Hero is BTN (200$): 22 year old 2/2 reg, tight positional player on FR tables
UTG (covers): Semi decent player, ~28 years old, played with im nl25 years ago and playes 2$/2$ table in casino once a month for fun. semi-tight preflop. Solid UTG-opening range.

Table-dynamics: little to no 3bets without premium (QQ+). Havent seen somebody 3bet/stack off AK yet for fullstack. A few fish at the table stacking of TP and weak draws. Some 50bb stacks.

Hero is BTN with 99.
Action: UTG raises 12, two villains call 12, Hero calls 12.

UTGs opening range should be like:
AJ+, 99+

Flop(52$): JJ3r
UTG checks, villian1 checks, villian2 checks, Hero bets 36$.

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My bet here has the main purpose of taking the pot down and not allowing overcards to improve.
Gameplan was to check every non-9-turn if called and reevaluate river.
Fold to a Turn-lead or raise OTF.
What do you think about this bet?
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UTG calls 36 both villians fold.
Turn(~120$): JJ3 A
Action: UTG checks

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At this point I am pritty sure, I have not the best hand.
UTGs calling-range OTF should be something like:
TT+, AJ, sometimes (rarly) AQ/AK.

Although I think he would have played AJ differently, cbetting the flop or raising me OTF.

I also think that the A is a good bluff-turn-card against level1 thinking villians, if he is on TT-KK.
The question is, how often does he c/c TT-KK in order to make a bluff protitable?
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As played: we checked it down with UTG considering a valuebet for a few sec on blank river but checked instead. I checked behind. UTG showed KK.

I think, I missed a clear bluff spot here. What do you think?
What would be your betsizing on turn / river for a bluff-target of KK in UTGs hand?

I don't think you played It that bad, probably would have to empty the clip to get this player to fold, even then he might not fold

Not a big fan of the flop bet. Would rather check and see what everyone does on the turn.

if you have a read that he pot controls an over pair on a JJ board...(well you do now)...bluffing the Ace would have been fine...

My default read is he had AK AQ or AJ KJs, JJ.....and check called the flop with monster...or strong Ace because every one else checked and you might be steeling....My current reads is that most players don't slow play over pairs even on paired boards into multi way pot.

Since he likes to pot control, I would plan on calling a lot of his raises with position, and make his life miserable....(his cbets will be polarized but unbalanced to the week side so float or raise him a lot and his checks will be pot control so build big pots when he checks)

by my original read the A hits him and checking down is fine...

that fact that he's pot controlling doesn't mean that he's folding

It's all a percentage thing....once I make a read and have made an assumption about what that read means I go with it...If he calls me down with second pair or weak top pair after I over bet the river...I adjust my read...

Sure if I'm lucky I will adjust my read watching him play another player )..but if I insist on waiting for all the ducks to line up before I adjust to players I would almost never adjust....



My current assumption is that players who over pot control on the flop are not happy playing big pots and can be taken off their hands on many tyupes of run outs...if over the next few month I do it lot and find that thats not a good assumption then I will adjust my default assumption....so far this is one of the fastest and most profitable reads I make on players.

There's a big difference between his betting range and calling range. He slow played his KK to trap you. He isn't going to fold because you went in it.

If you think he can fold TT-KK on turn, I would fire a big bet on turn. I don't see him calling flop with AK, AQ there with two people behind and the fact you likely have a PP or Jx. This leaves his range as TT+ (pot controlling against Jx) and AJ. He has TT-KK a ton here, but whether or not he folds turn is the bigger question

I think flop check by UTG is pretty standard here unless up against massive stations. UTG is unlikely to get a lot of action from worse hands (QQ+ 3bets pre) and there aren't any draws out there and he can fold to pressure if someone puts in too much money.

Fire turn.