Playing $1-2 in AC
Full BI (300+) for each player in hand.

Hero has worked to become more TAG in EP, LAG in LP, limp less, call less the past month.
Villian is an AC reg. Have played with him before. Introduced ourselves a couple of weeks ago. I viewed him as TAG from all spots, until he showed up with SC against me on an earlier pot. I was the pfr, cbet, checked behind on the turn and folded to his river bet. He showed 3rd pair, which was good against my overs.

A couple of hours into a session at a reg infested table...

I have QQ in lp, raise to 15.
Called by V in BB. I have him on a wide range. Any pp, Axs, SC.

Flop 822r.
He checks, I fire 25, he calls.

Turn T.
He checks. I fire 50, he calls.

River 5.
He fires 155.


Thoughts on this specific hand?
Thoughts on an unimproved big pair on a paired board.
I will share results and more thoughts later.

Thanks.

Your line wasn't very strong. Definitely underrepped imo. Maybe to him, looks like you were double barreling with an Ax hand. Also, given the history, I think it's a call.

Given the situation and villain description, I'm calling river for a less then pot sized bet. I don't think it's a huge +EV situation, but villain could be betting hands you beat for value and could be bluffing.

These paired boards where the pair is low are very hard to hit. Because of this, I expect to be WA/WB on turn and would check behind a lot to keep villains range wider and pot control when I am beat by a boat.

I'm calling. I think only hand we really have to worry about is a random 2 or 88. I think he would have raised flop with 1010. Slight possibility he stuck around with 55 and hit river. Did any back door flushes come?

Looks good if you call the river. Bet sizing could be a little bigger on the turn, maybe 60, but that's all I got.

I can't see folding the river. Raising would be a spew.

Your line is standard for a strong over-pair and includes a pf raise of 5xbb, a flop c-bet of 5/6 pot and a turn bet of 5/8 pot or ~65% of pot. Was your plan to value bet the river if he'd checked to you a third time? A regular who knows your game certainly recognizes your pf range is likely pairs and big aces. However, after you bet the turn he's confident, because of your shared history, you've an over-pair. His line is creative and includes calling a pf raise and two streets only to lead with a 155:181 or ~80% psb on a blank river which leaves you with 155:336 or ~2.2:1 to call (raising only gets called by better hands) with only an over-pair on a rainbow but paired board. QQ versus your perception of his pf range is way ahead and so you're justified in calling and even with his range shrunken up to only include those hands which would also call two streets on that board, pairs and A2, which includes full houses (88, 55 or less likely 1010), trips, slowly played AA or KK and bluff hands which most likely are creatively played weaker pairs, you're still a favorite. The math suggests it's a call but his line sure feels like he's trying to extract maximum value. The size of his bet is big enough to scare some players off of an over-pair but if he's capable of knowing that you might think that (you're both regulars who play together often) he might've made a ~4/5 psb for value versus your fairly obvious over-pair on a paired but otherwise innocuous board. Do you think he thinks you were going to check back the river? Has he ever seen you make a value bet on the river with only an over-pair? Calling is correct.

Grunching …

Villain may be aware you are laggy in LP so I think TT would 3-bet pre, perhaps even 88.

I think most LLSNL players raise big hands by the turn, especially if they put you on an over pair. You are crushed by 88 and A2s which total 5 combos outstanding. There may be more 2X combos, but still a pretty small range beating you. I have to discount KK+ heavily. There is also history of you folding the river. You missed, but he did not know that.

Tough call since the sizing does seem value-oriented. I’d try to get something from him; make a tank call, hoping to see hands like AT/KT.

Tough spot, I lean towards a call. Given history with villain I think that this correct. Expect to beat fairly often though.

At first I though that this is a bet turn all the way... but the more I think about it I'm inclined to checking the turn for pot control. It would make the river choice much easier. You'll still get a value bet on the river out of 8x/Tx, possibly smaller pp's. Yet you don't build such a big pot and give yourself a hard choice. Besides, with the paired board you're no longer looking at 8x/Tx hands pair again to beat you.

As played.. call and pray he mucks!

