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Over pair raised otf. What to do? Over pair raised otf. What to do?

10-19-2015 , 10:50 AM
Hero is playing 1-3, has been aggressive and has taken down a few pots without having to show down.

V1 seems to overvalue hands (he 3 bet shoved on the flop and lost to tptk/showed top pair).

V2 hit a gutshot after having called a big bet on the flop (otf). Calls a lot, stands out as one of the worst players at the table.

Hero UTG, ($340). KK (spade heart)opens to $15

V1 MP ($380). Calls

V2 BTN ($145) Calls

Flop: QsJs2D

Hero: Leads for $35

V1: Calls

V2: Goes all in for about 130.

Hero???
Over pair raised otf. What to do? Quote
10-19-2015 , 11:06 AM
shove
Over pair raised otf. What to do? Quote
10-19-2015 , 11:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wiffle
shove
+1, hurts a bit that we have Ks but just too many TP type hands and draws we beat.
Over pair raised otf. What to do? Quote
10-19-2015 , 11:28 AM
all in
Over pair raised otf. What to do? Quote
10-19-2015 , 12:15 PM
Against a range of AQ, QQ, JJ, 22 and QJ we have enough equity to profitably get it in, and the situation is almost certainly better than that. Sometimes we run into a slow played monster from V1, but based on the description of him, his range is too wide on the flop to really worry about that.
Over pair raised otf. What to do? Quote
10-19-2015 , 12:23 PM
Based on villain description I think this is a clear shove. Would be better if we had some sort of observation regarding how often this villain raises - we know he loves to chase draws but would he push a draw in this spot? If the answer is yes or we are not sure, shove.
Over pair raised otf. What to do? Quote
10-19-2015 , 01:29 PM
I would often open limp to reraise at loose raisey tables, especially if opponents are tricky postflop. I'm not in love with our result playing OOP in an SPR 7 pot against someone we might not be comfortable folding to thanks to them overvaluing their hand.

I'd probably be in bet/fold mode against V1, so I'd probably also lead out. Will probably need reads on V2. Would he shove here with a hand like TP? Would he play his draws aggro, or just call and try to hit them? In the end, V2 put in too much of his stack preflop to hit a speculative hand, so I probably feel committed against him. V1 probably wouldn't slowplay a monster on a drawy board like this, plus could show up with lots of crap, so I'd probably just jam at this point unless reads on V2 told me otherwise.

GcluelessNLnoobG
Over pair raised otf. What to do? Quote
10-19-2015 , 01:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by biks
Hero UTG, ($340).
V1 MP ($380). Calls
V2 BTN ($145) Calls

Flop: QsJs2D
Surprised by all the horrible responses. The worst possible result is when V2 has us crushed and V1 folds. Even relative noobs know that if two players go AI in front of them, they should have something like the nuts when they call.

The only time calling is worse than RAI is when we're ahead of V1 but he makes a better hand on the turn. This would be very infrequent, esp. given the action.

Last edited by BadlyBeaten; 10-19-2015 at 02:08 PM.
Over pair raised otf. What to do? Quote
10-19-2015 , 02:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadlyBeaten
Surprised by all the horrible responses. The worst possible result is when V2 has us crushed and V1 folds. Even relative noobs know that if two players go AI in front of them, they should have something like the nuts when they call.

The only time calling is worse than RAI is when we're ahead of V1 but he makes a better hand on the turn. This would be very infrequent, esp. given the action.
If we both call, we're only going to be left with 1/2 PSB left (feeling committed?) and there's a crapload of scary turn cards (that could kill our hand while we're feeling commited, or kill our action against a guy who's labelled as overvaluing his hand).

GimoG
Over pair raised otf. What to do? Quote
10-19-2015 , 02:19 PM
It is only 130 more to call. The pot has gotten big enough that V2 would shove in this spot if he has top pair, a flush draw, or an open-ended straight draw. We are ahead of a lot of hands here. It's not ideal that V1 is left to act, but we are ahead of his hand range that calls pre and calls flop. That's why everyone is advocating a shove.
Over pair raised otf. What to do? Quote
10-19-2015 , 03:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadlyBeaten
Surprised by all the horrible responses. The worst possible result is when V2 has us crushed and V1 folds. Even relative noobs know that if two players go AI in front of them, they should have something like the nuts when they call.

