I think you can make a case for raising the turn yourself.

It's likely that sb has a hand that he can't call a bet with but would like to see a river, hence the lead. The other villain would then be faced a w/ gii or fold spot. I think we take the pot down a lot ott and when we do get looked up we either have the best hand(unlikely) or we have a bunch of outs.

I think a gutter, a pair, and the 2nd nut flush draw is way to strong of a hand to not be the aggressor. Also I think it helps us being the one who put that last bet in heading to the river the times we do get flatted by the sb.

I disagree somewhat, what happens when the river bricks and he has like 89 or A9. 9T is possible, even the same hand QJ or any hand that we're ahead of?

I guess what I'm saying is if we don't improve otr or if we make 2 pair are we check/folding for less than $50? He could have like the AJx. What if a J falls and we make trips? Do we put him on straights+ and check/fold?

I would absolutely hate to get pushed off the winner for $49 river shove.

Equally as bad and probably more likely, is him folding when we hit. Or maybe he makes 3 pair. We both miss FD's and our pair is good but we missed getting the last $50 in ott.

To me there is much more benefit in jamming the turn. Maybe he's playing w/ his case money and needs the last $50 for gas and tolls to get home, and decides to fold better. You just never know

Back door draws?

OK... let's really thing about this.

15/47 to pick up a draw for the turn and 14/46 to hit the draw on the river. That a 9% chance to hit the best possible draw by the river. We're really still wanting to continue in a hand 4 ways to see our backdoor draws come in?

I don't mind floating a flop heads up, or perhaps 3 ways with known passive opponents. But we're 4 ways on the flop -- floating to hit a back door draw is just plain bad.

Are you being intentionally obtuse? We already have a made hand. We aren't floating, because that means calling a street to make a play later. We are peeling with SDV. Also 9% is better than 2 extra outs. Definitely not negligible.

#1 Yes. Not only am I saying we may have to fold future streets, I'm saying because of position we're never really going to know how much we want to continue.

#2 Methinks you have forgotten what RIO means. Since we're the one with the back door draw, the most likely thing that will happen is we'll improve enough to continue, but at the same time, one of our opponents improves to take the lead (even if only in total equity share).

#3 I'm not sure what the hell is going on with LLSNL regs these days... What's up with the constant passive line advice? We're OOP and about to see the turn 4 ways with TPMK and back door draws? How the hell am I the only one who sees that this is a recipe for disaster? We're not the only one drawing here...

I mean seriously folks... TPMK, out of position. This is Poker-101. Thinking this is a good spot to play passively is why 1/2NL live players cannot beat 1/2NL online.

I'm not being obtuse... I'm essentially saying that being OOP is our major problem here. So what if we have a vulnerable made hand. We're still 4 ways.

Talking about backdoor draws in a 4 way pot is just... fishy.

ETA: and its only 9% if we consider only our best possible draw case. If we assume 12 outs, then we're down to 6%. So fine, we're between 6% and 9% extra equity to hit our backdoor draw. But we're not the only one drawing here...

(In case its not clear... I'm only talking about the flop still.)

This is a tremendously frequently occurring spot. Those who don't think this is interesting are either poker geniuses or have huge leaks in their game (inb4... "you have huge leaks in your game"... LOL)

This spot happens like every single hour, IMO.

You do realize that one of the "passive fish" you're deriding was a well known winning reg at 2/4NL OL pre-BF, yes? As for whether this would be a good line in 1/2NL OL, that's irrelevant. That's not what we're playing. Our V's are rarely going to push us off our equity because they sense weakness in LLSNL.

Equity is equity. It doesn't matter where it comes from, only if we can realize it.

i'm ready for results

Indeed... Only if we can realize it.

I don't understand what you're trying to say with the bolded part...

My point isn't that we're afraid to be buffed here... That is never a problem in this spot.

It means that when we are ahead of their range, but not so far ahead that we want to play for stacks, and we don't fear draws, calling is often optimum. We don't need to be agressive for aggression's sake to keep from getting played back at. We can instead be aggressive when we are behind their range or so far ahead of it that we want to play a bigger pot.

If we are never folding the river for $49, we may as well just shove the turn. There's no advantage to waiting for the river to get the money in. There's not much advantage to getting it in on the turn, but if he even has air 1% of the time, or if he folds when the flush comes in even 1% of the time, we may as well get it in on the turn.

What are we assigning V?

We call ott, if a spade hits otr, we lead and no matter how sick V gets he's not folding 2pair or a straight.

We call ott, if we hit the gutshot, we lead and tie some of the time, maybe V makes a crying call with a set or 2pair.

What are we doing if a J hits otr?

