expect to lose alot. But hopefully he has enough 66 and Spazz in his range.

Puke, call.

Think I may have jammed turn. Highly doubt he would fold flush draw, or 2 pair.

No real reason to over-jam the turn. Sure you're denying some equity to FD's but in reality you still want them to call for value when you raise to ~$300.

We can't necessarily discount AA, but we can discount JJ, so we're only behind KQss and AA really. This is just not a spot you can fold a set, this isn't a spot were V should never be perceived to be bluffing; there's definitely bluffs in his range here. That being said, he's equally likely to Vbet 66/AJ -- it's a call.

It's actually a trivially small spazz assumption. We realistically only lose to exactly KsQs - 1 measly hand combination. And since we only need 28% to call, we only need him to "spazz" with roughly .4 combos. Two-fifths of one single hand combination! You'd need insanely strong reads on a player, likely in very specific situations, to get below such a low combinatoric threshold.

An insanely loose villain who calls ATC pre, habitually donk bets, refuses to fold draws, and vastly overvalues weak made hands (even if mostly passive) is probably NOT that player type. When said villain donk/calls both the flop and turn and is now staring at a massive pot on the river with literally almost every single combo of busted flush draw thats possible as well as a bunch of medium-strong made hands he doesn't want to fold but doesn't know what to do with, and donk shoves with only ~half-pot left? I think we can pretty safely assign him at least 2/5 a combo of spazz with something that is not the nuts.

I appreciate your comments. You make a convincing case and I don't necessarily disagree with anything you've said here. But many Villains would never river bluff 200bb and the made hand combos we beat are weirdly played except for kinda maybe AJ. Also, we can't completely discount that this guy could have the other KQ combos, and of course, weird lines can always be AA. For me, with the info given, we have a tough decision that was completely avoidable.

As I noted before, I hate the turn raise sizing. If OP chose the turn raise sizing because this was part of his plan and he's calling because a senseless jam was anticipated, well, wp, but we weren't given that read.

Bottom line, turn sizing should've been chosen with a river plan in mind, if OP did that, great.

I've lost track of the pot size / stack size as well as the board (OP should put all this up in the street by street action), but I'm guessing there is more than enough good (but worse) hands in Villains range (coupled with at least some last ditch attempt at bluffing a busted draw) to call here.

GcluelessNLnoobG

This ainec

People suck at poker. He'll donk call 2 streets with whatever. Gets to the river, doesn't want you to check back your AK (because that's what he might do) and donk shoves his 2 pear. See this all the time.