I don't follow this. Villain may think Hero FOS, but Hero's line is definitely strong enough for a fairly big overpair.

River is very player dependent. You know you villain better than we do, but most villains show up with a boat there more often than not.

I snap this.

I agree with samo that most llsnl players will make their move by the turn with monster hands. I can see him showing up on the river with JJ, AT, KT, T8 and random bluffs. He probably knows it's difficult for you to have a hand on this board and is taking that opportunity to vbet his medium strength hands or haul off a bluff with something like AK.

Also, I challenge your mention of the table being 'reg infested'. I play everyday in AC. 95% of the regs are terrible.

Given this history, and the way this hand played out, he should realize that you have a good hand here. But he's betting the river anyway. You are probably beat. I think he's betting because he's afraid you'll check behind.

If he remembers the hand I quoted above, then the fact that you did not give up on the turn in this hand should tell him something. When he calls the flop, he can't have a draw--there's just nothing there. He has 8x, a pocket pair smaller than yours, or else you are no good. So it's going to be tough for you to fire again with air after he tells you he thinks he has the best hand. I think he's putting you on a good one (technically two) pair hand after you bet the turn--but he's sticking more money in.

I suppose it is possible that he's turning ace high into a bluff now, but how does he even get this far with ace high? Do you think he could be calling the turn with naked AK? I personally don't think so, so I can't figure out what we can be ahead of here. If you think it's possible that you could be good because you don't know this guy well enough, and he could surprise you with a hand you beat, call the 155, but get ready to see a lot of 2x/88/TT or even 55.

By the way, with the history you mention, I'd be checking back the turn precisely so that I can snap off a river bet, or maybe even sometimes raise one.

Call. U really only lose to 88,55, or 1010. U could even check turn to raise fold river given history as u get looked up light a lot

i think it's a call, but it's thin and read-dependent.

if he is a thinking player, the fact that you raised from LP may cause him to give you a wider range here and play back more.

to the folks who thought the previous hand where hero checked back the turn means villain has to give him a hand here... maybe. or maybe villain expects hero to make an adjustment here and fire again in position. or maybe based on history, villain knows hero has a hand but also knows it's almost certainly a one pair hand, and thinks he can get hero to fold.

i just don't think we can infer too much about villain from that one hand.

Not enough info provided on V but i think this is a fold.

He has c/c you twice OOP and suddenly leads huge on river. Now i know its actually less than a pot sized bet but a bet of $155 is considered huge on 1/2. What can V have? If he called flop with pocket pair like 77 he would not make this river bet. You described him as TAG, and i dont think there is any way i 1/2 TAG will c/c flop and turn just to bluff river. The board run out is so innocuous the 10 and 5 are horrible cards to bluff and he should know that.

I guess the hands that beat you are of course trip 2's, pocket 88's or if he lucked out with pocket 10's or 5's but the bottom line is i dont see how his line is a bluff. Even if he floated flop with overs like A10 i dont think he would bet such a big amount on river.

In general, c/c flop and turn and then bet out big on river on dry boards is very often near nuts.

This. I'd also add that if you searched this forum for big pots involving QQ+ against a small pair on the board, "QQ+ getting ass-raped" is better than 1:2.2 versus "QQ+ snapping off a bluff."

Also, when facing a big river bet from out of position, I usually go with Occam's razor: the simplest explanation is "you're beat."

I had a similar type hand a few weeks ago, where I chatted the guy up on the river: "XX is good." Him: "I don't have XX." Me: "YY is good." Him: "I don't have YY either." Me [mucking AA face up]: "Well, I don't know how you have me beat, but I know you do."

He showed me a missed flush draw that had turned into a back door baby straight.

It would be hard for ME to lay it down. Depends on who I play against in situations like that. Getting called down and then being bet into on river means 1 of 2 things. He thinks you're full of ****... Or he hit/had you all along. "You're beat". It comes down to knowing your opponent... Granted, if I wasn't sure who I was playing against then I would call. Against people I've played with for 3-4 hours or more and have a "feel" for, may lay it down. Comes to knowing your villain and thinking if he really has what he says he has.. QQ+, A2, AT,88, 8T, TT. I wouldn't play it much differently than you did... Maybe on a flop like that you could check (knowing who you're against), but I'm playing like you played.

