1/3 game on a Friday night. I haven't been playing much due to more run-bad than run-good lately.

Villain has been involved in three noteworthy hands. The first did not go to showdown but it was a limped pot. Villain, OOP, bet $8, $6, and $5 on each street. His opponent folded on the river.

Hand #2. V 3-bet preflop $22, got two callers, saw a J-hi flop, bet $50 both call, he bet $150 on the turn when a Q came, and called off about $300 more when his opponent check-raised all-in. He called, his opponent showed QJ, and he mucked AA face-up.

Hand #3. I missed most of the hand, but I saw him show down K3hh from EP after another ridiculously tiny bet on the river. He missed a flush draw but picked up a 3 OTT and it was good.

I also saw him raise once more to $22, and he didn't show but I think he had KK. I saw him limp-call almost every time regardless of position and show down trash.

OTTH

$325 effective. V covers by about $100 after adding $200 back on after the AA hand. Two limpers and Hero raises to $20 in the HJ with J J. Three to the flop.

Flop ($60): 7 8 3

Checks to Hero, bets $50, 1 fold, V quickly says all-in.

Hero ????

Easy call as V appears to have reverse strength tell.

Here are my assumptions:
1) Its unlikely he has a better overpair given he limped
2) He is definitely limp/calling his small PPs/SCs, maybe even non-suited connectors, also random other stuff like any ace, stuff like K8, T8, etc
3) He is C/Cing his one pair hands and C/Cing or C/Fing his pocket underpairs

Based on that there's 2 questions:
1) is this guy crazy enough to CR overbet stack off with 99-JJ here?
-I wouldn't expect your population 1/3 player to do that, and especially not this guy since he just learned the hard way with aces that overpairs aren't always good for stacks and you bet into 2 players
2) is he crazy enough to CR overbet bluff all-in with an OESD or even air?
-I don't see a read above to indicate this, and wouldn't expect a population 1/3 player to do this especially since you bet into 2 players

So I'd feel great about folding weighting his range heavily to sets and 87. You need like ~35-40% equity vs. his range to call here, and I just don't see draws or worse overpairs showing up here even close to enough to make this a profitable call.

Bet 30. I'm not calling a shove.

Did V c/r your or is he IP? I kinda read it as he is a limp/caller, but it's unclear what positions are other than you being HJ

Regardless, judging by his previous HH, he's not making big plays unless he has descent holdings. Probably just let it go. Plus I think your flop cbet is a little big. You want 8x and 7x to call you. Or you should...

He's got all sets + 87. Only things you beat that he might do this with is 99 and TT, if he plays them like that

Flop too big. Call or fold are both close in EV.

+1

Half pot is fine for this flop. Adjust your bet sizing to the wetness of the flop and your opponents' ranges. As played I'm sigh folding absent a better read on what his limp/call and x/r ranges look like.

This is a snap call. Sorry you lost

I don't think V has reverse strength tell, I think he is playing face up. Big bets = "big hands" in his mind even though we see that 1pair isn't actually a big hand this V does.

I think this guy is also potentially tilted after getting AA cracked. This makes his bluff % go up and decreases his threshold for what is a "big hand".

I doubt V limps TT ever and I expect he probably raises 99 in tilted state too. That takes away 12 combos you can beat. At the same time I think there's a chance this type of villain shoves 8X here or T9/65/96.

Trouble is V easily has all 87 combos so, with sets that gives him 18 combos that have you crushed. He needs quite a lot of 8X/T9/65 to make it a +EV call.

The final spanner in the works is if his tilt has caused him to start limp calling JJ+ and trying to gii postflop. It makes no sense but it is the kind of thing fish do. However, this would likely reinstate the TT/99 combos too so it balances out.

It is good you block two of his outs for semibluffs with T9/96 so he only has 25% equity. In total he has 48 combos of OESD. He has A8 K8 J8 T8 98 for 54 combos of 8X. Clearly he doesn't have to shove any where near 100% of the time with his 8X/OESD to make your call +EV.

Pot is 60+50+255=365 with 255 behind. You have to win 255/(255+365) = 42% to break even. You have back door straight draws and over set outs vs sets and the 3 or turn card can pair on board to counterfeit his 2pair so maybe you have 10%-15% equity vs his made hands. His 8X/OESD have 20%-35% equity and his TT/99 have only 10% equity.

If he has half his TT/99 combos you need him to have enough 8X/OESD to balance out 12 more combos of 2pair+ that's something around 1/3rd of his 102 available combos. Surely fishy player like this goes crazy at least 1/3rd of the time when a bit tilted?

I'd call, accepting it is close but it's less than 100bb so I'm not too bothered.


I would raise much bigger preflop though and bet closer to 1/2 pot on flop.

Preflop I attempt to get in 10% of stacks if I think I can with TP type hands. Will someone call $30 preflop at this table? I probably try it and see.

Awkward spot now on the flop. We have an SPR of 5 (stacks can go in trivially postflop, in fact it will be difficult not playing for them) and yet we only got in 6% of stacks preflop. I think we have to have a plan right away. Are we comfortable playing for stacks? If so, we could get this done in 2 streets by slight overbets, although board isn't that drawy, so perhaps 3 streets worth of betting is better. Do we not want to play for stacks? If so, a smaller bet might be best and a reevaluate on the turn.

As played, this guy has only gotten aggro for big bets when he thinks he has a big hand. Does he consider 8x a big hand? Doubt it. Will he go nuts with TT/99? Probably more likely with tarping AA-JJ? And of course sets / two pair.

For me the whole decision comes down to the plan I made on the flop. Was I attempting to stack off? Then I call. If not, then I fold.

Gmakeaplan,stickwithit,imoG

Except for the lack of evidence of V having a reverse strength tell.

Against some 1/3 and 2/5 live players, I'll happily stack off an overpair on an 873r flop, since their x/raising range will contain a lot of 8x, T9 and 65 hands. But against this specific villain and given your huge flop Cbet sizing, I think it's safe to say he's not x/raising you here without 2 pairs or better, so I'm happy to fold to this raise.

Let's stick to the poker. Where's the evidence V has a reverse strength tell?

Still searching for that reverse strength tell?

WTF? This thread is 3 years old and brought it up again why?

I prefer to just overlimp the HJ to see what happens; I still have almost half the table to react preflop behind me, 2 of which can end up in position. But that's my style.

Even going just 3ways to the flop with these stacks just sets up so many dicey situations because the SPR is only 5 (which means stacks can go in trivially postflop) and yet we still gave both opponents fairly decent IO of 17+. At least we ended up in position, but it's still a very awkward SPR to work, imo.

If flop hadda contained a flush draw, you could argue we might just feel committed here (for better or worse thanks to preflop) and should be overbetting the flop to jam the rest in on the turn. But without a flush draw, I'm less likely to consider myself committed. So I probably bet fairly small (no more than 1/2 PSB) and go from there. Our large bet is bringing commitment immediately into play.

As played, Villain has been betting small with weak hands and betting large with what he thinks our big hands. I'm assuming Villain was one of the limpers? Would he raise TT/99 preflop first in, or just limp/call them? Does he really seem the type to be aggro with an OESD? Would he play A8 like this against the preflop raiser who's betting large into 2 opponents? Overall, I think I would lean to a nit fold but it really is dependent on whether you feel we should be committed against this guy and how clueless versus non-clueless he is in general.

ETA: Lol, didn't realize this was a zombie thread. My preflop style has changed slightly, although I'm also cool with a huge raise here like I originally suggested (and matches another poster's suggestion as well).

Gpreflopislikelymoredifficultthanyouthinkitis,imoG

Be kind... Probably a lonely week for him.