1/2, 7 handed.

I splash around for about an hour nothing crazy. villain (sb in this hand) has an enormous stack, obviously running good. He is calling pretty loose pre and making large bets post. he will 3bet wider than AA,KK,AK. he will also call huge bets on a draw. he has shown down some big hands in large pots.

Hand:

My stack is 85bb (effective). I get KsKh in CO. everyone folds to me, i raise to 5bb. I get called by everyone else.

flop: 10c7s7h

blinds check to me and i bet 15bb. button folds, sb raises to 45bb, bb folds.

at this point i only have 65bb left in a 80bb pot.

He is very capable of calling pre with many 7x suited combos (a,k,9,8,6,5 at least). of course the 10-10 and 77 and 10-7s crush me (17 combos). should probably add 67,78 unsuited (12 combos)

I beat jj and qq (he probably 3 bets QQ, maybe not after 1 caller) (12 combos). its possible he might cr with TPTK (12 combos)

pot
65/(65+80)= 45%

combos
24/(24+29)=45%

looks like a pretty thin/optimistic AI to me. thoughts?

Raise more pre

Yes, raise more pre. $10 is a small raise at most 1/2 tables.

Sounds like you bet $30 into $50 on the flop, got raised to $90. I expect he has some air in his range, and from your small preflop bet he likely doesn't put you on KK.

Barring reads, I'm either calling here/jamming turn or just 3bet jamming here. KK is around the top of your range, and villain sounds active and aggressive enough to be thinking about your range and reacting to it.

Benefit of calling here/jamming turn is that it keeps his complete bluffs in play.
Benefit of raising here is that he might decide you're spazzing with overcards, call light with J10-A10/99/88.

Make a decision whether you think his range is more pure bluffs or more weak 10s and pocket pairs, choose accordingly.

Raise more preflop, $10-$12 is a typical 1/2 opening size in LP.

As played, can't fold but it's not a fat value bet. You need to add 98 to the combos you beat, and that puts you ahead enough that folding is too weak. I'm partial to flatting now and shoving turn because villain has to go first on turn.

Don't think I can fold here. Probs calling then gii on the turn.
Your hand looks super weak from sizing and there are a ton of hands that could raise you here.

Would raise more pf. ppl will call much more than $10 with a very wide range.

a/p I jam over the raise. He is going to look like a total wuss if he raises you here and then folds to a shove, so I doubt he folds anything except air.

Agree that it;s thin, but its better than folding. Nothing on the turn should change your plan, would just shove now.

Nothing wrong with calling and then shoving the turn to any card, either. Just that a lot of turn cards will come that will make you second guess putting the rest of your stack in.

Raise more pre. I like it. makes post easier.

AP, I GII. Villain proudly turned over 7h4h. I was only steamed because I had to leave.

if I call turn, are scare cards relevant? ( I guess I potentially hate A,J,10,9,8,6) but with a pot of 135 and a stack of 35 I think I'm still GII. ( I think this applies to villain as well, scare cards are slightly different than mine.)

I think the bet/call flop, call or shove turn line is better than my line.

I think my math was wrong for the % on a shove. Above math would be for a bluff situation.

bb I can win= 80 (current pot) + 65 (my stack)=145

use approx numbers

$ odds= 150/70=2.2

1/(2.2+1)=about 30%

given a bigger PF raise and adding some 98 to his range (maybe a bluff) it makes this play good.

I'm not advocating a turn call.

I'm saying either jam the flop, or call the flop and autojam the turn.

Not enough reads on what kinds of hands he raises

Does he do this with AT
Does he do this with 89

If not than I would fold, the only likely value hand we beat would be JJ