X/R the flop is by far the worst option (next to open folding our hand).

It's really game / opponent dependent. In my game, $400+ stacks (even in a raised or straddled pot) go in extremely rarely; I've been told this isn't how a lot of games play, but from the 1/3 NL HHs I've seen posted here I'm not terribly convinced of that. If you end up getting in $400+ stacks here, especially as the aggressor, you're most likely behind on this board in the game I play. And on top of that we only got in 6% of stacks preflop; I'm almost never looking to stack off postflop having gotten in that little preflop with just one pair.

The question isn't whether we're likely ahead on this flop or even likely ahead when a flop bet is called (we clearly are). The thing we have to take far more into consideration is that we're starting on our way to playing for stacks here due to this SPR / being OOP, and how often are we ahead if our opponent is willing to get $400+ stacks in? Again, your game / opponent experience may differ to where you have a different answer for this (and being results oriented in this hand, it looks like we might actually feel comfortable playing for stacks against this guy cuz he clearly is overvalueing his hand).

GcluelessNLnoobG

Grunch

WP, call the turn and c/c basically any non-T rivers. Might consider c/f an Ace river if he still bets on that.

Post results reading: ugh. I suppose I understand the fold, but if you were going to fold you needed to fold flop. Calling a flop raise to c/f a turn blank is the nut low here.

I think posters ITT are assigning way too tight a range to V here. The vast vast vast majority of LLSNL villains do not raise a set on this bone dry flop in position. They wait for Hero to bet turn again with the overpair and then they raise. V's flop raising range here is full of all sorts of nonsense, and most of it is way behind QQ. We should be in complete call down mode.

Yes, sometimes we lose a stack this way against 66/22. But way more often than not we just let V value-own himself because he raised AT to "see where he was at" and figured TPTK was the nutz because we didn't re-raise him.

It's a real tightrope. Yeah, there will be times he shows up with Tx and is perfectly willing to call 3 postflop bets, and so if we only get in 2 postflop bets (thanks to checking a street or being OOP and letting him check back the river) we feel maybe we missed a bet in those cases and we're not optimum. But there are also times we're behind. And there are times when maybe he takes a stab with air if we play passive. Or pays off two later streets with a very weak hand (possibly one that hits on the turn) if we check the flop (where he would have folded the flop). And we don't risk getting blown off the best hand as often. All-in-all, it balances out.

I actually don't have a problem with you folding in this hand as you played it (I actually would have folded sooner). But for me, I'm a showdown monkey in these pots and really try my best to get to showdown for as reasonable as possible without playing for stacks when I don't feel committed postflop, which often means playing very passively (especially on early streets, especially against opponents I don't feel comfortable bet/folding against either due to their aggression or their cluelessness).

GimoG

Thanks. I am starting to think that on such a dry board like this, being OOP, and with stacks we aren't willing to commit unimproved, that playing more passive makes a ton of sense. Certainly better (IMO) than (1) being aggro and either folding out a weak V or losing stack or (2) playing as I did which was in-between aggro and passive and folding the best hand too often.

Everyone has been really helpful so thanks again to all.

Shorn

I can't agree. We have have have have have to be able to cbet boards like this when we whiff with AK/AQ/AJ/KQ. It's printing money cbetting this board with those holdings.

Therefore, since we're cbetting with air, we 100% have to cbet with value. QQ is near the top of our value range here, checking it would be criminal.

The adjustments to make re: passivity are those in reaction to the flop raise, and later streets, its NOT about whether to bet or check this flop.

It is a fair point unless we actually get passive with our entire range on dry boards like this. Q really is what is our equity loss for playing that way over the long term in order to avoid these tough spots and I am not sure I can answer that.

This states it as clearly as it can be said I think.

If H in this hand had TT instead of QQ, everyone would be saying he needs to bet this flop. If hero isn't capable of checking a set of Ts here, he shouldn't be checking any of his current range.

I suspect that if this was posted as a PAHWM instead of all action at once, 90%+ of advice would be to bet $30-$40.

The conversation in this hand should be whether to fold the flop or not (i'm not folding), not whether leading the flop is correct.

I think the hand was played fine until the turn. When you make your decision on the flop, you need to decide if you think you currently have the best hand or not. If you don't, just muck. If you do, you need to be prepared to let V barrel off and get to show down.

I disagree, and this goes back to a point made earlier in the thread about playing super exploitively. Against a lot of opponents, we simply don't have to have a balanced range here. We can cbet our whiffed hands when we want to (attempting to steal the pot), and we can check our mediocre made hands when we want to (which we're looking to get to showdown with). It's going to take a massive amount of hours / hand showing / note taking / stalking (paging Ava) for any particular villain to get a handle on our play here, and even then it will still be very difficult for them to figure this out given how we could play totally differently depending on SPR (where I would check an SPR 7 here yet would be fairly comfortable bet/betting for stacks in SPR 3) and depending on hand (where I'd probably bet this flop at this SPR both with air and with a monster, which if we really are worried about balance is probably all the balance we need)

GimoG

I just want to +1 this. I finally ended up finding the results and my initial suggestion still stands: in _my_ games, this is an easy fold flop, because my games are generally nittier and a PSB reraise on that board means your one pair is behind, even if it's an overpair.

Guys like this V will usually go bust in 2-3 orbits if they play like this consistently (sometimes they will tighten up after the first failed bluff). At least 2 regs will target and isolate them and they won't last long if they raise flop like that.

I don't think I can agree with checking the flop though.

This particular spot has nothing to do with balance. It's +EV to cbet with air on this board because it's bone dry and we win the pot without a pair extremely often. It's also +EV to bet this board with value, because we're very unlikely to be behind and there are many Tx combos we can get value from.

Whatever happened to the mentality of "people don't drive to the casino to fold?" This could potentially be a three street value spot. You can't get three streets of value if you don't bet the flop.

There are a lot of things in poker I'm learning and willing to change my position on. Checking QQ heads up on a T-high dry rainbow flop isn't one of them. There's just no merit to it. I don't often take absolute positions, but this is an instance where it's valid.

In my experience, in the games I play in, this mostly applies to preflop and not postflop.

Again, in the games I play in, against most opponents we're way behind if he calls a 4th straight bet (preflop / flop / turn / river).

But, I suppose it is also dependent on our overall style of play. If we have a very aggressive image and are constantly double/triple barrelling air, then we'll probably also have to do that with our value hands too. Not sure if OP fits that image (and admittedly I don't).

GcluelessNLnoobG

I don't fit that image at all. In fact, it is clear that for today's games, I need to be a bit more aggressive than I have been in the past as I am leaving some value on the table. That being said, I also don't think that constantly stacking off on boards like this with an OP is a long term money winner either...its just one of those spots where your gut read is going to be somewhat more important than the straight math.

In this game I call that guy down all the way.