Quote:
Originally Posted by donkatruck
With no reads, this is a fold. About half of 1/2 random players only do this with AA. It sucks to be in this spot in the first orbit to later find out the NASCAR guy hates money and makes this move with ATC, but it's just not worth it w/o reads IMO.
And you just can't range this by plugging in QQ+, AQ+, because the range skews so heavily to AA. If you run the numbers where half the time he has AA, the other half he has QQ-KK, AQ+, its -EV.
i dont know how you put AQ in his range.
with the dead money in the pot, we need 45.7% equity against his range to breakeven. do the math and the numbers will surprise you. if we put all 6 combos of AA in his range, the last combo of KK, the last 2 combos of AKs, 1 combo of AKo and half the combos of QQ, we have 46.5% equity. add in a couple more AK and a terribly played JJ and it becomes better for us. on top of that, the fact that he shoved instead of 3betting smaller (since AA is the nuts and isnt vulnerable to overcards), this would discount AA somewhat.
we can fold QQ, AKs here, no problem, and would likely be correct to do so. but folding KK here can be a disaster. if we have reads hes a nit or extremely passive without the nuts, then yeah we can fold. otherwise, call