The only time calling is worse than RAI is when we're ahead of V1 but he makes a better hand on the turn. This would be very infrequent, esp. given the action.
V2 will call a shove now with spades, KT (yeah only 8combos), T9, maybe AT,AK(ditto). All of these he may fold on the turn UI for $200 more. If he hits we probably aren´t folding.

I´d like to keep him in with 4-7 outers that would otherwise fold though, given he is getting only 5.5-1ish Implied.

It would be nice if you included some ranging/math to back up your opinion instead of just blanket (and a bit ignorant IMO) statements.
Over pair raised otf. What to do? Quote
10-19-2015 , 04:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadlyBeaten
Surprised by all the horrible responses. The worst possible result is when V2 has us crushed and V1 folds. Even relative noobs know that if two players go AI in front of them, they should have something like the nuts when they call.

The only time calling is worse than RAI is when we're ahead of V1 but he makes a better hand on the turn. This would be very infrequent, esp. given the action.
ok bro
Over pair raised otf. What to do? Quote
10-19-2015 , 04:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bodybuilder32
It's not ideal that V1 is left to act, but we are ahead of his hand range that calls pre and calls flop. That's why everyone is advocating a shove.
Of course we're ahead of his range; we're ahead of V2's range, too. That's not the issue.

And what exactly is ideal? If I look up ideal in the dictionary, is there a picture? Maybe the day after I find bigfoot, I'll find ideal.
Over pair raised otf. What to do? Quote
10-19-2015 , 04:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadlyBeaten
Surprised by all the horrible responses. The worst possible result is when V2 has us crushed and V1 folds. Even relative noobs know that if two players go AI in front of them, they should have something like the nuts when they call.

The only time calling is worse than RAI is when we're ahead of V1 but he makes a better hand on the turn. This would be very infrequent, esp. given the action.
Who cares if V2 has us crushed? His range includes a ton of hands that we are beating, while the hands that have us crushed are a teeny tiny portion of that range. I'm folding KK on a QJ2 suited flop in a 3-way pot with these stack sizes approximately never. V1 could easily decide that he wants to gamble with a draw vs two all-ins, and that sounds great to me. He's not calling with KQ once it goes all in -> call anyway.
Over pair raised otf. What to do? Quote
10-19-2015 , 04:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94
the hands that have us crushed are a teeny tiny portion of that range... He's not calling with KQ once it goes all in -> call anyway.
Mr. Pot, meet Mr. Kettle. I think you two should get along.
Over pair raised otf. What to do? Quote
10-19-2015 , 04:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadlyBeaten
Mr. Pot, meet Mr. Kettle. I think you two should get along.
What?

V2 is the short stack that shoved, his range includes all sorts of top pair/second pair/draw hands that we are ahead of. If V2 has us beat with his short stack then cool for him. If V1 has us beat, we're losing our stack because we're not folding to V2's shove. If V1 has a marginally good hand like KQ/AQ/QT he's probably folding whether we shove or flat, but he might call with AQ in either scenario since board is drawy. If V1 has a drawing hand, he's effectively committing himself whether we shove or flat, so we might as well shove.
Over pair raised otf. What to do? Quote
10-19-2015 , 04:53 PM
Shove. Massive EV play in the long run in this spot.
Over pair raised otf. What to do? Quote
10-19-2015 , 05:16 PM
Thanks for all the thoughtful responses.

After the hand played out I felt like I a mistake by not shoving.

I didn't put V1 on a monster and figured there was value in getting him to commit more chips with a marginal hand/didn't fully think it through.

I called V2, V1 proceeded to shove which came as a bit of surprise. I snap called because my hand was too strong considering spr.

Calling twice there for my entire stack lead me to think I made a bad play.

