Game is $1/$3 NL with button straddle at Harrah's in New Orleans. Game is great, with mostly rec players, one really good pro, and lots of drinking and gambling. Hero has been playing for a few hours, only shown down one hand GII on a JcTh4s2s board with JdTd vs KcJs vs a preflop raiser.

Villain seems to be a mid-30's rec, has been drinking all night but is lucid. Has been active but not incredibly out of line bluffing. Villain starts the hand with $425, Hero covers ($750). OTTH:

Hero raises straddle pot from EP to $25 with QQ(this might seem high, but was the std table raise in these pots), Villain calls from CO, everyone else folds.

Flop ($60)
T62

Hero leads for $35 and villain quickly raises to $95. Seems strange V would raise a set on such a dry board, but can't totally rule it out. Folding seems really weak, but 3! also seems bad as V will shove with hands that crush us and likely fold all hands we crush. Anyone disagree? Anyway, I decided call/check turn/re-eval was best of not any real good choices. Thoughts?

Turn ($250)
T624

Hero checks. Villain thinks for maybe 10 seconds and bets $100. Hero?

Thoughts everywhere are welcome as I am just coming back to NL after two years and am very rusty.

Thanks,

Shorn

I think I'm ok with folding flop here. I'm struggling to imagine what could possibly be in his range after an EP $25 open other than 66, TT (maybe 22?) or JJ.

Unless you have better reads and have seen some of his showdowns. Although we have 50% equity against the range above, the equity is skewed towards the QQ vs JJ scenario.

AP, I think turn is a call. We didn't improve but neither did he and we're getting a better deal now for 100 into 250.

I like the raise size pre (is the straddle $5?), especially if it's the norm.

I probably go into call-down mode here. He could have a set, but AT or similar is much more likely. You really just need a read at the table. How often do you raise? How often do you c-bet? Is he paying attention to this?

BTW, Harrah's NOLO is one of my favorite poker rooms. Awesome action.

Your assessment of the situation is right, it isn't an easy situation and there is no really obviously correct choice. This is very much a live read situation.

I'm generally not folding to the flop bet but turn is a toss up that depends entirely on what I think villain's bet is. If it's a cheap stab after a flop bluff then call. If he is trying to reel you in with a big hand then fold.

I thought about folding flop, but it seemed super exploitable and I just wasn't certain that Villain wasn't capable of doing this as a bluff or with a bunch of Ten's. We are getting a better deal on the turn however, villains remaining stack is perfectly sized for a value shove on the river ($200 into $450) if we call so I was contemplating that as well.

Straddle was $6 and I would guess 80% of pots were played this way. The action was superb there no doubt.

I had been semi active so far but not overly so. I was probably viewed as somewhat TAG but again, villain was a rec so hard to know if he even noticed. When I did raise, my c-bet frequency was pretty high on most boards. That being said, I though my call of his raise on the flop would indicate to him that I had something (as I likely fold AK-AJ and any really small pairs).

A board like this is notoriously underbluffed, and sizing down on the turn is a pretty reliable tell. EBF.

This was exactly my dilemma and I didn't have a good enough read to determine which was going on. And did I really want to call off 150 total blinds with an overpair?

Given this, do any of you guys think about checking this flop given that you likely only can/want to get two streets of value with a one pair holding? Just something I am thinking about with Overpairs, top pair OOP.

I wouldn't consider a $25 raise in a straddled pot with deep stacks at an action table remotely high, and in fact at my table under these conditions I would consider it smallish and might even consider limp/reraising.

SPR is an awkward 6.7. It will take just 3 small-reasonable bets to get in stacks. Doesn't sound like Villain is ******ed and we've been very quiet overall, so if we raise preflop and bet 3 postflop streets for stacks and get called, we lose pretty much every time. Board is bone dry. I check and would be pretty happy if the flop checked thru so I don't have to play for stacks. If we end up playing for stacks, we would much rather do so by widening our range / underrepping our hand and check/calling it off than betting it off. So I don't like the flop bet.

Another reason I don't like the flop bet is that it puts us in an awkward spot if he raises like he did. Is this the last bet he's putting in to see where he's at? Or is he going to continue putting us to the test on the turn we're we'll have to check OOP? Overall I would lean towards a nitty fold here, but I'm also kinda not comfortable with that here, which is another reason I don't bet.

As played I fold the turn. Our hand is face up on the table and this guy hasn't been getting out-of-line for big stacks, and now it looks like he is comfortable attempting to play for them.

GcluelessNLnoobG

By EBF you mean Easy Bet/Fold?

Looking at equity vs direct odds, this is a clear call ott:
250+100+100=450 100/450=22.22%

Board: Td6h2c4s
Equity Win Tie
UTG+2 31.40% 29.13% 2.27% { QsQc }
CO 68.60% 66.32% 2.27% { KK-TT, 66, 22 }

(correct?)

And that is the strongest range I can give him, ie 0 combos of AT AND giving him KK (unlikely)

I'm not a big math guy. My gut tells me that vs random Vs @ llsnl, this is a -EV call in the long run.
Is he doing this with AT/Tx/air? Usually not, so I guess I fold.

