$1/2, $300 max. $270 effective, hero covers.

Villain sat down about 1/2 hour ago, has dragged a few smallish pots but hasn't shown down a hand. Late 20's Indian guy. When he's involved, he's opening mostly, and it seems he understands the value of position.

Hero ($475 - late 30's white guy), winning image, has been very active at this very loose/passive, fit-or-fold table. Opening a ton (95% for straight value - been getting dealt a ton of strong hands), but has added some lighter opens for thin value in the right spots. The player to my immediate left is loudly complaining I'm raising his small blind a ton. I'm fairly certain the villain picks up on this.

OTTH

1 EP limp, CO limps, hero raises to $14 OTB with black JJ. Villain calls in the BB. EP limper folds, CO limper calls.

Flop ($45):
T T 7

Checked to hero who bets $35. Villain calls, CO folds.

Turn ($115): 9

Villain checks, hero bets $60.

Villain thinks for 15 seconds and moves in for $221 total.

Hero?

I'll add my thoughts on each street as the conversation goes along.

Ugh. Gross spot OP. I Grunch fold TBH. Lots of Q10, A10, J10, K10. Possibly 99, 77. Several straight options 68s, j8s. He doesn't seem the type to slowplay QQ+ in this spot. Your line looks strong despite your loose image. Fold

Hard to envision you being ahead of anything here. J8 (unlikely) and 86 just got there. Tx was already there. Feels more like Tx to me that didn't raise the flop because it wanted one more bet out of you on the turn to try to commit you.

Tossing this and obviously not showing.

This could be a semi-bluff with a draw, and you block the straight draw. If it isn't then he has you crushed. I would fold. Villain has not shown signs of being aggressive/bluffy enough for calling to be good.

You need to call a shove with about 45% of your betting range for balance. You have 17 combos of hands that are a ten or better (10 combos of ATs-JTs and T8s, 1 combo of T9s, 6 combos of 99/77) which are easy calls. If you bet/fold all of your overpairs, that's 16 combos. If you are betting more than 5 combos of draws or straight bluffs, you would need more calling hands. I want to say I would rather call this bet with a hand like AcKc than JJ, since it has more outs against a bare ten and still wins against unpaired bluffs. Certainly all your bigger overpairs are strictly better calls than JJ. So I have a hard time believing you are bluffing enough that JJ needs to be called off here.

Is there a case for exploitively calling this villain? Pros are that he likely thinks you are playing aggressive and he may think you will have a hard time calling enough here (as discussed above though, this doesn't make a lot of sense, as he would need to be targetting overpairs or big draws to fold unless you are bluffing a TON here) and that the board is wet so he has a lot of draws. Cons are that he has quite a few value hands in his range, so he needs to bluff a lot to be out of balance and that a lot of his bluffs have reasonable equity against JJ (as many as 14 outs with 2 overs and clubs).

So... fold! I thought about checking the turn, but I think he is calling with lots worse and we have a comfortable fold against a raise, so betting is good.

Pre & Flop standard.

Turn: Not fond of a b/f plan on the turn here. My plan would be to b/c OR more typically check with the intention of calling or b/f on most rivers. I like a check because Flop was 3-way and SPR for this Villain was over 6 after rake (SPR 5.7 if unraked). Not usually excited about committing stacks on this board with this Villain. Also, Villains make all sorts of nonsensical (and sometimes reasonable) river bluffs when we take the line of raise IP pre, cbet, check back the turn.

AP, competent Villain could mean range is dominated by QQ- pre. If we assume turn action narrows range mostly to QQ-66, we're a coin flip against that range. We need 41% equity. If Villain range includes all suited Broadways that either have a T or a flush draw as well as QQ-66, we have 44% equity, so prefer b/c over b/f.

You can only bet the turn here if you are fine with mucking to a jam. By betting the turn you are portraying significant strength and no ones going to shove on you with a draw on a paired board. He most likely has the 10, maybe has the straight. If you think that there is enough of a metagame that he could jam light here I think you have to check the turn with a plan of calling most river bets.

Tx is possible, he's got plenty of AT-QT in his range I think.

He struck me as someone who would fast play a T due to the draw-heavy board but we can't discount it.

89 is a possibility (pair + straight draw) = 16 combos
AT-QT, T9 = roughly 30 combos
77 = 3 combos
99 = 3 combos
97 = roughly 24 combos
AQ/AJcc = 2 combos

Am I missing combos?

This occurred to me as well. We block some of the flush/overs draws as well.

There had been spots where I was fairly certain he bluffed in smaller pots against passive opponents but I'm not sure he wants to bluff in a larger pot.

Nah, no metagame considerations here. First time I've seen this villain. Only played with him for 30 minutes. Considering 6th level ish against this guy without history is mental masturbation.

I see how you're thinking, but I think his range given the action is much narrower than QQ-66. I could be wrong, but I don't think he is taking this line with something like 88 because I have a T in my range as well.

True, he could be spazzing, but I have no reason to think he would or wouldn't.

97 makes no sense to shove since he would be counterfeited. Toss those combos out the window.

I also think you have to severely discount the 98 combos. Is he really gonna spaz like that on a paired board when 2 of his straight outs are dirty due to the flush draw on board? I would think the flop is the time to raise an OESD when his equity is 2x as high.

Maybe I am projecting, but I have severely cut back on how aggressive I play straight draws when 2/8 outs are dirty. In my experience, turn shoves are generally weighted towards value rather than draws, but nothing at 1/2 surprises me.

Still think he has Tx here.

Good point with 97. I agree, he's not shoving those.

Still, this is $1/2 and there is a fair amout of pair/SD combos shoving here thinking they have some FE.

This is exactly how the typical $1/2 player plays a ten. Easy bet/fold.

Your Villain, so I can go with your ranges. But, I'd expect a "competent Villain who seems to understand the value of position" to be calling a preflop raise in the BB with QQ, 88, or 66 more often than with 98o.

Are you betting flop for value or to protect your hand? I'd check flop disguise strength of my hand and not start building a pot when I won't know what to do if I get raised by a Tx or flush draw, or two pair range.

For value. I can get called by worse.

I'd expect this villain to 3-bet a majority of the time with QQ and flat with 88 & 66. 98o is a stretch, but I wouldn't be surprised for him to call 98 suited.

You said 16 combos (s/b 12 on the turn), that includes 98o obviously. He has 3 combos of 98s on the turn.

You are beat here villain pretty much always has at least a T. Unless you get some read that he is aggro out of control lay it down. I think turn should be a check, betting for value is to thin here. He can only call with clubs, 89, and maybe 88/A7 Would rather check then bet if checked to on river or bluff catch non club rivers.

Also lol on balance discussion this is llsnl. We should be playing exploitively it's fine to be totally unbalanced on turn

+1. Nice summary.

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Bet on flop is fine, turn check for pot control, call reasonably sized non-club river bet. V has T here a fair amount but it's a pretty small pot and I don't mind letting him have a free card on the turn for the FD. JJ moves from showdown value to bluffcatcher if club hits on the river and he bets so he makes no money in a spot where he should have made more to justify chasing the flush.

I think a check for pot control is better on the turn given the number of combos V could donk into us if we appear to have given up on the hand and there are so many cards that we hate on the turn that V could exploit assuming we have AKnotcc which we would have definitely c-bet on the flop.

Nice analysis.

I think a complete discussion can be centered around "When is thin value betting too thin?"