Quote:
Originally Posted by SABR42
The flaw here is that even if you think you are unlikely to get 3 streets of value, it doesn't necesarily mean that you should start checking back flops. There are many reasons to bet the flop even if you think you don't have a 3-street hand:
1) The board is better for your range than your opponent's range. You should generally always bet in this case because your bluffs will make money.
2) The board may get progressively worse, which favors betting earlier in the hand, as certain cards can make it even harder to get value. This is especially true in position where you can check back on later streets on unfavorable run-outs.
3) Checking "caps" your range and may allow a competent villain to turn hands into bluffs on later streets. This rarely happens at low stakes but as you move up it becomes more of an issue.
4) Your hand may improve to a 3-street hand even if it currently isn't one, or you may get extremely favorable run-outs to continue betting.
In general I lean towards Cbetting this flop as well, however I can see some good reasons to go for a check too. Basically I think it is close and both options are viable.
1. I think most would put hero on a range of QQ+ AK here, and villain on about TT+ AK. Maybe discount some AA from villains range, though a lot of good reg vs reg players wont 4bet here.
So you aren't wrong, but our range is only a bit better than his since JJ has less combos with a J on the flop.
2. Sure, an A, K, or maybe T coming could harm us but the vast majority of turns change nothing. The real problem is do we want to start setting up 3 streets of action/open ourselves up to an uncomfortable flop c/r or is it better to pot control/induce vs villains range.
3. This is the meat of the issue here, capping our range. Most people might only checkback the AK part of their range on this flop, especially vs a non regular. And if villain thinks that then we could check our whole range here and try to induce a bluff from villains AK. Checking might also make it more likely we get 1 street of hero call action from his TT or worse pairs with villain putting us on AK.
4. The chance of hitting a Q wouldn't be enough to sway a check to a bet. And I think this slim chance is counterweighted by the times villain c/r us on the flop with KK/AA and we don't get to see the turn.
All that said I would personally still usually bet this flop, mainly for equity protection against AK. I wouldn't expect to induce villain to bluff his AK often enough for me to give the free card.
I'm fine with betting most of my range and then kinda shutting down. I think we can comfortably fold to a c/r too.
Hehe, I'm totally sitting here arguing with myself about flop bet or check. I still can't decide. In game I would reach for some tells and metagame considerations to choose.
I'd prefer to bet vs straightforward non laggy postflop players, and check vs tricky laggy types.