I don't typically do this, but I think this is a very interesting hand and although I am by no means a pro, I'd like to post my personal analysis on this prior to reading everyone's posts so I can get an idea of an honest comparison without changing my mind due to other people's posts.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KneedUrDough
$5/$10 – 7 Handed – 3 Players love to see flops (calling 3bets effortlessly)
V1 – UTG ($2K+) – Very tight, folds a lot, checks behind with big hands on rivers (where he doesn’t have the nuts) dictionary definition of tight-passive
V2 – BTN ($1150) – Young Asian guy, a loose-station that can show some aggression (although usually misplaced) and is a chronic payoff wizard (definite spot in this game)
Hero – BB ($1600) – Good clean image, only showing winners and has not been (caught) getting out of line
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Hero in BB w/ AK
V1 raises to $40, fold, fold, fold, V2 raises to $140, fold, Hero?
*including sizing if you advocate a 4bet
Folding is not an option.
Calling would be kind of silly in my opinion, the reason being you're giving V1 the opportunity to flat and get in with an okay hand (88-JJ, suited or unsuited faces) and it's a pretty standard concept that you're going to want to isolate your opponent before the flop. You don't want to be OOP against someone who is going to slowplay you with TPGK or TPTK when you have AKs and miss the board.
Raising would be best. You can isolate your opponent (V2) into a bad situation for him. From what I understand, he is very LAG, which is perfect for a larger-than-usual bet. With $185 in the pot, I would say a bet around 300-325 would be perfect. It's an easy call for V2 to make, I'm about 85% sure I have a hand that beats him and I know he's going to call. I don't want to bet too high and have him fold. This is the kind of guy that pays your bills.
Raise and prepare your anus for the c-bet.
This is an okay flop. Sure we have the opportunity for a backdoor flush, but let's not bank on that. We have two overs, but a lot of V2's 4bet calling range includes a Jack. From the description, I wouldn't be surprised by AJx, KJx, possibly QJs. So basically we have to play this flop like we have some balls, but still be smart enough to fold given the certain circumstances. The pot is $685, which at first makes me think yeah I should definitely make a call-me bet, mainly because he will call his misses, and raise when he hits the board. With his range including a lot of Jacks, I'm gonna go ahead and advocate a smaller bet, probably around $200 and wait to see a raise. If there's a raise, I'm going to fold, if he flats, I'm going to assume he has a weak hand or missed completely. Let's not forget that chances are, he's going to call a 4-bet with middle pocket pairs. I'm going to go ahead and assume he's not going to call a 4bet with 22. This would obviously be the second worst scenario, BUT it's doubtful that he's going to slow play.
Don't give him the opportunity to bet your check and get you worried about him having a hand. Bet out and respect a raise. Bet $200.
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I just scrolled through the rest of the topic and I guess he never posted the turn or river results. Agh, I like this hand.
What do you guys think about what I'm doing? Like I had mentioned I'm by no means a pro, but I'd like to be critiqued if you find flaws in my logic or play.