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Overpair to a flop with lots of action Overpair to a flop with lots of action

11-28-2018 , 09:15 PM
£1/£1 home game with tons of action, 8-player table, average stacks around £125. I open to £5 UTG with 99 and get 4 callers, HJ, CO, Btn, and BB.

Flop: 567
SB checks
I check
UTG+2 checks
CO checks
Btn shoves for £140! and he's got everyone covered.
BB calls

I'm thinking TT-AA should have 3b preflop. Apart from that I have little to go on. Since I had 99, it's hard to put him on 89, so maybe 34? Big flush draws with A8 or A4. BB has been playing a bit loose so I've got no idea what he's playing. If he's hit his set or two pair, that's just lucky for him. So I'm blocking the nut straight, I have one heart and an overpair.

Here's my question. In a game like this, with a lot of action where people are playing really loose, should I ever be folding 99s? Even if I'm ahead, with such a multiway pot my equity will drop with every caller since they might have overcards. What do you think? Thank you!

Last edited by Garick; 11-29-2018 at 08:39 AM. Reason: removed results
Overpair to a flop with lots of action Quote
11-29-2018 , 08:52 AM
Welcome to the forum, OP. In the future, please don't include results, as they bias people's responses. I edited them out.

As for your question, I'm far more worried about each additional caller adding to the chance that we're up against a flopped 2p+ than I am about them having overcards. The amount of equity overcards suck up is nothing compared to the amount of EV their call adds to the pot.

That said, even in a game this wild, that cold flop shove is usually for protection on a board this wet, so I'd weight BTN's range heavily towards 2p and sets, with occasional small overpairs that didn't 3-bet pre, and even more occasional semi-bluffs just playing weird. If he's really afraid of draws, there could even be a combo or two of straights with no hearts.

BB is almost always on a draw here unless he's confident that someone will bet this board and he planned to c/r, in which case there is some 2p and sets in his range as well.

I put you at about 20% equity against their ranges. The worst part is that usually if the board bricks out you'll lose to BTN, and if it doesn't you'll often lose to BB. Assuming that my ranges are correct, this is a fold.
Overpair to a flop with lots of action Quote
11-30-2018 , 03:18 AM
Once BB calls, I'm letting it go quite comfortably.

I'd be really hating life though if we were last to act and everyone else folded. This would be tough.
Overpair to a flop with lots of action Quote
11-30-2018 , 05:40 AM
Flop check is fine, dont particularly like betting.

Ap easy fold when BB overcalls, if they showed you some ******ed hands which you were a favorite against you just got unlucky. Their collective ranges have you smashed here
Overpair to a flop with lots of action Quote
11-30-2018 , 09:49 AM
i would bet flop

as played you kind of have to fold.
Overpair to a flop with lots of action Quote
11-30-2018 , 01:52 PM
PF, you should not be happy about getting 4 callers (and I'm not surprised to see so many people calling 5x at a loose home game). Size up.

On flop, why did you check? 99 is one of the best hands to bet here IMO as you benefit from equity denial against overcards *and* block the nuts. I would have bet, and evaluated if I got raised.

AP, it looks like BTN shoved 140 into a 25 pot. This is an insane play which is *often* a flush draw in my games but it's sometimes 2-pair/set overbetting for protection. This depends heavily on reads (young LAG/maniac vs. older MAWG).

Heads up, I'd probably end up calling.

But with BB calling, you have an easy fold. It's very hard for you to beat both players who want to put in so much money OTF. At best, you're slightly ahead.
Overpair to a flop with lots of action Quote
11-30-2018 , 04:05 PM
just put the units of the bets. Don't include if it is pounds, yen, euros, or dollars. It doesn't matter
Overpair to a flop with lots of action Quote
11-30-2018 , 10:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by krilleater
PF, you should not be happy about getting 4 callers (and I'm not surprised to see so many people calling 5x at a loose home game). Size up.

On flop, why did you check? 99 is one of the best hands to bet here IMO as you benefit from equity denial against overcards *and* block the nuts. I would have bet, and evaluated if I got raised.

AP, it looks like BTN shoved 140 into a 25 pot. This is an insane play which is *often* a flush draw in my games but it's sometimes 2-pair/set overbetting for protection. This depends heavily on reads (young LAG/maniac vs. older MAWG).

Heads up, I'd probably end up calling.

But with BB calling, you have an easy fold. It's very hard for you to beat both players who want to put in so much money OTF. At best, you're slightly ahead.
Theres nothing to evaluate if you get raised. It’s a snap fold
Overpair to a flop with lots of action Quote
11-30-2018 , 10:30 PM
Standard fold as played
Overpair to a flop with lots of action Quote
12-01-2018 , 05:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Minatorr
Theres nothing to evaluate if you get raised. It’s a snap fold
Depends on the players. I know some who absolutely love to jam a flush draw but slow-play everything else. I definitely don't think it's a snap fold in that situation.

AP, it's a pretty easy fold.
Overpair to a flop with lots of action Quote
12-02-2018 , 04:48 PM
Thanks Garick. Will leave out results next time.
Overpair to a flop with lots of action Quote
12-02-2018 , 04:49 PM
Thanks for all the replies and details explanations. Fold seems to be the consensus.
Overpair to a flop with lots of action Quote

      
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