V1 scooped the pot with as5s
V2 showed qd

I left trying to justify my call. In the case that V1 flat calls and we see a blank on the turn I can shove for value.

Could I check fold the 4s turn if he flatted though? Probably not.

Shoving would have been optimal as it would have created some fold equity in a spot where V1 has the most equity in the three way pot.

Thanks again
Over pair raised otf. What to do? Quote
10-19-2015 , 11:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadlyBeaten
Surprised by all the horrible responses. The worst possible result is when V2 has us crushed and V1 folds. Even relative noobs know that if two players go AI in front of them, they should have something like the nuts when they call.
Quote:
Originally Posted by biks
After the hand played out I felt like I a mistake by not shoving.

Shoving would have been optimal as it would have created some fold equity in a spot where V1 has the most equity in the three way pot.
It seems people aren't understanding what badly is trying to say even though it could have been stated more explicitly. You are ahead of both ranges, but V1 probably makes more mistakes if you just call. If he has a trash Qx like Q5s or something you are making him play correctly by shoving the flop. Even a sticky V might throw away top pair when facing two shoves in front of him. He has only committed 50 to the pot and the shove is another 290 to him. He is much more likely to incorrectly call if you just call the 130. If you go this route though you have to shove any turn even if it completes a draw.

In this circumstance when he has A5ss or when he has any other monster draw there is no point worrying about shoving. He is not going to fold to a shove, but you make more money when he has a more marginal hand that he could get sticky with. If he is soo fishy that his calling range for 95 more and 290 is the same then go ahead and shove, but I doubt it.
Over pair raised otf. What to do? Quote
10-20-2015 , 10:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by biks
Shoving would have been optimal as it would have created some fold equity in a spot where V1 has the most equity in the three way pot.
You only ever get fold equity when someone with a better hand folds. If the other player has a worse hand, you want him to call.

There may be infrequent situations where you can't bet big enough to price out a draw. So in those situations, you would prefer the draw to fold rather than call. But in those situations, the draw won't fold anyway, so the line of thought is irrelevant. E.g. fixed limit poker, aka no fold'em hold'em.

We aren't playing against the deck; we're playing against other decision makers. Don't underestimate the fish. It's possible V1 might fold bottom two, but it's unlikely that he'll do it because you want him to.

As far as we can tell, V1 put all his chips in drawing near dead, SPECIFICALLY because you decided to call.

Last edited by BadlyBeaten; 10-20-2015 at 10:43 AM.
Over pair raised otf. What to do? Quote
10-20-2015 , 11:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadlyBeaten
You only ever get fold equity when someone with a better hand folds. If the other player has a worse hand, you want him to call.
This is really wrong.

We want people to fold (even worse hands) if it is a mistake for them to fold relative to them calling.

Ex. There's $10,000,000.00 dollars in the pot. You and your opponent both have $10 left. You're a huge 80/20 fave to win the hand and bet your last $10. Do you want your opponent to call with his worse hand?

GcluelessNLnoobG
Over pair raised otf. What to do? Quote
10-20-2015 , 11:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
Ex. There's $10,000,000.00 dollars in the pot. You and your opponent both have $10 left.
I did a cut and paste so I'll have this available the next time the pot is $10 million and I have $10 in my stack. Did you bother to read the subsequent paragraph?
Over pair raised otf. What to do? Quote
10-20-2015 , 11:47 AM
No, I just read the part which said "If the other player has a worse hand, you want him to call".

Gthisisoftenwrong,notjustin$10,000,000.00potsG
Over pair raised otf. What to do? Quote
10-20-2015 , 12:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadlyBeaten

As far as we can tell, V1 put all his chips in drawing near dead, SPECIFICALLY because you decided to call.
What? V1 had the NFD...
Over pair raised otf. What to do? Quote
10-20-2015 , 12:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
Gthisisoftenwrong,notjustin$10,000,000.00potsG
Um, no, it isn't. The times it is wrong are the exception, not the rule. The vast majority of the bankrolls of the vast majority of winning players comes from value bets.
Over pair raised otf. What to do? Quote

      
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