(sorry for not posting earlier, my house had no heat for 19 hours and that sort of became the priority)

results....

HERO... shoves over raise.

My thinking at the time was that maybe I had a small amount of fold equity, based on the turn bluff I witnessed him make earlier. Maybe like 20%.

I thought maybe 5% I actually had the best hand (vs say A 9 or K 9).

And the other 75%, I would have to hit one of my 12-14 outs. (spades, tens, jacks sometimes)
.75*.28 = .21 % winning when I hit.
5% I already have the best hand (he has outs though)
20% he folds his bluff....

I'm not great in doing math at the table, but it seemed somewhere around the 50% mark, and I finally thought "meh, it's only 60BB" and told the dealer I was all in.

Villain sighs, says "well, I have the current nuts so I call", flips over QTo.

River 3, nice hand sir.

for reasons already mentioned, flat the turn raise. see why raising flop is better? if you had raised flop, villain would've folded or put his money is bad. there are just too many bad cards for your hand on the turn.

Now we all get to be results oriented....

So are we always doubling up UTG here or is there some way we can reasonably get away from our hand before its too late?

(^ this is an honest question. I still believe this is a pretty important spot and playing it well is more important then getting it AIPF with QQ+.)

I've actually given this a bunch of thought. I think the best play is making the EV neutral call of the turn raise and check-evaluating bricks. He's going to shove 49 into 172, and we'll have second pair. I would have been able to find a fold at that point with this villain. Obv. we call if a spade or ten hits, and doing a lot of mental work if a jack hit (paying off KJ/J9/44, beating JT/J8s?). I guess Qs are mandatory calls also at those pot odds.

If we play this way, we save the last $49.

It's like I asked earlier...what river card hits that we're folding getting 3.5:1 vs this villain? We like the cards from half the deck (literally!) vs his range. Yeah, so we ran into the top of his range here, but based on the information we have up to this point I don't think it's the wrong play.

yeah, I think we are always doubling UTG up

I'm going to give a little bit of merit to just calling the turn, and folding UI river, because good players ITT like it. But it's not the optimal play.

If villain is playing optimally, he should have hands you beat in his turn raising/calling range. If he doesn't, he's not playing optimally. Poker is a high variance game and you have beaten him over the long term if he doesn't have any hands that you beat, just not on this particular hand.

What I'm saying is that the mathematically correct play is gii on the turn and it's a direct profit, if only a slight one with high variance.

But the great thing about poker is that you can beat the math by playing perfectly. If you were to just call and folded the river, you actually beat him out of some of the money you didn't pay off and win the hand. I'm simply not that good, so I'm going to take the profit directly off the table, even if it's a small profit with high variance.

If you just call the turn and fold UI, you better be right because it's a much bigger equity suck than not binking.

The only thing I would consider a bad beat is if villain got up and left next hand.

My thoughts exactly. And he better show you his cards so you know you were right.

OK so here's kind of what I'm getting at.

There's basically only two kinds of hands V can have in this instance.

A) A good made hand
B) A drawing hand.

I tend to think he's way more likely to have a made hand based on his line.

I am also making a couple of assumptions.
1. He's never folding his made hands on turn or river no matter what.
2. He's frequently not betting his draws when they miss.

OP says he's seen him bluff raise a turn once. That doesn't mean he's doing it every time. And it also doesn't mean he's going to continue his bluff on the river.

By just calling his raise, a few things can happen.
1. I hit my draw vs. his made hand and we get it in.
2. I hit my draw vs. his draw and usually win, although occasionally lose/chop.
3. I miss my draw vs. his made hand and fold. Saving $50.
4. I miss my draw vs. his missed draw and showdown a likely winner. Costing myself the $50 from shoving turn.

My read is that it's far more likely that we're in situation A, and with my two assumptions, options 1 and 3 are superior to shoving and only having draws to win it all. Remember, this guy c/c, c/r multiway. That's not really a good spot to be bluffing. This is one instance where you can count on your implied odds to chase a draw that will almost always get paid off and neatly get out of the way when you miss. This all falls apart if my two assumptions above are incorrect. In my experience with these types of players they hold true in these situations.


Or I could be way off.

I like that analysis, spike. But the more I look at the hand, the more convinced I am that we're so close to neutral EV that we're just splitting hairs. If stacks are deeper, then we can change the discussion drastically.

eh, he may very well have no draws in his turn range but I'm still getting it in and I know this might be stupid but it makes the game a whole lot better when you loosen things up

if I was at the table and saw this hand go down where the BB folded for 49 on the river, I'd probably get up and leave because you pay too much rake at this level to not get the chips in

No way I'd leave that table. Ever.