I got in a couple similar spots to this hand over the past weekend. I think my hand is face up as an overpair and I am facing a Laggy player who I think could be bluffing. Feels like a game of chicken and I am not really sure how far to push my overpair. Any advice on how to handle these situations in general (I know, “it depends…”) or the one described below is much appreciated.

V in CO ($300) young kid. Playing LAG as far as I can tell. Table opened up 30-45 mins ago and he has been very active. Don’t think I have seen him bluff at this point in time, but based on his betting frequency he has to have some bluffs or at least semi bluffs in his range. Has recently gii pf with AA and lost to AK. Reloaded right after

Hero in BB ($300) young kid. Have not played any hands of note so far and V has noticed this, he was even joking about it. So must be viewed as tight. Question is whether V views me as weak-tight

Otth…

Hero dealt QQ in BB

1 limp to V in CO who raises to $10. Folds to Hero in BB who 3bets to $30. Folds back to V who quickly calls.

Flop ($63) 79T

Hero bets out $40. V raises to $100. Hero?

Like I was describing above, I think it’s pretty clear I have an overpair (ok, maybe I have AK, but not really continuing unless its AhKh). And this board hits V’s range much more so than mine cuz I can see him calling pf with 99,TT and possibly 88 and 77 as well. Also he could have something like AKhh, AQhh, etc.

Against a set I am way behind. But can I really give up that easily with an overpair to a bluffer? And if I do call, can I fold later or am I committed after calling flop?

I'd put him squarely on Axhh or air. Suited hearts are a very small % of our range since we raised from BB and then cbet 2/3psb.

I'm either shoving (170 to win 430, little over 40% for a call from NFD, which is pretty thin) or calling/shoving any non /A/K turn

Too many draws to fold, all-in. LAG should be 4b KK/AA almost 100%. $40 pre/$70 flop next time.

yea, given that we have basically the nut pair hand (discount KK/AA because of PF action), I think we should go with the hand.

Calling is too weird, since there are so many difficult turn cards. We can't really put in $100 (1/3 of our stack), and then fold the turn, so...


ALL IN BAYBAY

Realistically, you're behind everything other than air. If you shove, you can expect to be called by everything other than complete air. You're paying 230 to win 400. You need equity of 37%. Against a reasonable A high FD, you have about 47% equity. Against a set or two pair, you have about 25% equity. Doing the math,

0.37 = X*0.25 + (1-X)*0.47

X = 0.10/.22 or 45%.

Therefore, he needs to have a FD 55% of the time to make a shove make sense. Given that he probably doesn't have a bunch of T9 and 97 hands in his range, so his FD range needs to be even higher.

Now let's look at Bayesian analysis of range. If we put him on an Axs FD range, there aren't enough Axs hands that can cover the sets for him to have a FD 55%+ of the time.

Therefore, as much as I dislike folding this hand, it is a fold unless you think the villain is playing back at you. And one of the first rules of LLSNL is that they aren't playing back at you.

Very nice post.

Like the application of Bayesian analysis in this way.

The flop is shove or fold, if you flat you've put in almost 50% of your stack, there are a ton of bad turns for you, and you're going to be OOP. If you shove, you need ~38% equity assuming villain always calls.

Board: T97
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
MP2****27.85%**27.17%***0.68%*{ QsQc }
MP3****72.15%**71.47%***0.68%*{ TT-99, 77, T9s, AhKh, AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, 8h7h, 7h6h }

Against a range of draws / combo draws, sets and 2 pair, you don't have the equity that you need. You need a read that villain can be value-raising worse (e.g. JJ, AT, KT) or bluffing to make a shove here profitable.

I puke fold here.

You have very little history on the vill, and 30 minutes could mean he's being smacked by the deck as opposed to running over the table. Going all-in with pocket rockets isn't particularly LAG. He's noticed you've been playing it pretty tight so far, and so he has to range you pretty narrow when you 3! out of the BB. Unless he's getting tricky with pocket aces or kings, he'd likely 4! those hands, trying to GII pre, as he does have a history of that already. The question is what would he raise for $10 that can snap call for an additional $20 on top coming from a tight player who's likely unusually strong given the positional disadvantage? 86? No way. J8? Vaguely possible, but I highly doubt these hands call for another $20 pre. JJ? Certainly. Ax? AT? T9? Yes. TT? 99? 77? I could see him calling behind, expecting he could take these to the river and beat a whiffed Big Slick that c-bets, perhaps gets stubborn and barrels two or three streets. If that's what he was intending to do, then he got lucky and flopped a set by "accident".

He's repping he can beat an overpair here. Could he put another $100 out there without actually being able to do that? You beat a pair of jacks, TPTK, a flush draw, and air, and that's about it. Given this much doubt as to whether he could make a big raise with TPTK knowing that a bigger pair could be out, air, or semibluff a flush draw, it's a reluctant lay-down. This looks a lot like a value raise that wants to commit stacks.

This is a really strange sizing at 2.5x. $60 to win $200 (3.3-1). It's too small of a sizing to be a semi-bluff. And it's too small a sizing to price out draws. If this guy is competent I fold and assume he has some sort of monster. If he's clueless I just gii expecting him to have a TPTK type hand. This is a situation where I'm basing my entire decision on live reads. I honestly have no idea what I'd do in this spot in a vacuum. Leaning towards a fold.

Grunch...

He could have combo draws, which are doing very well against us, or he could have us smashed, agree this flop very bad for Qq, his sizing so small it looks to be value...

I'm fine w a fold here

Think I have a problem wanting to call down bluffers even though they may not be bluffing in a given spot and they may not be bluffing against me.

Thanks for the responses everyone

Results:

Pf is too small, I'd go 45 but 40 is fine. Tank call the flop is bad, it's either a shove or fold. And please don't show if you fold