Quote:
Originally Posted by bwslim69
This is not good thinking IMO. A lot of his flop and turn calling range is draws. Draws don't pay off rivers if they miss.
Yes they do, when we simulate missed overcards and we're against a "a loose aggressive opponent willing to bluff and value bet strong vs perceived weakness".
Quote:
Originally Posted by bwslim69
We aren't betting turn to set up 3 streets of value. We are betting to turn to make sure we get 2 streets of value. If his range is bluff heavy it is even more reason to bet turn.
As indicated above, we'll get our 2 streets of value vs this guy. We don't have to worry about that. If we check the turn he HAS to bluff a blank river given how many Ace highs are in our range. No "winning player" will pass up that opportunity if they can't beat ace high.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bwslim69
If his range is bluff heavy it is even more reason to bet turn.
Of course, but we don't know that. If we bet the turn in this spot vs an aggressive winning player and get forced to a stack decision with one pair, in an 8 spr situation, we are quite literally in a nightmare situation that is extremely difficult to negotiate well, because an aggressive winning player will presumably have a bluff frequency that is close to optimal. We don't need to try to navigate the impossible. There's another way to get 2 streets of value.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bwslim69
If he posted this hand saying he checked turn. River was 6 and villain fired everyone would be screaming that turn check is terrible.
And that WOULD BE results oriented thinking.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bwslim69
I assume if you are checking turn with JJ you are doing the same with AA?
Your assumption is correct. Against
this guy I'm not betting any hand on the turn that doesn't know what to do if raised. No need to, he will reliably bet the river after we check and "turn our hand face up" to AK/AQ/AJ/KQ.
Now everything changes if I believe I can reliably get 3 streets of value vs this guy, i.e. profitably get stacks in. In that case I would probably bet the turn EVEN IF I didn't know what to do when raised. I'm greedy, I want to get my 3 streets of value and I'm willing to face the downside of sometimes being in tough spots to get it, but against a winning player the assumption is we can't go for 3 streets of fat value and stack off profitably at an spr of 8, so there's no need to bet the turn and and risk putting our self in a tough situation. The reward is not worth it.