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Overpair vs. Check raise on wet board Overpair vs. Check raise on wet board

02-05-2014 , 04:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bwslim69
People saying check turn are so results oriented that it is beyond belief. There are spots where checking turn with an OP MAY make sense this is not one of them IMO.
I strongly disagree. This deep with an SPR of around 8 on the flop (making it very unlikely that we can bet-bet-bet and stack off profitably), against a good tricky aggressive opponent that can put us in tough spots, there is NO WAY we should be going for 3 streets of value on a T97 board imo. Turn is an easy check for me. I really really hate that turn bet vs this opponent. If we check that turn we will still get healthy value on the river when aggressive villain, who likes to attack weakness, predictably value bets worse or bluffs--thus we get the two streets of value this hand deserves vs a good thinking player.
Overpair vs. Check raise on wet board Quote
02-05-2014 , 05:29 PM
Check flop and bet turn/river for value next time. Also raise less preflop. If you had 100-150bb effective the raise is fine but bloating the pot with a marginal big pair this deep is usually a bad idea. Most of the time you just end up with a pair of jacks and you aren't winning many 600bb pots with a pair of jacks. I would like the $25 raise more with some suited connectors or an AQs/AKs type hand this deep
Overpair vs. Check raise on wet board Quote
02-05-2014 , 06:21 PM
Assuming the $25 pre-flop raise is fine, how does a $40 flop bet, turn check and $80 river bet look value wise? As wj94 said, I don't want to play for stacks with the 4th highest overpair. Bet line above would have a final pot of $310 if called on river. That seems like plenty of "value" for a pair of Jacks against a competent winning LAG on this board.
Overpair vs. Check raise on wet board Quote
02-06-2014 , 11:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94
Check flop and bet turn/river for value next time. Also raise less preflop. If you had 100-150bb effective the raise is fine but bloating the pot with a marginal big pair this deep is usually a bad idea. Most of the time you just end up with a pair of jacks and you aren't winning many 600bb pots with a pair of jacks. I would like the $25 raise more with some suited connectors or an AQs/AKs type hand this deep
I like this line alot, but not in this situation. There are way to many turn cards that hurt our action and equity. I think you 100% need to bet this flop. We need him to fold his overcards. There are to many hands that we are ahead of that will fold to a bet, but could catch up on the turn.

There is 70$ in pot and I am more than happy to take it down on the flop.
Overpair vs. Check raise on wet board Quote
02-06-2014 , 01:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ILOVEPOKER929
I strongly disagree. This deep with an SPR of around 8 on the flop (making it very unlikely that we can bet-bet-bet and stack off profitably), against a good tricky aggressive opponent that can put us in tough spots, there is NO WAY we should be going for 3 streets of value on a T97 board imo. Turn is an easy check for me. I really really hate that turn bet vs this opponent. If we check that turn we will still get healthy value on the river when aggressive villain, who likes to attack weakness, predictably value bets worse or bluffs--thus we get the two streets of value this hand deserves vs a good thinking player.
This is not good thinking IMO. A lot of his flop and turn calling range is draws. Draws don't pay off rivers if they miss. A lot of 78, 98, A8, type draws in his hand range that will continue to call turn. We aren't betting turn to set up 3 streets of value. We are betting to turn to make sure we get 2 streets of value. If his range is bluff heavy it is even more reason to bet turn.

If he posted this hand saying he checked turn. River was 6 and villain fired everyone would be screaming that turn check is terrible.

I assume if you are checking turn with JJ you are doing the same with AA?
Overpair vs. Check raise on wet board Quote
02-06-2014 , 06:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bwslim69
This is not good thinking IMO. A lot of his flop and turn calling range is draws. Draws don't pay off rivers if they miss.
Yes they do, when we simulate missed overcards and we're against a "a loose aggressive opponent willing to bluff and value bet strong vs perceived weakness".

Quote:
Originally Posted by bwslim69
We aren't betting turn to set up 3 streets of value. We are betting to turn to make sure we get 2 streets of value. If his range is bluff heavy it is even more reason to bet turn.
As indicated above, we'll get our 2 streets of value vs this guy. We don't have to worry about that. If we check the turn he HAS to bluff a blank river given how many Ace highs are in our range. No "winning player" will pass up that opportunity if they can't beat ace high.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bwslim69
If his range is bluff heavy it is even more reason to bet turn.
Of course, but we don't know that. If we bet the turn in this spot vs an aggressive winning player and get forced to a stack decision with one pair, in an 8 spr situation, we are quite literally in a nightmare situation that is extremely difficult to negotiate well, because an aggressive winning player will presumably have a bluff frequency that is close to optimal. We don't need to try to navigate the impossible. There's another way to get 2 streets of value.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bwslim69
If he posted this hand saying he checked turn. River was 6 and villain fired everyone would be screaming that turn check is terrible.
And that WOULD BE results oriented thinking.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bwslim69
I assume if you are checking turn with JJ you are doing the same with AA?
Your assumption is correct. Against this guy I'm not betting any hand on the turn that doesn't know what to do if raised. No need to, he will reliably bet the river after we check and "turn our hand face up" to AK/AQ/AJ/KQ.

Now everything changes if I believe I can reliably get 3 streets of value vs this guy, i.e. profitably get stacks in. In that case I would probably bet the turn EVEN IF I didn't know what to do when raised. I'm greedy, I want to get my 3 streets of value and I'm willing to face the downside of sometimes being in tough spots to get it, but against a winning player the assumption is we can't go for 3 streets of fat value and stack off profitably at an spr of 8, so there's no need to bet the turn and and risk putting our self in a tough situation. The reward is not worth it.
Overpair vs. Check raise on wet board Quote

      
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