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30s Asian Villain had only played one orbit. I'd mostly seen him play tight hadn't seen him raise or make it to any showdowns. The table had been mostly tight-foldy. I had mostly played tight but stole one or two pots raising PF then continuation betting.

Villain has $255. I cover him. He straddles to 10 PF. I open red QQ in middle position to $25 all fold he tells me has to call.

Flop ($50)
J98 2 clubs. one diamond.

I bet $40 into $50 he instantly raises to $230.


Can we fold getting 190:510 (37.5%) overpair and backdoor straight draw? (I figured he could have combos of J9, 98, 99, 88, jj, and discounted the QT possibility-but I have seen stranger at this table). TT is also possible but I would think he's not expecting me to fold an overpair.

We're drawing thin against sets (20%). Two pairs (35-38%) seems to be the only made hand that we have correct odds to call against.
I guess he could have a flush draw but that seemed like a fairly aggressive move at this table and I don't think I've seen any all in shoves with it. Straight is also possible but I'm not sure villains are calling PF with T7.

Any thing I'm missing here?

Well I had a big post but then I pressed backspace on my laptop on accident and lost it all =/ so I'll sum it up.

- IME older villains on a WET board will be overbetting/raising huge amounts when they are holding a strong (BUT VULNERABLE) hand ie - 2 pair/set/AA/KK (AA/KK unlikely with preflop action) with maybe a few pair+oe put in there.
-I'm putting his range on 88-TT,J8-JTsuited and off pretty specifically, with a few other rando hands thrown in.
-I am HIGHLY doubting he is playing QT like this, although possible.

He's only played 1 round, we don't know if he's tight really.

We're ahead of a ton of his range which also consists of pair+straight draws, naked flush draws, straight + flush draws, etc...

Also for the times he has a set we still have 6 outs.

Last, I'm probably never folding an overpair raised to 8.3bb in a straddled pot when I have less than 100bb.

Yeah my experience was more along the lines of thinking he had that vulnerable hand where we weren't too far ahead. In the middle of the hand I really discounted the rest of the range where he might merely be drawing to beat us.

I normally wouldn't fold an overpair with SPR of 5, but the flop seemed wet enough where it could be an exception to the standard advice and I'm not used to villains playing draws so aggressively. (I guess that would make his move even more effective.)

If call here pretty comfortably. Without doing the math I'd be surprised if we weren't 50% vs his range. I'd label him gambly before tight bc of the straddle.

Yeah I just ran it with Ax flush draws two pairs, sets, and straights and was surprised but we're still right around or over 50%. Time to work on my ranging calculations

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Raise more pf, as played it's pretty close. I think we have to call here since the pot is so big and he could have a number of draws and we have some redraws.

Are you raising pf to 30? As the opener at this tight table I figured 25 would get me heads up and 30 might cause a fold.

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I always 4xbb first in.

I often do 5x in regular pots but struggle with the size on straddle pots. Do you do 4x+1 per limper in these spots?

Yep, or 4x the straddle +1 per caller.

This is a puke fold.

Essentially, we are up against a range of hands that either:

A) has us crushed (sets and KK)

or

B) has great equity against us (pair + FD +SD)

add the two ranges together and our equity is around 40%

we are getting about 1.78:1 on a call meaning we need to have about 36% equity in order to make the call...

So from the math perspective, we do have the equity to make the call, but it is definitely a crying call.

However, if we remove TT from V's c/r range here then our equity does drop to 36% which makes this call breakeven or 0EV.

So, lets go back to your player description to get some more guidance

yuck, we only saw him play one orbit so that isn't as useful as I'd like. BUt looking back at the OP I see this

Okay, this does sorta change things. When players straddle they tend to get more emotionally involved and invested in a hand. They think of the hand as "their" hand as if they are entitled to win the pot. Also, you only raised $25 into a straddled pot so his calling range is going to be pretty wide. So I guess we can put TT back in his range and if we do that and add more 2p combos then our equity actually increases to 45%

So because this was a straddle, I think this is a crying call.

Lastly, as played, whenever there is a straddled pot and we hold a value hand just bump it 4x. Players will be more inclined to think you are stealing. Obviously would be nice if more dead money was in the pot, but it is what it is.

awesome post, dgi !!

also.. ask for table change two orbits ago!

Thanks for all the solid analysis. Bet sizing is one of my bigger leaks as I continue to transition into no limit. Good to see how you all handle these spots.

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So funny some of these replies. I wouldn't count out tptk and kj. You pretty much have no info on this guy. You're assuming he's tight on a small sample. I call all day, take not for future references if I'm wrong

I would have raised a lot more preflop. $25 is good in the sense that it puts in 10% of stacks and thus we can totally commit postflop with an overpair, but it also gives Villain decent implied odds of 17:1 to see a flop and stack us. I probably would have gone to at least $35 (which isn't too crazy out-of-line at my table vs a $6 straddle, so against a $10 straddle I think it's fine, especially since it's basically just 3x + blinds).

On the flop, the SPR is 4.5 and we have an overpair it a straddled pot where we were effectively playing 25bbs and board is super drawy. We are 100% committed on the flop, I would pot the flop so I can shove the turn (and I am snap calling the shove).

GcluelessNLnoobG