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Overpair on low flop?

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06-04-2013 , 01:41 AM

zxing

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 126

Preflop descriptions:

Villain : White male. No real reads on him yet, but doesn't seem to be a fish. Doesn't seem to be a shark either though.

Hero: Straightforward tight-aggressive player. First time at this particular table. Bought in full once, added on later.

$1/3 NL at Hard Rock Tampa
SB Villain ($210)
BB
UTG
UTG 1
MP
MP2
LP 1 Hero ($300)
LP 2
Button

Hero is dealt J

UTG calls $3, MP raises to $16, MP 2 folds, Hero reraises to $45, folds to SB, SB Villain calls, UTG calls, MP calls.

Flop ($180): 7

SB Villain bets $100, folds to Hero.

Hero?

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06-04-2013 , 02:25 AM

Backstroker41

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 1,666

Well, lucky for you, you're not deep, but you're going to have to stack off here. He can certainly have QQ+/77/55/33/75/53, but also 88-TT/66/44 and random stuff like 7x that he thinks is good.

Since you don't have any solid reads, it's probably a judgement call, but I don't think I'm folding for 70bbs.

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06-04-2013 , 02:30 AM

stinkubus

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 4,422

If you can't stack off on this flop don't 3 bet JJ pre...

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06-04-2013 , 03:33 AM

undurrrated18

enthusiast

Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 98

I would say a fd shows up here a lot maybe a combo draw even A 6 cc or something i mean if he was set mining for more than 20% of his stack then good for him

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06-04-2013 , 05:43 AM

Czech Rays

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 1,645

Quote:

Originally Posted by stinkubus

If you can't stack off on this flop don't 3 bet JJ pre...

This

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06-04-2013 , 05:50 AM

stevesmith1980

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 308

Easy fold. The SB smooth calls a 3bet to $45 pre? He's got aces or kings.

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06-04-2013 , 06:14 AM

Questifer

newbie

Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 39

My best advice is to 3- bet to $60 or even more if a 3-bet is getting called by 3 villains very often at all.

I'm either jamming or folding flop since over half is stack will be in the middle after his bet, but this read is just villian dependent. If he has been aggro at all I'm stacking off here. If he hasn't made any plays it makes it more difficult to fold, but if he seems really comfortable I may have to. I would fish for a little info then decide.

More often than not I'm getting it in unless I can get a read he's super strong with this lead.

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06-04-2013 , 06:23 AM

Buster65

The Situation

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 2,240

Quote:

Originally Posted by stevesmith1980

Easy fold. The SB smooth calls a 3bet to $45 pre? He's got aces or kings.

Really, you think he's just itching to go 3 or 4 way to a flop with AA or KK and only 70BB back? Maybe.

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06-04-2013 , 09:01 AM

Andnoel

grinder

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 587

Folding overpair with an SPR of <3 is a criminal offence.

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06-04-2013 , 09:58 AM

#10

ultqb7

banned

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 60

What have you got to lose?

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06-04-2013 , 10:23 AM

#11

Oddhalo

The Situation

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 1,004

Just flat your jacks pf unless up against an uber lag spewer...

As played fold as u are prob 90% up against a bigger pair here.

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06-04-2013 , 10:29 AM

#12

FlyLikeABird

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 1,679

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oddhalo

Just flat your jacks pf unless up against an uber lag spewer...

As played fold as u are prob 90% up against a bigger pair here.

Assume everyone is an idiot until proven otherwise. With reads, there are a few people who I would not want to have JJ against here. But with no reads, and SPR, folding JJ here is ludicrous.

Push him all in and don't be surprised to see 88+ and flush draws. He could show up with QQ+ also but you are going to have to pay him here.

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06-04-2013 , 10:49 AM

#13

Oddhalo

The Situation

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 1,004

V's are donking 88-10/10 and fd's on this flop for 100 bux?

I think thats giving alot of credit to an unknown.

I would expect to see QQ here a ton if you stack off here.. Maaaybe at 2/5 u see this play occasionally.

U only have 45 bux invested right now. Im getting out but then again i would have flatted pf.

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06-04-2013 , 11:03 AM

#14

xxMaquiladoraxx

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 2,968

I mean you're never not shoving here buuut:

SB cold calls a cold 3bet OOP pre then donk-bombs flop to what is for all purposes a shove (donking $100, leaving $70 behind).

I think it's possible to see 88+ here, with some spazz FD's but I agree with Oddhalo and weight the range towards QQ+ here mostly.

I don't have pokerstove handy but with the much dead money and the possibility that villain is a drooler, it's still a shove with villain having $70 behind.

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06-04-2013 , 11:32 AM

#15

fold4once

The Situation

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 4,229

vs. a pretty narrow range of:

77+, 55, 33, A

, A

Hero's JJ has 43.4% equity.

If you do view this as a shove of $170 into a pot of $180, hero is calling 170 to win 350, meaning, 32.7% is the minimum equity needed to call.

Remove 88 + 99 from villain's flat-3-bet/donk range, though, and it becomes a losing call.

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06-04-2013 , 11:35 AM

#16

xxMaquiladoraxx

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 2,968

Quote:

Originally Posted by fold4once

vs. a pretty narrow range of:

77+, 55, 33, A

, A

So, marginal spot is actually extremely marginal.

Last edited by xxMaquiladoraxx; 06-04-2013 at 11:35 AM. Reason: Thanks for the math! F4O

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06-04-2013 , 12:21 PM

#17

Czech Rays

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 1,645

Quote:

vs. a pretty narrow range of:

77+, 55, 33, AK, AQ

Hero's JJ has 43.4% equity.

If you do view this as a shove of $170 into a pot of $180, hero is calling 170 to win 350, meaning, 32.7% is the minimum equity needed to call.

Remove 88 + 99 from villain's flat-3-bet/donk range, though, and it becomes a losing call.

This is the math that needed to be done.

Quote:

Originally Posted by zxing

Villain : White male. No real reads on him yet, but doesn't seem to be a fish. Doesn't seem to be a shark either though.

But this says that even the original range is too tight. We have to discount AA. If he´s not folding 33, 55 and 77 preflop, then he´s also doing lots of spazzy stuff we couldn´t fathom. Getting raised postflop with overpairs isn´t usually a fistpump moment, but the random, overvalued and draw-based parts of many villains range is so wide that we have to eat up the variance when the odds are good.

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06-04-2013 , 12:56 PM

#18

Backstroker41

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 1,666

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oddhalo

This is the exact situation where fish say, "I thought you had AK."

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