Overpair on dangerous board OOP
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 232
1/2 game
Effective stacks 200
JJ
I raise to 8 in HJ, good player calls in CO, both blinds call
Flop 8c6c5d
Blinds check, I check, CO bets 10, blinds fold, I call
Turn the 8s
I check, CO bets 25 at ~50 pot
What should I do?
I have played a lot with CO. He is generally tight but also very tricky, very capable of bluffing here and on river, he knows my game well and sees me as quite tight
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 40,336
I'd just bet this flop, against 3 opponents you really need to deny them equity.
We need a bit more info on CO - what you think he might have for his preflop call, the $10 into $32 bet OTF, etc. Your description of him amounts to "sort of tight but also tricky and bluffy" which doesn't narrow down at all what he could have at any point here.
In a vacuum I'm calling, because the small flop bet probably rules out him having flopped a set, and there's just no reason to think he has an 8. We're also up near the top of our range for check/calling a less than 1/3 pot bet OTF. In fact, I'm above the top of my range, it's not possible for me to be this strong here.
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 232
Yes I would normally bet this flop. I have been going through a bad downswing and playing without confidence, been zagging when should have been zagging.
Am definitely at the top of my range here!
Usually in this spot I have just got a couple of overcards. CO knows this and will think a bet of 10 is enough to make me fold (or he can min-barrel turn) and a small flop bet will minimise his losses if the blinds are trapping.
He most likely has small made hands or draws here, but I think he can make this play with big made hands.
Nut FDs, combo draws + one pair hands are most likely.
Made straights, sets and 2p are also possible with him, even though a bigger bet would seem much better for him then. In equity calculations I guess I would discount these hands somewhat.
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 232
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 232
That was literally a case of me zagging when I should have been zigging
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 726
What Range of hands do you put your opponent on? Has he rarely been raising, or mixing it up a lot. I think we can assume all Pocket pairs, except less likely Jacks of course. 8X hands are also possible. I think big pocket pairs or less likely, but not impossible because he didn’t 3 bet. I would expect a lot of 4/5, maybe 5/7 hands to take this line also.
I think your hand is too good to fold on the turn, and you played the flop passively when you should have bet. Call turn, and reevaluate on the river if a 3,4, 9, 10 or club doesn’t peel.
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 40,336
Yeah, I would discount sets/straights/two pairs pretty heavily, I just don't buy he bets 1/3 pot into three players with them.
The key thing about the flop bet is that his sizing is designed entirely against the blinds. You're irrelevant, as far as he's concerned you are check folding. Imagine you weren't in the hand and it was just the blinds checking to him in a $32 pot. What do you think he'd bet with a set, or even just top pair? Not $10, right? It seems like the $10 bet was just designed to get some people to fold cheaply and see what happens. So while he could have an eight, it doesn't seem super likely.
Check call and then check call most rivers. A club river will be hard to play. Honestly though I think I'm going to check call everything, what with being above the top of my range.
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 232
AP I’d say I should check call the turn. With a club river I would seriously consider a check fold. With a river 4 or 9 I would also consider a check fold. But he could be turning a hand lie As5s into a bluff with those rivers.
Part of the reason for me to c/c turn is to induce a lot of river bluffs from him. I like this probably even more when the river bricks, as an 8 is probably less likely here than a draw.
Btw, with our history, after my flop c/c he is probably putting me on an overpair, even though the normal flop play from me would be to bet that.
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 232
The above post was a bit inelegant.
Simplest to say - I think I should c/c turn and evaluate river.
Brick river - the 8s he’s calling me with pre are probably only 89 suited and 78 suited = 4 combos. Missed flush and straight draws are many more combos, so I should call. There are one pair bluff follow throughs in his range too.
Flush or straightening rivers - he could be bluffing these with a decent amount of his range. C/c may well be best for me.
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 232
Chris, I dig what you’re saying about the 8 (and straights/sets/2p) being unlikely with his 1/3 pot size flop bet. I think that would definitely be true of most players.
But I think part of this guys ‘trickiness’ can be to bet small here with those holdings. I think there can be some merit to it: holding an 8, he can cheaply fold out weak hands like two overs. He can balance this by doing the same with straights/sets/2p, when he is at least building the pot somewhat, and he can re-evaluate on dangerous turns. And the same with draws, where he can hit on the turn and be in a good spot to get more value in position.
I know that might sound a bit unlikely but I feel it’s possible for this player to bet small with all those hand types.
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 232
RESULT: I c/folded the turn. He showed the 4c. I guess he had Ac4c or a pocket pair of 4's. I had been running super-bad and decided I'd look for a better spot than a tricky spot against this tough opponent. Reads on the river would be important here, and this guy is tough to read.
I should have definitely c/c the turn and evaluate river. Lots of spots where he bluffs river (he has recently done this to me) - I guess I should see this as an extra reason to call the turn (although he is a good player who will bluff the river a 'correct frequency' rather than a spewy bluffer).
When I put a very wide range of villain hands in an equity calculator I get 60% as my equity. I think generally I've been really underestimating overpair equities on draw-heavy boards.