I'd probably either open jam this flop or bet an amount where I can jam any turn, both of which do pretty good at maximizing FE while having a hand with decent hand equity.

ETA: On the turn, we only have a ~PSB left. I think checking the turn makes a lotta sense with a lot bigger stacks behind, but with a ~PSB left when we're committed not nearly as much. So I probably just jam. If we think our opponent we take our check as weakness and put money in as a bluff or whatever, then I don't hate it.

ETA#2: I wouldn't hate our flop sizing if we weren't committed and had huge stacks behind; $70 can simply be seen as a "big bet" (even though it's less than 1/2 PSB) and I'm not convinced there's all that much difference in opponent's calling range between that and like $110 or whatever (they are either calling a "big bet" or they ain't). So if we're looking to get the job done for as cheap as possible with huge stacks behind, I wouldn't hate it. Here, thanks to preflop we have trivial stacks behind and have flopped huge and should simply be going after the pot ASAP, imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Preflop play: Good quality play, I like you logic and sizing. Could go bigger, but not an absolute must and I don't see it as an error

Flop Play: I do not like this sizing as a C-Bet lead. I'd probably go $100-$125 OR check with the intentions of check-Jamming any bet by your opponents. Check jamming would maximize fold equity, while betting larger will build the pot when you hit and should probably get folds from hands that are set mining. Betting 40ish percent pot lots of hands will stick around that may get sticky on later streets. $70 bet, I'm calling with TT/JJ in position on this board with only 1 over and some Gutshot backdoor draws, where as I am more likely to fold these hands if I am one of the two players in later position facing a $100-$125 bet.

V1 can have all the sets, v2 can have bottom and middle sets on this board. other than sets, both players should be capped at 1 pair hands

KTss/K9ss is a possible hand you could be up against as well from either player.

Bet turn for value, no free cards. This card hits a 3b range harder than a caller. If he folds QX so be it; probably not folding his draws.

This card is so good for our range and we have some key spades that mean that our opponent either has us beat or is gonna fold on the turn. Now sure, we may give them a free card to hit a gutshot or two pair or set, but that free card could also give us a flush and mean that we get to stack them on the river.

I'm all for betting AK here to not give a free card to the multitude of flush draws that would be possible against that hand.

River($298): Q83AQ H should???

Agree with this. Especially if you plan to move up. Figure out how your going to balance and protect portions of your range with Flop and Turn sizing.

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Turn i just shove. You cant bet 2/3 with 100 behind for river play. Checking is ok too. I just prefer making it a 2 street game by betting bigger otf and jamming a lot of turns. Im probably even jamming KK. If they only call off two pair +, we have an insanely +ev jam and they have to fold out so much equity with draws/weak hands they check ott back with.

Ap river check

check/soul read.

Whether to call river or not depends a bit on the opponent and the sizing. Not a great spot to be in, but I don't think this necessarily means that the turn decision was wrong.

Check/evaluate as played.

H settled on a check, and the V thinks for a bit, shuffles around some chips and bets $200. H should???

What do you range him on? What hands can you beat that he's betting and what hands are betting for value?

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Preflop 3b seems fine as long as it’s not every time. On the flop I really don’t like the sizing. Any cbet from me here would be $115-125. Not saying to cbet every time, but never making it $65 here.

On turn, firing AI.

The person who quoted that the bet should be 1/3 pot size or 2/3 pot size is spot on

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IMO his value range is probably something like:
any AQ, KQ, sometimes QJs, and that's pretty much it, since I believe he would bet the turn with sets ('cause the board was kinda wet). I also think he might value bet AK in some cases.

The thing is, the line that you picked looks a bit weak, and he might attack it with some bluffs such as missed draws, or even sometimes turning a 99-JJ into a one.

You have a bluff catcher, and with the given odds I'd probably call it.

Missed spades or missed JT/T9 are about the only hands you can beat imo and your hand contains a lot of the cards he'd bluff river with.

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missed the turn action but we should have been all in there so w/e

honestly this hand is a complete eyesore because the sizing on the flop killed your ev, had you bet less on the flop it'd be interesting on the river

as played, no one bluffs here, we are blocking all his bluffing hands and all his hands that you beat want to check it back for showdown value, c/f>shove>c/c imo

AJ is probably one of the worst hands to hero call with here. We block a bunch of spade draws and straight draws he might have floated the flop with. He has a bunch of queens in his range.

I like folding. I'd rather call with A7 than this hand.

Really depends on the V range and if you’ve seen any bluffs.

There are maybe 3 combos of FD that missed; turning JJ into a bluff? Latter probably unlikely and is blocked.

I’d eliminate sets given the turn action; we block AQ/QJ combos. 8 combos of KQ, and a couple of QTs.

Hero line super weak, nonetheless there seem to be more combos ahead than behind. FWIW, I don’t see any point in betting river. Folding worse, called by better. There aren’t any weaker aces calling the flop due to the As blocker.

As played, I’d fold.

H ended up folding here. Agree that this is one of the worst hands to call on the river with and I struggle to see us getting bluffed here except in super rare occasions.

My takeaways from everyones analysis is that: preflop more people preferred the 3bet, I should have bet around $100+ on the flop, on the turn there is less consensus but I think I still prefer a check.

The only hand villain should have on river that beats hero is kq, and other qx hands he has. But villain should not checkback any other value hands on the turn that beat aj. Of course, villain may be playing the turn incorrectly but once we make it to river with this hand folding does not make much sense from a theory standpoint (just like checking the turn is fairly bad)

I think the turn is the biggest error of the hand personally. I don't understand why'd you'd check, unless you think your opponent is going to bluff shove at all. You almost certainly went from behind to ahead, and even if you aren't ahead you're not folding to a bet from villain.

I'm shoving this turn like 85% of the time, betting like 75-80% of my stack the other 15% (if I think v will call a decent amount but not an all in). You might be ahead preflop, almost certainly behind on the flop when called, finally ahead on turn...let's get $$$$$$ in the pot



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Three of the four hands are gutshots without only 3 clean outs to a straight.

Although there have been good arguments made for betting vs. checking, people who are advocating betting aren't doing it because they're afraid of getting rivered.