Unless he thinks OP is completely FOS he's prolly not value betting 8T or A10, in which most cases he would likely c/c to bluff catch OP and considering the preflop play QQ+ is unlikely.

A2 combos, 88 & TT are the only hands that make any sense for Villian to bet here

I'm 50/50 on the call - but I prolly sigh and let this one go..that's a really big river bet and it jus seems unlikely given the board texture that he has something we beat.

Also, I like checking back the turn for pot control with the paired board with intentions of calling the now smaller river bet.


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i call but im sure he had pocket fives or tens

I don't see many (near) PSBs otr at 1/2. I just don't think this is a size he can expect to get called otr. Fish bet ridiculous amounts, but when a reg makes a river bet I think "can he really think this will ever get called?" and it's no here for me. I'd call.

Lol, that's a reason to fold, not call.

I've seen this player fold to a c-bet in the past. The call didn't indicate much to me, as I thought he expected that I might check the turn. I suppose he folds his SCs under 8.

I fired on the turn, and probably turned my hand face up. In my mind, I was at least representing a T or JJ+. Given our history, I suppose that AJ+ was in my range and it was a possible play to try to fold out 8x (repping bigger).

I was surprised when he called the turn. I don't think he makes that call with overs, and now his range shrinks a little more. 8x, Tx, 88, TT-QQ (you guys are right, AA and KK gets 3-bet pre).

Unless I saw a river Queen, I was planning to check behind.

The River 5. I'm sitting tight, waiting for him to stop shuffling chips, pretending he is going to bet, before checking a 3rd time. Instead, he stacks some up and slides out a good sized bet.

A pause for some thought. Does he have a weaker 2 pair that he thinks is good? Did he really call me preflop with 2x. Did he catch a set (full house)? Does he bet this much with the goods or as a bluff?

I decide that there are plenty of hands that he thinks are good enough to value bet, and that my hand may still look like AJ+.




Yes, I thought about checking behind on the turn. I probably knew that I was going to check behind on the river, unimproved. I decided that there were worse hands that would call, and betting the turn was still value. I don't get value from overs that miss on the river. WA/WB indeed. If c/r on this turn, I can probably figure WB.


No backdoor flushes.

No thoughts about raising the river.

Was not going to value bet the river if I missed.
I don't think I've fired 4 bullets with 'just' an overpair in the recent past.
Yes, I think he expected me to check behind on the river.

Re: Turn moves. I'm starting to become more attuned to not playing mindless on the turn. In the past, I would have checked the turn when I hit, to avoid chasing him away. Now, I'm firing the turns, to avoid chasing him away on the river and the draws didn't come. If he c/r the turn, I'm likely done with the hand.

Reg infested was merely a description. There was lots of table chatter (Not OPTAH violations, just friendly conversation). As a non-reg, but frequent summer player, I recognized some of the regs. When I see them chatting up others, I assume they are regs as well.

Yes, at the time I thought he expected Tx and 8x to be good. I wanted him to have Tx and 8x and think he was good. In hindsight, I don't know if he bets Tx/8x like that on the river.

In hindsight, it would have been a much easier play to check turn, and snap call a river bet (smaller and I'm def underrepped). As mentioned above, I loses value from worse hands on the turn.


Indeed.


Thanks again to all for the comments and insights. I'm still reading, chatting and trying to make better observations.

If the Villain is even remotely close to being a TAG he should not be holding a 2. Consequently, while he could have 88/TT (or even some super-slowplayed KK/AA if he decided to not 3-bet PF when he saw it would be HU), I think he could easily have hands like 8x/Tx/66/77/99 and be betting even if he isn't sure if it's a bluff or a value-bet.

Consequently, I would likely call...even though I am a payoff wizard

Unless he is over betting to make it look like a bluff. Seems like 88 might do exactly this.

^ Yup, that's higher than level I though, I don't see any players thinking above level I @ 1/2 so I'd have no reason to assume this guy was. I would've been wrong, just remember it for next time.