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Overpair and flush draw facing a flop overbet Overpair and flush draw facing a flop overbet

01-12-2017 , 10:45 AM
1/2 club game

V1 ($200) - 50-ish woman. Thinking player, TAG, a bit ABC. Sizes bets pre to small then c-bets too much, but not a ton of other obvious leaks. Capable of 3-betting with non-nutted value hands, and saw her cold 4-bet with TT this session.

H (covers) - 35 y.o. man, plays a lot with V1 over the years. She should respect my game, but I'm certainly looser than she is which I'm sure she recognizes. I 3-bet her earlier this session and she folded.

One limp to H in the HJ, who has QsQc. H raises to $15 (my standard sizing with one limper). V 3-bets to $40 on the button. H calls.

Anyone like a 4-bet pre? I'm ranging her on something like TT+, AK, and some combos of AQ, AJ and KQ. Feels like a 4-bet gets folds from the hands I'm beating and snapped off by AK, KK and AA, though maybe also gets called by JJ. 4-betting does negate my positional disadvantage, though that seems less important now that SPR is 2:1.

Flop ($80) - 832ccc. H has the Qc. H checks, V shoves for $160 total. Hero?

Note that while I thought V would c-bet pretty much her whole range here, I've played a lot of hours with her and don't think I've ever seen her overbet.
Overpair and flush draw facing a flop overbet Quote
01-12-2017 , 11:38 AM
Given your range for her, I think it's an easy call.

I don't think she's shoving with AA or KK with a club so you can't be crushed and I don't think you can eliminate too much else from her preflop range. She either has AA/KK with no club, AK with a club, sometimes AQ/AJ/KQ with a club, I think a lot of players would also shove JJ/TT with or without a club here.

The shove is out of character but in this situation it does make sense for a lot of her range (strong but vulnerable hands).
Overpair and flush draw facing a flop overbet Quote
01-12-2017 , 11:46 AM
I think this is a pretty easy call....if she has aa or kk you got unlucky. She could be doing this with jj tt 99 with or without a club ak/aq with club. I doubt she ships a made flush.

I probably 4b pre to like 95. And ship all flops that don't have both a and k.
Overpair and flush draw facing a flop overbet Quote
01-12-2017 , 11:59 AM
I have a tough time justifying a call here. I agree with your analysis that 4-betting isn't great because you are almost never ahead going to the flop if villain calls. Also, I think you are likely going to see a 5-bet shove from the top of villain's range (AA, KK) which puts you in a bad spot, and even if villain just calls you are likely to see a shove on the flop due to stack sizes. As for the flop overbet, based on your description that villain is a "thinking player" I would say that a shove here means AA or KK with the flush draw or AcKc, maybe AcQc. I can't see villain making a 2X pot bluff after you 3-bet in to her pre-flop, and I also don't think villain is a weak enough player to value-shove with anything that you beat (99-JJ) based on your description that she respects you and is fairly TAG/solid. I would say her range after calling your 3-bet is something like 99+, AJs+,KQs+, and I don't see her turning any of the hands you beat in to a bluff here, especially given that she overbet so huge. Based on this, I would say you are either drawing dead to AcQc, basically dead to AcKc, or are dominated by KKc, AAc and have 5-10% equity. The only hand she could have that you are ahead of is JJc imo, which doesn't give you enough equity enough to make this a call . Long story short, H is basically bluff catching, and I'm not convinced V is bluffing often enough to justify a call in this spot.
Overpair and flush draw facing a flop overbet Quote
01-12-2017 , 12:09 PM
I'd Put her on a range of 99-QQ, KK-AA likely no clubs based on her sizing. She could also be doing this with AQ-AK w/ a club draw.

If she is a thinking player this is a really good spot for her to 3bet light so she could show up with some hands that might surprise you.

Given that you're perceived as loose, you're underrepped and at the top of your range it's a call. Occasionally you'll run into KK but that's poker.
Overpair and flush draw facing a flop overbet Quote
01-12-2017 , 01:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by themanfromdavan
I have a tough time justifying a call here. I agree with your analysis that 4-betting isn't great because you are almost never ahead going to the flop if villain calls. Also, I think you are likely going to see a 5-bet shove from the top of villain's range (AA, KK) which puts you in a bad spot, and even if villain just calls you are likely to see a shove on the flop due to stack sizes. As for the flop overbet, based on your description that villain is a "thinking player" I would say that a shove here means AA or KK with the flush draw or AcKc, maybe AcQc. I can't see villain making a 2X pot bluff after you 3-bet in to her pre-flop, and I also don't think villain is a weak enough player to value-shove with anything that you beat (99-JJ) based on your description that she respects you and is fairly TAG/solid. I would say her range after calling your 3-bet is something like 99+, AJs+,KQs+, and I don't see her turning any of the hands you beat in to a bluff here, especially given that she overbet so huge. Based on this, I would say you are either drawing dead to AcQc, basically dead to AcKc, or are dominated by KKc, AAc and have 5-10% equity. The only hand she could have that you are ahead of is JJc imo, which doesn't give you enough equity enough to make this a call . Long story short, H is basically bluff catching, and I'm not convinced V is bluffing often enough to justify a call in this spot.
He called her 3! He did not 3!

I think your analysis will be way different given this.
Overpair and flush draw facing a flop overbet Quote
01-12-2017 , 02:57 PM
Played fine. I don't love a 4-bet because villain folds all worse hands. The SPR will be low enough to gii on favorable flops, negating your positional disadvantage.

Trivial call. Pretty good flop. Villain bombs a ton of overpairs and AcXx hands. Very unlikely she shoves a made flush and would go for value over two streets.
Overpair and flush draw facing a flop overbet Quote
01-12-2017 , 02:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by patmister1
Occasionally you'll run into KK but that's poker.
Call the floor, get your money back, and ask for a new deck.
Overpair and flush draw facing a flop overbet Quote
01-12-2017 , 04:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nice_Guy_Eddie
Call the floor, get your money back, and ask for a new deck.
Lol you never had suited kings bruh
Overpair and flush draw facing a flop overbet Quote
01-13-2017 , 02:17 PM
Results - I think a bit and call and V shows AdQd. People gave me a bit of a hard time that I was so grudging with my call, and in retrospect given my redraw this is a pretty easy spot to gii. Maybe a harder decision without the Qc.
Overpair and flush draw facing a flop overbet Quote

      
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