Alright y'all, not a super-complex spot here, but one that I wasn't sure about and could use some opinions on.

1/2 NL at Harrahs Cherokee on a Friday night. About $300 effective.

I only played with villain for an hour or so, but from what I could tell she was a very conservative, unstudied player. Never put much money in the pot voluntarily, just a fairly typical nervous 1/2 player who's new to the game.

I open KhKd to $10 from early position. Villain 3-bets to $20 from the SB, everyone else folds. I 4-bet to $60. Looking back, I probably should have made it a little more here. She calls fairly quickly.

Flop comes Qc10d3s and she leads out for $60 and I make a super tight fold.

My thought process at the time: this player type doesn't do much 3-betting at all. I feel that even the 2x 3bet implies a very strong range as well as the seemingly easy call of the 4-bet. For me, I've got her on JJ+, maybe 10's, maybe AK.

On the flop, I can't see her betting $60 here with AK, or JJ which are the only hands in her range that I now beat. So I just fold off one bet. If she had less than 100BBs, maybe I just shrug, shove it in there and hope for the best. I know it's a terrible fold from a theoretical perspective, but I feel like theory more or less goes out the window vs this type of player.

Thoughts on this line? Too nitty? Standard? Horrible? Any opinions would be great. Thanks in advance.

Sizing is fine for the 3! to me PF. You're in position, you don't want to push out hands like 10/10 or JJ vs. a tight player. Not a fan of folding here unless you have her on a dead 3! range of QQ+ here. I've made the mistake of tagging some players similarly only to see that they make a move like this with JJ, scared of facing a bet and not knowing what to do so they just donk lead to see where they're at. She might also have AQs.

No way you can lay this down on flop, given your description of her I think you have to make a quick call behind, she's almost always going to give up the hands that you're beating on the turn, and if she keeps firing you can lay it down if you haven't improved on T.

I’m never folding with an spr of 2 here. Pre.... make it like 65-75 pre. I’m going with it on this flop. If villian has better hand. Bad luck. Folding seems terrible here in my opinion.

Sizing is good, call flop. If she's a newer player she'll value AQ on this flop just as much as AA

I get your thought process but if she's really new and nervous and unstudied you are giving her too much credit to range her this way. Many beginners will overvalue AQs here too and definitely donk into you thinking they are good on this flop. Also it's only been an hour, you need a much better read to play this exploitative IMO. I like a call here for this sizing as not to scare V away. She'll likely shut down if hero seems strong and will also likely give other tells of strength or weakness as the hand progresses.

Ok, so I should call the flop. At that point the pot will be 240 and we'll have about 180 left to play for. If she shoves on a blank turn, are we always going with it or can we find a fold?

I don't know where you play, but no villain in my game at these limits that meets OP's description is 3B from the SB with AQ. It almost exclusively QQ+, and often is just KK/AA.

I actually think this is a good fold given the Q on the flop. If you're just clicking buttons and looking at SPRs, then sure get it in.

Obviously this extremely V dependent, but fold seems fine. V isn’t going to exploit you overfolding so I wouldn’t worry about it. V my guy also have pocket 9’s and ‘a pair is a great hand’ so I wouldn’t flame anyone for stacking off here either. If you got the read at the table... go with it, next hand.

If we run the numbers with that board and our KK against a range of:

QQ+, AQo+, AQs+ we are ahead about 57 / 43
JJ+, AKo, AQs+ we are ahead about 57 / 43
QQ+, AKo, AQs+ we are behind about 44 / 56 but are getting odds to call
QQ+, AK we are behind about 44 / 56 but are getting odds to call

So in my opinion we need a strong read to fold. If she can shove a blank turn we can remove JJ but given the 50 or so hands of history and an unpredictable new player maybe KQs even shows up with this line on rare occasion. Not saying I never fold to a turn shove but I'd need a really compelling read. Sometimes you can see a difference in a super strong snap shove from a beginner and a hesitant uncomfortable shove. This nervous newbie probably isn't Hollywooding effectively if at all.

Awful.

Key questions to ask are:
Would villain flat aa, and then decide to lead this flop?
Would villain flat qq, and then lead this flop?

Now its not inpossible but we need to have a specific type of read to justify what is normally a very bad line. *leading aa sometimes for balance ok but check is still standard.

It should seem way more likely for villain to lead aq,kq, ak, and maybe even kk not to mention villains showing up with a bunch of hands hero does not expect.

Call or jam both ok for flop, never fold.

Based on OP's description she doesn't sound like a nit who plays twice a week and just waits for KK+, she just seems like a new player, and new players overvalue hands all the time.

Also in my experience the players who do wait for QQ+ are shipping AA and KK preflop, so if you're comparing her to these players then you're essentially narrowing her range to top set.

I'm not suggesting we click buttons, but I think she shows up here with top pair a lot, and our hand is just too good to fold the flop facing one bet in position.

Everyone likes that 4-bet size? It should be a bit more than $40, given that we have position.

It's a 4-bet pot. We has a big pair. Call on the flop, call the turn shove.