Yup this kinda nails it and why I asked about checking this flop. Seems like a good one to check OOP with our entire range because of awkward stack size.

Yeah, I kinda think in some spots it is more appropriate to ignore the odds we're getting and instead concentrate on what hands this guy would be betting here. If he raised the flop with Tx and continues betting the turn thinking he's ahead, he's kinda ******ed; is Villain ******ed? And on top of that, most semi-competent Villains are far more likely to be MUBSy in big pots than they are ******ed / overvalue a hand. And yet here he is betting.

As for ranging, I think we also have to put AA/KK into the mix (which I think you must as first caller at a deepstack action table).

GcluelessNLnoobB

Exploit by folding.

Everyone always wants to "exploit" people by putting them on specific hands and "owning" them. With a lot of players, you exploit them with the 0ev move of just not paying them off when they obviously have the nuts. Hence: EBF. You're owning him by folding an OP here.

Please don't check your entire range on T62r. Sizing down and betting your entire range is much better.

This. This only works if you're actually capable of checking your entire range here, which not only isn't the case, but I suspect is pretty sub optimal.

Pot should be about $53 on the flop after rake. Your $35 bet is 2/3 pot. That’s a bit high on such a dry board. If you are ahead then V most likely only has 2-5 outs to improve on the turn. If you are behind then you only have 2 outs to improve. I’d bet like $20 on the flop and try to get a call from smaller PP’s that love to put you on AK and AQ. Once raised, I would just let this one go. There’s no draws on this board and there’s no 2 pair combos that make sense so V most likely has a set here. If I see V do this in the future with a hand like AT, KT, etc. then I can adjust and call with my OP’s. However, I’d just let him have it this first time. If you do call the flop then there’s a good chance you could end up playing for your entire stack.

Let me give a recreational player's perspective. I just posted a similar situation but on the other side of the spectrum. I called a raise with pocket 9's and floped middle set. I had position. Villain bet out and I pretty quickly reraised him. I don't know what he had but he pretty quickly folded. Either your villain is a total fish, a weak player who wouldn't even stop to think that he's up against an over pair and thought his top pair on the flop was the nuts, or he had you crushed. In my opinion, you can only risk half your stack if you got that good a read on what his competence realy is.

I'm probably not folding the turn without a super strong read. Villain could easily have AT or JJ in this spot and be betting for value thinking he is ahead. If he jams river though, I probably fold as most rec players aren't going Raise in position, bet, All-In, without a hand that's 2 pair+

I think this hand is a great example of how knowing your game makes a big difference in how you should play hands. Opinions are all over the place about how likely it is villain is bluffing or what kinds of mistaken value hands he can have.

If I was sitting down at a typical daytime tight/passive 1/2 game I might even find a fold on the flop because the only likely hand hero is beating is JJ and JJ+/sets makes up villain's range.

At a late night loose/aggro 2/5 game I would double villain up in this situation sometimes because those villains can be bluff raising flop and continuing to barrel air.

So this is interesting. I would find it hard to fold river once committing $225 to the pot...that seems bad. Basically for me, it was deciding if I wanted to play for the last $300 or not on the turn because I felt there was little chance V would check behind if I called again.

OK, makes sense to bet whole range but smaller. If you were IP would you change your mind? Finally, are we planning on checking any street or just betting small the whole way unless/until we are raised?

This is very true and I think the hand does a good job of highlighting the difficulty playing an OP profitably when OOP and semi-deepish. It just seems to cause all kinds of problems.

This hand occurred at around 1230 AM in a relatively loose game but like I said this guy had not shown down any terrible hands or bluffs and this really was my first confrontation with him.

I will add results now (not that they matter): I ended up choosing to fold the turn because I just didn't think QQ was good often enough on that board versus his range to merit most likely paying $300 more. Villain flashed JTo to me as he mucked so that was a nice piece of info...never got another shot at him though as he left about 30 minutes later.

Thanks for all the input guys. Really helpful.

Shorn

I do think that small bet size on the turn was a bit of a tell (as opposed to trying to set up a good river shove, which most LLNL rec players don't even know how to do), but you really needed to be prepared to call most rivers.

I do understand the fold, though.

I'd bet $$ he showed you JTo to let you know that you made a "good fold". He was probably thinking that you folded a hand worse than JT (99, AK, AQ, etc), all reasonable hands that would probably C-Bet and call a raise. With a marginal hand like this, most Rec players are comfortable (as in not doubting that their Top pair hand is not good) with 1 call of their bet or raise. With no over cards to the 10 on the board, even after turn, Villain continues betting again for value, probably expecting a fold out of you with any hand that is worse than his. When you make that 2nd call, now he's not feeling as comfortable, and he's not so sure anymore that his hand is best. After you call the turn Villain will most likely check back all of his one pair hands on the river. Unless he improves of course.

If villain goes all-in on river after taking this line, they almost always have 2 pair+. Most recs are not skilled or willing to turn Top Pair on the board into a bluff, and will happily check the river given the option.