SB: $1000+ not too much history, but have seen him overbet a few times, and play a lot of pots this session
BB: Buys in for $1000 tight, borderline NIT
MP1: $65 shortstacked weak player
MP2: inconsequential to the hand
HJ: inconsequential to the hand
BTN: $600
PF: OK. Are we the CO or the BTN? I'll assume we are the BTN becasue you don't mention anything about the CO.
F(90): SPR is ~7. I assume that MP1 bet $25 (not raised $25; was there someone who bet and MP raised?). How does MP1 call his own "raise"? I'm confused. Something is not right. Calling is fine hoping to spike an 8 and win a huge pot.
Also, this is not "floating". Floating is when you are heads up and call a bet in position with nothing and plan to take away on a later street.
T(215): Again how does BB raise here? Did you mean he bets $100? Anyway...so the BB, a borderline NIT, bets 1/2P on the turn into the original raiser/cbetter and two other players (Hero and MP2). We have an OESD for 8 outs: 16% (5.3:1) chance to hit. Our implied odds are $215+$100+$460:$100 or about 8:1 (11%). This of course assumes that our club outs are clean. Also, we have to consider that the SB is still left to act. I'd call here.
Last edited by Below Zero; 02-01-2016 at 07:10 PM.
The first bet on a street is a "bet," not a raise. :P
Hero's stack? Is it $600 on the button?
Flop call is a little optimistic and you're not getting the right price against a short stack. This board smacks preflop calling ranges though, so it's pretty likely you'll get callers behind, so it's ok. The same goes for preflop, we're not remotely deep enough with MP to play T9 here unless we're sure the blinds are coming along. I think either street could easily be a fold if you weren't sure other players were coming along.
Turn I think is a call. Raising is bad because of the all-in shortstack, but BB probably has a strong hand (QJ seems likely, or a big slowplayed hand) and we should have good IO against him. We're getting 3.5:1 and are 5:1 to hit, so we need to make up <$200 on the river which will be less than a half-pot bet.
You don't say what the stacks are of MP2 and HJ, but if they are anything remotely like those of MP1 (a lol $65) then this is a really simple fold preflop as we don't have any implied odds this short. Even if MP2 and HJ are large, they would have to be poor players before I come into the pot because otherwise we will all be fighting over a protected pot (which will make it harder to get paid off postflop).
Flop action is confusing. Is it MP1 (preflop raiser) that bets out or is it MP2? Anyways, we're basically the first to call the action with 2 or perhaps 3 players behind us yet to react. If MP1 (the preflop raiser) is the better, he doesn't have enough behind for us to chase our gutshot, so easy fold. If MP2 is the better, then floating here is very dangerous because of the 3 left to react (including MP1 who could easily just ship with his lol stack left). We also have no idea if the big stacks are coming along (which we require in order to have implied odds). If we were much closer to closing the action with some bigger stacks already in then I'd consider a call here getting 5+:1 and thus having to make up about a PSB to breakeven (doable). I'd fold.
On the turn we're getting a little over 3:1 to chase an OESD. However, we still have SB to react. There's also a flush draw on board so some of our outs might not be good / might scare away BB if they complete our OESD. The majority of the pot is protected so it makes no sense to bluff on the flush. We basically have 6 clean outs which we could get paid off on, with a guy behind us who could raise. I'd probably fold again.
ETA: After re-reading BB's description of tight borderline nit, I think this makes the turn an even easier fold. The BB never has a very strong hand here (betting less than 1/2 PSB on an extremely drawy turn) plus nitty him is never going to pay off a river bet (especially our 2 outs that bring a flush) with a weak hand in a protected pot (where he knows we can never be bluffing). This is one of the worst cases to be chasing an OESD (only worse case would be all of this on a paired board).
GfoldingmywaytovictoryG
Last edited by gobbledygeek; 02-03-2016 at 12:46 PM.
